Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site
#81FSUFlorida St
vs
#28TA&MTexas A&M
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Florida St and Texas A&M
FSUThis seasonTA&M
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TA&M 84–77 · win probability TA&M 72%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges

FSU 0, TA&M 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TA&MBig
Three-pointers
FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%; TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 50.6% and 46.2% of their shots
TA&MSmall
TA&M offense vs FSU defense
Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
TA&MSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2; TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FSU 30.8%, TA&M 32.0%. Defensive: FSU 65.9%, TA&M 67.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FSU 9%, TA&M 25%. Transfers in: FSU 5, TA&M 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
FSU has played the 73rd-hardest schedule, TA&M the 57th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: FSU plays 71.8 a game (41st fastest), TA&M 73.5 (15th). Faster games mean more points
Even
FSU offense vs TA&M defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FSU 34.7, TA&M 37.1. Allowed: FSU 32.7, TA&M 35.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FSU 15.2%, TA&M 14.7%. Forced: FSU 19.0%, TA&M 18.4%

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TA&M -6.7—
Total—160.8—
Projected score—FSU 77.1 · TA&M 83.8

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadTA&M -3.9—
1H total75.1—
1H projected scoreFSU 35.6 · TA&M 39.5—

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Florida St 0, Texas A&M 0, even 5
Florida StBetterTexas A&M
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
Even
G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
Even
G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 78
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
Even
G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 91
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
Even
G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 37
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
Even
F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 76
Florida StBetterTexas A&M
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Even
TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
TA&MSmall
TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
TA&MBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
TA&MSmall
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFSU betterTA&M betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
Texas A&M
Guards
P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min
Forwards
J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FSUTA&M
Scoring
80.4 #58Points per game86.1 #12
1.12 #101Points per possession1.17 #43
71.8 #41Pace (possessions)73.5 #15
Shooting
52.3 #132Effective FG%53.8 #71
33.1 #2263-point %35.9 #63
50.6 #133-point attempt rate46.2 #42
34.7 #191Free throw rate37.1 #128
Possessions
15.2 #80Turnover rate14.7 #48
30.8 #170Offensive rebound rate32.0 #122
14.3 #124Assists per game17.8 #11
Defense
77.9 #264Points allowed78.9 #296
1.08 #178Points allowed per possession1.08 #151
52.2 #226Opponent effective FG%50.7 #141
34.6 #228Opponent 3-point %31.8 #53
19.0 #51Turnovers forced18.4 #81
65.9 #319Defensive rebound rate67.0 #300
7.9 #44Steals per game8.1 #34
3.9 #84Blocks per game3.1 #210

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.

Texas A&M

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston57–88
  • Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
  • Lvs Oklahoma63–83
  • W@ LSU94–91
  • Wvs Kentucky96–85

A week or more of rest.