Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site
LineNo line yet
Total—
| This season | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects TA&M 84–77 · win probability TA&M 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges
FSU 0, TA&M 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Three-pointers
FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%; TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 50.6% and 46.2% of their shots
TA&M offense vs FSU defense
Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
Shooting
Effective FG%: FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2; TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FSU 30.8%, TA&M 32.0%. Defensive: FSU 65.9%, TA&M 67.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FSU 9%, TA&M 25%. Transfers in: FSU 5, TA&M 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
FSU has played the 73rd-hardest schedule, TA&M the 57th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: FSU plays 71.8 a game (41st fastest), TA&M 73.5 (15th). Faster games mean more points
Even
FSU offense vs TA&M defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FSU 34.7, TA&M 37.1. Allowed: FSU 32.7, TA&M 35.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FSU 15.2%, TA&M 14.7%. Forced: FSU 19.0%, TA&M 18.4%
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | TA&M -6.7 | — |
| Total | — | 160.8 | — |
| Projected score | — | FSU 77.1 · TA&M 83.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TA&M -3.9 | — |
| 1H total | 75.1 | — |
| 1H projected score | FSU 35.6 · TA&M 39.5 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | |
| 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Next 3 games
With how the last meeting with each opponent went
No more games listed yet.
No more games listed yet.
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FSU 0–1 TA&MTA&M leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FSU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025-26 | TA&M 95 vs FSU 59 | FSU -1.5 | TA&M W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
33 games played
Straight up
18-15
55% wins
Against the spread
20-13
61% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-16
52% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @ | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vs | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | vs | L 58-61 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | @ | W 92-69 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 17 | vs | W 80-72 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 21 | @ | W 70-65 | +8.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 24 | vs | L 73-83 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 80-71 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 4 | @ | W 75-74 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 91-78 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 158.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 11 | vs | W 95-89 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 184 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 79-80 | +16.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
ALCN
W 108-76
+4.5
7
vs
ALST
W 101-64
+12.5
11
@
FLA
L 76-78
+15.5
18
vs
UTM
W 87-73
−5.5
21
vs
GASO
W 98-72
+7.5
25
vs
CSUB
W 89-59
+3.5
28
vs
TA&M
L 59-95
−37.5
2
vs
UGA
L 73-107
−35.5
6
vs
HOU
L 67-82
−2.5
13
vs
MASS
L 95-103
−20.5
16
@
DAY
L 69-97
−21.5
19
vs
MVSU
W 96-49
+6.5
22
vs
JAX
W 87-63
+0.5
30
@
UNC
L 66-79
−0.5
3
vs
DUKE
L 87-91
+12.5
10
vs
NCSU
L 69-113
−39.5
13
@
SYR
L 86-94
−3.5
17
vs
WAKE
L 68-69
+0.5
20
@
MIA
W 65-63
+12.5
24
@
SMU
L 80-83
+8.5
28
vs
CAL
W 63-61
−1.5
31
vs
STAN
W 88-80
+4.5
7
@
ND
W 82-79
+4.5
10
vs
UVA
L 58-61
+5.5
14
@
VT
W 92-69
+27.5
17
vs
BC
W 80-72
−3.5
21
@
CLEM
W 70-65
+13.5
24
vs
MIA
L 73-83
−7.5
28
@
GT
W 80-71
+3.5
4
@
PITT
W 75-74
−0.5
7
vs
SMU
W 91-78
+11.5
11
vs
CAL
W 95-89
+4.5
12
vs
DUKE
L 79-80
+15.5
covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vs
ALCN
W 108-76
+27.5
7
vs
ALST
W 101-64
−1.5
11
@
FLA
L 76-78
−26.5
18
vs
UTM
W 87-73
−5.5
21
vs
GASO
W 98-72
−5.5
25
vs
CSUB
W 89-59
−11.5
28
vs
TA&M
L 59-95
−20.5
2
vs
UGA
L 73-107
+3.5
6
vs
HOU
L 67-82
+0.5
13
vs
MASS
L 95-103
+32.5
16
@
DAY
L 69-97
+3.5
19
vs
MVSU
W 96-49
−19.5
22
vs
JAX
W 87-63
−9.5
30
@
UNC
L 66-79
−21.5
3
vs
DUKE
L 87-91
+14.5
10
vs
NCSU
L 69-113
+21.5
13
@
SYR
L 86-94
+19.5
17
vs
WAKE
L 68-69
−31.5
20
@
MIA
W 65-63
−35.5
24
@
SMU
L 80-83
−0.5
28
vs
CAL
W 63-61
−33.5
31
vs
STAN
W 88-80
+15.5
7
@
ND
W 82-79
+6.5
10
vs
UVA
L 58-61
−36.5
14
@
VT
W 92-69
+4.5
17
vs
BC
W 80-72
+3.5
21
@
CLEM
W 70-65
−10.5
24
vs
MIA
L 73-83
+3.5
28
@
GT
W 80-71
−7.5
4
@
PITT
W 75-74
+4.5
7
vs
SMU
W 91-78
+10.5
11
vs
CAL
W 95-89
+29.5
12
vs
DUKE
L 79-80
+8.5
over 17under 16avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas A&M
34 games played
Straight up
22-12
65% wins
Against the spread
19-15
56% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-15
56% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 98-68 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 6 | vs | W 104-70 | -29.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 9 | @ | L 63-87 | -2.5 | L −26.5 | 174.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs | L 74-86 | -10.5 | L −22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 86-81 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs | W 109-68 | -23.5 | W +17.5 | 162.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 25 | vs | W 120-84 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 28 | vs | W 95-59 | +1.5 | W +37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | @ | W 81-73 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vs | L 80-93 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 14 | vs | W 112-75 | -26.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Dec 21 | vs | W 118-77 | -28.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 29 | vs | W 111-82 | -29.5 | L −0.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 75-72 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | @ | W 90-88 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs | W 83-76 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 13 | @ | L 82-87 | +11.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | @ | W 74-70 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs | W 88-68 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 92-69 | -10.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 92-77 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 173.5 | U 169 |
| Feb 4 | @ | L 97-100 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 180.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 67-86 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 167.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 85-86 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 69-82 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 18 | vs | W 80-77 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 21 | @ | W 75-71 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 84-99 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | O 183 |
| Feb 28 | vs | L 70-76 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 3 | vs | W 96-85 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 7 | @ | W 94-91 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | O 185 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 63-83 | -2.5 | L −22.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 19 | vs | W 63-50 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 149.5 | U 113 |
| Mar 21 | vs | L 57-88 | +10.5 | L −20.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
NWST
W 98-68
+8.5
6
vs
TXSO
W 104-70
+4.5
9
@
OKST
L 63-87
−26.5
14
vs
UCF
L 74-86
−22.5
18
vs
MONT
W 86-81
−12.5
21
vs
MAN
W 109-68
+17.5
25
vs
MVSU
W 120-84
−6.5
28
vs
FSU
W 95-59
+37.5
2
@
PITT
W 81-73
+4.5
7
vs
SMU
L 80-93
−14.5
14
vs
JAX
W 112-75
+10.5
21
vs
ETAM
W 118-77
+12.5
29
vs
PV
W 111-82
−0.5
3
vs
LSU
W 75-72
−2.5
6
@
AUB
W 90-88
+8.5
10
vs
OU
W 83-76
+2.5
13
@
TENN
L 82-87
+6.5
17
@
TEX
W 74-70
+8.5
21
vs
MSST
W 88-68
+11.5
24
vs
SC
W 92-69
+12.5
31
@
UGA
W 92-77
+19.5
4
@
ALA
L 97-100
+5.5
7
vs
FLA
L 67-86
−13.5
11
vs
MIZ
L 85-86
−8.5
14
@
VAN
L 69-82
−5.5
18
vs
MISS
W 80-77
−6.5
21
@
OU
W 75-71
+2.5
25
@
ARK
L 84-99
−7.5
28
vs
TEX
L 70-76
−8.5
3
vs
UK
W 96-85
+9.5
7
@
LSU
W 94-91
+0.5
12
vs
OU
L 63-83
−22.5
19
vs
SMC
W 63-50
+15.5
21
vs
HOU
L 57-88
−20.5
covered 19didn’t cover 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
NWST
W 98-68
+12.5
6
vs
TXSO
W 104-70
+12.5
9
@
OKST
L 63-87
−24.5
14
vs
UCF
L 74-86
−12.5
18
vs
MONT
W 86-81
+2.5
21
vs
MAN
W 109-68
+14.5
25
vs
MVSU
W 120-84
+49.5
28
vs
FSU
W 95-59
−20.5
2
@
PITT
W 81-73
+1.5
7
vs
SMU
L 80-93
+8.5
14
vs
JAX
W 112-75
+39.5
21
vs
ETAM
W 118-77
+28.5
29
vs
PV
W 111-82
+15.5
3
vs
LSU
W 75-72
−21.5
6
@
AUB
W 90-88
+9.5
10
vs
OU
W 83-76
−6.5
13
@
TENN
L 82-87
+9.5
17
@
TEX
W 74-70
−22.5
21
vs
MSST
W 88-68
−7.5
24
vs
SC
W 92-69
+5.5
31
@
UGA
W 92-77
−4.5
4
@
ALA
L 97-100
+16.5
7
vs
FLA
L 67-86
−14.5
11
vs
MIZ
L 85-86
+10.5
14
@
VAN
L 69-82
−14.5
18
vs
MISS
W 80-77
−0.5
21
@
OU
W 75-71
−19.5
25
@
ARK
L 84-99
+12.5
28
vs
TEX
L 70-76
−13.5
3
vs
UK
W 96-85
+18.5
7
@
LSU
W 94-91
+23.5
12
vs
OU
L 63-83
−16.5
19
vs
SMC
W 63-50
−36.5
21
vs
HOU
L 57-88
+2.5
over 19under 15avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Florida St 0, Texas A&M 0, even 5
Florida StBetterTexas A&M
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast
Score 90
=Even
G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 98
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast
Score 73
=Even
G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 78
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast
Score 82
=Even
G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 91
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 32
=Even
G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 37
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 68
=Even
F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 76
Florida StBetterTexas A&M
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
=Even
TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
→TA&MSmall
TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
→TA&MBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
=Even
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
→TA&MSmall
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFSU betterTA&M betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
Guards
P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min
Forwards
J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 80.4 #58 | Points per game | 86.1 #12 |
| 1.12 #101 | Points per possession | 1.17 #43 |
| 71.8 #41 | Pace (possessions) | 73.5 #15 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.3 #132 | Effective FG% | 53.8 #71 |
| 33.1 #226 | 3-point % | 35.9 #63 |
| 50.6 #13 | 3-point attempt rate | 46.2 #42 |
| 34.7 #191 | Free throw rate | 37.1 #128 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.2 #80 | Turnover rate | 14.7 #48 |
| 30.8 #170 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.0 #122 |
| 14.3 #124 | Assists per game | 17.8 #11 |
| Defense | ||
| 77.9 #264 | Points allowed | 78.9 #296 |
| 1.08 #178 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #151 |
| 52.2 #226 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.7 #141 |
| 34.6 #228 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.8 #53 |
| 19.0 #51 | Turnovers forced | 18.4 #81 |
| 65.9 #319 | Defensive rebound rate | 67.0 #300 |
| 7.9 #44 | Steals per game | 8.1 #34 |
| 3.9 #84 | Blocks per game | 3.1 #210 |
Florida St
18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke79–80
- Wvs California95–89
- Wvs SMU91–78
- W@ Pitt75–74
- W@ Georgia Tech80–71
A week or more of rest.
Texas A&M
22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Houston57–88
- Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
- Lvs Oklahoma63–83
- W@ LSU94–91
- Wvs Kentucky96–85
A week or more of rest.