Oregon Ducks at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 2, 7:30 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland · Conference game

#57OREOregon64▲ winner

Final

#50MDMaryland54final

Closing lineORE -1.5✓ ORE covered by 8.5

Closing total146.5Under by 28.5

Season records: Oregon and Maryland
ORE	This season	MD
7-6	Record	7-6
4-9	ATS	6-7
8-5	O/U	9-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ORE 76–75 MD · ✓ ORE (56%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ORE	34	30	64
MD	27	27	54

1st half: ORE 34, MD 27 (ORE by 7). The model had ORE by 1.1 and a total of 70.7 (actual 61).

Team stats

ORE		MD
23-47 49%	Field goals	18-65 28%
5-16 31%	3-pointers	7-35 20%
13-21 62%	Free throws	11-14 79%
40 7 off	Rebounds	37 16 off
12	Assists	7
4	Steals	6
7	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	10
12	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	12
4	Fast-break points	6

Players

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Bittle C	34	16	7	3	6-10	1-3
Kwame Evans Jr. F	33	12	8	1	5-10	0-1
Takai Simpkins G	31	16	7	4	5-10	1-4
Wei Lin G	22	8	2	1	2-5	1-2
Dez Lindsay F	18	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Drew Carter G	18	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Sean Stewart F	14	4	6	1	2-4	0-0
Devon Pryor G	13	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jamari Phillips G	13	6	0	0	2-4	2-4
Ege Demir C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Efe Vatan, Luke Johnson, Oleksandr Kobzystyi, Jackson Shelstad, Miles Stewart

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Solomon Washington F	38	17	12	0	6-14	1-4
Darius Adams G	32	9	4	3	3-15	1-7
Elijah Saunders F	32	3	2	1	1-5	1-4
Andre Mills G	26	4	6	2	1-10	0-4
Isaiah Watts G	23	11	2	0	4-8	3-7
Bench
David Coit G	21	8	0	1	2-9	1-7
Myles Rice G	13	2	2	0	1-3	0-1
George Turkson Jr. G	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Collin Metcalf C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Lukas Sotell, Nick Blake, Aleks Alston, Guillermo Del Pino, Jaziah Harper, Pharrel Payne, Rakease Passmore

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORE -1.5	ORE -1.6	ORE +0.1	W ORE covered
Total	146.5	150.9	Over 4.4	L Under
Projected score	—	ORE 76.3 · MD 74.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -1.1	ORE -7.0
1H total	70.7	61
1H projected score	ORE 35.9 · MD 34.8	ORE 34 · MD 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LWWWW	4-9	31%	0-1	3-5
MD WLWWW	6-7	46%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE UOOOU	8-5	62%	7-6
MD OOOUU	9-4	69%	7-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ORE 1–0 MDORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ORE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 5, 2024-25	MD 79 @ ORE 83	ORE -4.5	MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-931%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

over 8under 5avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-4

69% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W L W W W W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

L L L W L W L L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-469%

O U O O O U O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsMSM	W 95-90	-17.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 24	vsUNLV	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGONZ	L 61-100	+14.5	L −24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsALA	L 72-105	+14.5	L −18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 2	vsWAG	W 89-63	-22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 6	@IOWA	L 64-83	+10.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsMICH	L 83-101	+19.5	W +1.5	163.5	O 184
Dec 20	@UVA	L 72-80	+16.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 28	vsODU	W 73-58	-14.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

MSM

W 95-90

−12.5

UNLV

W 74-67

+4.5

GONZ

L 61-100

−24.5

ALA

L 72-105

−18.5

WAG

W 89-63

+3.5

IOWA

L 64-83

−8.5

MICH

L 83-101

+1.5

UVA

L 72-80

+8.5

ODU

W 73-58

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

MSM

W 95-90

+39.5

UNLV

W 74-67

−23.5

GONZ

L 61-100

+3.5

ALA

L 72-105

+10.5

WAG

W 89-63

+8.5

IOWA

L 64-83

+9.5

MICH

L 83-101

+20.5

UVA

L 72-80

−1.5

ODU

W 73-58

−23.5

over 9under 4avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon Ducks at Maryland Terrapins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon

Maryland

Oregon

Maryland