1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. LOU @ UK
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats

Rupp Arena · at Kentucky
#14LOULouisville AP #11
@
#19UKKentucky AP #23
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LOUThis seasonUK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LOU 80–79 · win probability LOU 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LOU 1, UK 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UKSmall
Home court
UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, LOU 0-0 away
LOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LOU 32.8%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: LOU 72.5%, UK 70.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9
Even
Three-pointers
LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 52.9% and 39.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
LOU has played the 44th-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LOU 12%, UK 26%. Transfers in: LOU 8, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LOU plays 71.0 a game (77th fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
LOU offense vs UK defense
Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LOU 33.1, UK 37.4. Allowed: LOU 33.0, UK 36.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LOU 16.8%, UK 15.4%. Forced: LOU 16.7%, UK 15.5%
Even
UK offense vs LOU defense
Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LOU -0.8—
Total—159.0—
Projected score—LOU 79.9 · UK 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLOU -0.6—
1H total74.3—
1H projected scoreLOU 37.4 · UK 36.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Louisville has the better starters

Position by position: Louisville 1, Kentucky 0, even 4
LouisvilleBetterKentucky
G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92
Even
G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81
G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90
Even
G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92
LOUBig
G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48
F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
Even
F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97
F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85
Even
F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87
LouisvilleBetterKentucky
LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3
Even
UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5
LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2
Even
UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5
Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players
LOUBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players
LOUSmall
Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
UKSmall
Bench+5.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLOU betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Louisville
Guards
J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min
Forwards
F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew
Centers
G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew
Kentucky
Guards
A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew
Forwards
M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew
Centers
F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LOUUK
Scoring
84.2 #18Points per game80.5 #55
1.18 #29Points per possession1.15 #57
71.0 #77Pace (possessions)69.9 #123
Shooting
56.5 #14Effective FG%53.4 #87
36.0 #583-point %34.2 #158
52.9 #43-point attempt rate39.7 #180
33.1 #236Free throw rate37.4 #119
Possessions
16.8 #184Turnover rate15.4 #98
32.8 #93Offensive rebound rate33.2 #84
17.1 #23Assists per game15.9 #50
Defense
72.5 #119Points allowed74.3 #167
1.02 #49Points allowed per possession1.06 #115
48.7 #54Opponent effective FG%48.9 #63
32.3 #76Opponent 3-point %31.8 #55
16.7 #172Turnovers forced15.5 #248
72.5 #50Defensive rebound rate70.0 #158
6.8 #148Steals per game7.0 #123
3.3 #179Blocks per game4.6 #33
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St69–77
  • Wvs South Florida83–79
  • Lvs Miami73–78
  • Wvs SMU62–58
  • W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State63–82
  • Wvs Santa Clara89–84
  • Lvs Florida63–71
  • Wvs Missouri78–72
  • Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.