1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SFA @ LT
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Thomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech
#193SFASF Austin
@
#244LTLouisiana Tech
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SFAThis seasonLT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SFA 71–69 · win probability SFA 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

SFA 4, LT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SFABig
Three-pointers
SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%; LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 39.8% and 33.4% of their shots
SFABig
LT offense vs SFA defense
Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SFA has played the 338th-hardest schedule, LT the 197th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SFABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SFA 14.2%, LT 18.2%. Forced: SFA 17.7%, LT 17.9%
SFASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7; LT 47.4 and allows 48.7
LTSmall
SFA offense vs LT defense
Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings
LTSmall
Home court
LT at home. This season: LT 0-0 at home, SFA 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SFA 30.1, LT 33.1. Allowed: SFA 31.1, LT 36.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SFA 26%, LT 11%. Transfers in: SFA 6, LT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SFA 33.8%, LT 36.4%. Defensive: SFA 70.5%, LT 68.4%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: SFA plays 66.4 a game (298th fastest), LT 65.5 (332nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SFA -1.7—
Total—139.3—
Projected score—SFA 70.5 · LT 68.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSFA -1.1—
1H total65.2—
1H projected scoreSFA 33.2 · LT 32—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SF Austin 0, Louisiana Tech 0, even 5
SF AustinBetterLouisiana Tech
G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36
Even
G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27
G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60
No call
G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
No call
G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52
No call
F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42
No call
F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
SF AustinBetterLouisiana Tech
SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6
LTSmall
LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3
SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4
SFABig
LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.9 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSFA betterLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SF Austin
Guards
M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min
Forwards
E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR
Louisiana Tech
Guards
J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew
Forwards
E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SFALT
Scoring
74.9 #166Points per game67.8 #318
1.13 #88Points per possession1.03 #284
66.4 #298Pace (possessions)65.5 #332
Shooting
51.7 #160Effective FG%47.4 #329
35.8 #713-point %28.6 #359
39.8 #1763-point attempt rate33.4 #310
30.1 #306Free throw rate33.1 #234
Possessions
14.2 #29Turnover rate18.2 #283
33.8 #74Offensive rebound rate36.4 #21
13.1 #209Assists per game11.9 #297
Defense
66.7 #20Points allowed67.8 #30
1.00 #29Points allowed per possession1.04 #75
47.7 #35Opponent effective FG%48.7 #51
30.3 #11Opponent 3-point %33.9 #178
17.7 #116Turnovers forced17.9 #102
70.5 #131Defensive rebound rate68.4 #232
6.9 #136Steals per game6.8 #144
3.7 #118Blocks per game4.6 #31
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa84–89
  • Lvs McNeese59–76
  • Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
  • W@ Incarnate Word76–68
  • W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
  • Wvs Missouri St69–66
  • Wvs MTSU80–69
  • W@ Delaware81–38
  • W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.