Indiana State Sycamores at Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 4:00 PM ETMatthew Knight Arena · at Oregon

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Indiana St and Oregon
INST	This season	ORE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORE 85–66 · win probability ORE 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

INST 1, ORE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OREBig

ORE offense vs INST defense

Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

INST has played the 149th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OREBig

INST offense vs ORE defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings

INSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: INST 52.8 and allows 50.2; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9

ORESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: INST 26.2%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: INST 68.2%, ORE 67.7%

ORESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: INST 19.5%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: INST 14.9%, ORE 15.8%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: INST plays 69.7 a game (131st fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points

ORESmall

Home court

ORE at home. This season: ORE 0-0 at home, INST 0-0 away

ORESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: INST 27.4, ORE 35.0. Allowed: INST 28.7, ORE 32.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: INST 0%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: INST 6, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 45.2% and 42.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORE -18.9	—
Total	—	150.1	—
Projected score	—	INST 65.6 · ORE 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -11.1	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	INST 29.5 · ORE 40.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	10-5	—
ORE WWLWL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: INST away; ORE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21
ORE OUUOU	14-18	44%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ORE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ UIC	W79–63WU

Oregon

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 5	@RUTG	L 85-88	-4.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	vsOSU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 13	@NEB	L 55-90	+10.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsMICH	L 71-81	+18.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 20	vsMSU	L 52-68	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 25	@WASH	L 57-72	+7.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsUCLA	L 57-73	+4.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Feb 1	vsIOWA	L 66-84	+9.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 7	@PUR	L 64-68	+19.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 9	@IU	L 74-92	+10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 14	vsPSU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 17	vsMINN	L 44-61	-3.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	@USC	W 71-70	+5.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 25	vsWIS	W 85-71	+5.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@NU	L 62-63	+3.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 3	@ILL	L 54-80	+17.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsWASH	W 85-79	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 10	vsMD	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

RUTG

L 85-88

−7.5

OSU

L 62-72

−11.5

NEB

L 55-90

−24.5

MICH

L 71-81

+8.5

MSU

L 52-68

−5.5

WASH

L 57-72

−7.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−11.5

IOWA

L 66-84

−8.5

PUR

L 64-68

+15.5

L 74-92

−7.5

PSU

W 83-72

+4.5

MINN

L 44-61

−20.5

USC

W 71-70

+6.5

WIS

W 85-71

+19.5

L 62-63

+2.5

ILL

L 54-80

−8.5

WASH

W 85-79

+7.5

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

RUTG

L 85-88

+33.5

OSU

L 62-72

−18.5

NEB

L 55-90

−1.5

MICH

L 71-81

−5.5

MSU

L 52-68

−19.5

WASH

L 57-72

−14.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−6.5

IOWA

L 66-84

+16.5

PUR

L 64-68

−12.5

L 74-92

+22.5

PSU

W 83-72

+9.5

MINN

L 44-61

−31.5

USC

W 71-70

−8.5

WIS

W 85-71

+3.5

L 62-63

−16.5

ILL

L 54-80

−13.5

WASH

W 85-79

+18.5

L 60-70

−9.5

over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon has the better starters

Position by position: Indiana St 0, Oregon 4, even 1

Indiana StBetterOregon

G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70

ORESmall

G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88

G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58

ORESmall

G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78

G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28

OREBig

F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77

G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16

OREBig

F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67

Indiana StBetterOregon

INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8

ORESmall

ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0

INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8

OREBig

ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players

OREBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

ORESmall

Bench+1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestINST betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Indiana St

Guards

K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew

Forwards

A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew

Oregon

Guards

F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew

Forwards

A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

INST71.7 #254

ORE70.8 #267

Points per possession

INST1.03 #295

ORE1.06 #235

Pace (possessions)

INST69.7 #131

ORE66.8 #287

Shooting

Effective FG%

INST52.8 #110

ORE49.5 #271

3-point %

INST31.6 #305

ORE32.0 #277

3-point attempt rate

INST45.2 #62

ORE42.8 #121

Free throw rate

INST27.4 #349

ORE35.0 #181

Possessions

Turnover rate

INST19.5 #338

ORE17.6 #244

Offensive rebound rate

INST26.2 #317

ORE32.3 #114

Assists per game

INST17.1 #22

ORE14.3 #126

Defense

Points allowed

INST75.1 #193

ORE73.9 #155

Points allowed per possession

INST1.08 #161

ORE1.11 #249

Opponent effective FG%

INST50.2 #110

ORE50.9 #148

Opponent 3-point %

INST31.2 #37

ORE33.4 #144

Turnovers forced

INST14.9 #299

ORE15.8 #231

Defensive rebound rate

INST68.2 #245

ORE67.7 #271

Steals per game

INST6.0 #242

ORE6.1 #231

Blocks per game

INST3.3 #176

ORE3.9 #79

INST		ORE
Scoring
71.7 #254	Points per game	70.8 #267
1.03 #295	Points per possession	1.06 #235
69.7 #131	Pace (possessions)	66.8 #287
Shooting
52.8 #110	Effective FG%	49.5 #271
31.6 #305	3-point %	32.0 #277
45.2 #62	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #121
27.4 #349	Free throw rate	35.0 #181
Possessions
19.5 #338	Turnover rate	17.6 #244
26.2 #317	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #114
17.1 #22	Assists per game	14.3 #126
Defense
75.1 #193	Points allowed	73.9 #155
1.08 #161	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #249
50.2 #110	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #148
31.2 #37	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #144
14.9 #299	Turnovers forced	15.8 #231
68.2 #245	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #271
6.0 #242	Steals per game	6.1 #231
3.3 #176	Blocks per game	3.9 #79

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Maryland60–70
Wvs Washington85–79
L@ Illinois54–80
L@ Northwestern62–63
Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.

Indiana State Sycamores at Oregon Ducks

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Indiana St

Oregon

Oregon has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Indiana St

Oregon