1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. WSU vs UNLV
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Washington State Cougars vs UNLV Rebels

Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
#139WSUWashington St
vs
#98UNLVUNLV
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WSUThis seasonUNLV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 80–74 · win probability UNLV 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNLV has more of the edges

WSU 1, UNLV 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNLVBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WSU 18.5%, UNLV 17.1%. Forced: WSU 14.5%, UNLV 17.4%
UNLVSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WSU 1%, UNLV 43%. Transfers in: WSU 8, UNLV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WSU 29.5%, UNLV 30.2%. Defensive: WSU 71.8%, UNLV 68.0%
UNLVSmall
UNLV offense vs WSU defense
Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 166th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WSU plays 68.9 a game (183rd fastest), UNLV 71.3 (57th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
WSU hits 36.5% and allows 35.4%; UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 44.8% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WSU 30.2, UNLV 40.6. Allowed: WSU 33.0, UNLV 44.9
Even
WSU offense vs UNLV defense
Offense 130th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WSU has played the 100th-hardest schedule, UNLV the 87th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WSU 54.7 and allows 52.6; UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNLV -5.9—
Total—153.5—
Projected score—WSU 73.8 · UNLV 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNLV -3.4—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreWSU 34.2 · UNLV 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNLV has the better starters

Position by position: Washington St 1, UNLV 2, even 2
Washington StBetterUNLV
G S. Akins TR5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 57
Even
G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64
F F. Roxburgh TR10.9 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
UNLVBig
G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97
F R. Harrison TR14.2 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
WSUBig
G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
F L. Dembele TR5.2 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91
F T. Kropp TR3.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 48
UNLVSmall
F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
Washington StBetterUNLV
WSU offense130th of 366 · -3.5
Even
UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5
WSU defense166th of 366 · -3.7
UNLVSmall
UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-0.2 · 1 player
UNLVSmall
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.6 · 4 players
UNLVBig
Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWSU betterUNLV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Washington St
Guards
S. Akins15 min · TRJ. Phillips11 min · TRJ. Harrell9 min · TRR. Jones7 min · TRD. Blakely1 minC. JonesNew
Forwards
F. Roxburgh31 min · TRR. Harrison31 min · TRL. Dembele20 min · TRT. Kropp12 min · TRM. SankheNewB. KymanNew
UNLV
Guards
D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min
Forwards
T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew
Centers
J. Foumena10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WSUUNLV
Scoring
75.7 #152Points per game78.6 #88
1.10 #136Points per possession1.10 #134
68.9 #183Pace (possessions)71.3 #57
Shooting
54.7 #48Effective FG%53.5 #81
36.5 #403-point %35.2 #102
44.8 #733-point attempt rate36.4 #243
30.2 #305Free throw rate40.6 #51
Possessions
18.5 #295Turnover rate17.1 #209
29.5 #221Offensive rebound rate30.2 #189
13.8 #163Assists per game14.1 #137
Defense
77.3 #245Points allowed79.3 #306
1.12 #266Points allowed per possession1.11 #250
52.6 #248Opponent effective FG%52.3 #231
35.4 #273Opponent 3-point %35.2 #259
14.5 #322Turnovers forced17.4 #127
71.8 #71Defensive rebound rate68.0 #256
5.5 #299Steals per game7.3 #102
2.9 #242Blocks per game4.7 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Washington St

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland68–74
  • L@ Pepperdine79–88
  • L@ LMU66–67
  • Lvs Saint Mary's67–83
  • Wvs Pacific87–70

A week or more of rest.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa66–77
  • W@ UC Irvine75–72
  • Lvs Utah State60–80
  • Wvs Wyoming73–70
  • L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.