1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SJU vs ALA
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

St. John's Red Storm vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Legacy Arena at BJCC · Neutral site
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
vs
#15ALAAlabama AP #20
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SJUThis seasonALA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 85–82 · win probability SJU 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 166.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

SJU 4, ALA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SJU 14.4%, ALA 13.1%. Forced: SJU 19.1%, ALA 12.8%
SJUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SJU 35.2%, ALA 32.4%. Defensive: SJU 70.1%, ALA 67.2%
ALASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5; ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2
SJUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SJU 40.2, ALA 36.0. Allowed: SJU 31.8, ALA 32.0
SJUSmall
SJU offense vs ALA defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings
ALASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SJU 22%, ALA 46%. Transfers in: SJU 6, ALA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: SJU plays 70.8 a game (82nd fastest), ALA 74.7 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
SJU has played the 15th-hardest schedule, ALA the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
ALA offense vs SJU defense
Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Three-pointers
SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%; ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 35.2% and 54.3% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SJU -2.3—
Total—166.9—
Projected score—SJU 84.6 · ALA 82.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -1.5—
1H total77.9—
1H projected scoreSJU 39.7 · ALA 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: St John's 2, Alabama 0, even 3
St John'sBetterAlabama
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
Even
G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
Even
G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
Even
F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
SJUSmall
F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
SJUSmall
F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
St John'sBetterAlabama
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Even
ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
Even
ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
ALASmall
Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
SJUBig
Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
ALASmall
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSJU betterALA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
Alabama
Guards
A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew
Forwards
D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew
Centers
C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SJUALA
Scoring
80.9 #45Points per game91.2 #1
1.14 #68Points per possession1.22 #5
70.8 #82Pace (possessions)74.7 #7
Shooting
51.0 #192Effective FG%55.2 #34
33.5 #1973-point %35.8 #66
35.2 #2723-point attempt rate54.3 #1
40.2 #57Free throw rate36.0 #150
Possessions
14.4 #38Turnover rate13.1 #10
35.2 #43Offensive rebound rate32.4 #111
16.1 #44Assists per game16.3 #39
Defense
69.7 #59Points allowed82.7 #343
0.98 #15Points allowed per possession1.11 #232
47.5 #32Opponent effective FG%49.2 #73
31.3 #39Opponent 3-point %33.8 #170
19.1 #46Turnovers forced12.8 #361
70.1 #154Defensive rebound rate67.2 #295
7.7 #58Steals per game6.4 #186
4.8 #22Blocks per game5.0 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan77–90
  • Wvs Texas Tech90–65
  • Wvs Hofstra90–70
  • Lvs Ole Miss79–80
  • Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.