1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UCR @ CAL
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

UC Riverside Highlanders at California Golden Bears

Haas Pavilion · at California
#281UCRUC Riverside
@
#92CALCalifornia
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCRThis seasonCAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAL 85–66 · win probability CAL 95%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAL has more of the edges

UCR 0, CAL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CALBig
CAL offense vs UCR defense
Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings
CALBig
Three-pointers
UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 38.3% and 43.1% of their shots
CALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8
CALBig
UCR offense vs CAL defense
Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings
CALBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCR 19.0%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: UCR 15.5%, CAL 16.1%
Context
Schedule so far
UCR has played the 182nd-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCR 35.0, CAL 36.2. Allowed: UCR 40.9, CAL 36.3
CALSmall
Home court
CAL at home. This season: CAL 0-0 at home, UCR 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCR 27.8%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: UCR 70.0%, CAL 69.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UCR plays 71.0 a game (74th fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCR 21%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: UCR 5, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CAL -18.6—
Total—150.9—
Projected score—UCR 66.1 · CAL 84.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCAL -10.9—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreUCR 29.8 · CAL 40.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

California has the better starters

Position by position: UC Riverside 1, California 4, even 0
UC RiversideBetterCalifornia
G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
CALBig
G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74
G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
CALBig
G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76
G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
CALSmall
G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58
G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87
UCRBig
G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46
F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0
CALBig
F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83
UC RiversideBetterCalifornia
UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1
CALBig
CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7
UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4
CALBig
CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players
CALBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
CALBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench+0.3 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCR betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Riverside
Guards
D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew
Forwards
D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew
Centers
A. Oyeadier2 min · TR
California
Guards
M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min
Forwards
L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min
Centers
M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCRCAL
Scoring
71.6 #258Points per game77.7 #99
1.01 #317Points per possession1.11 #118
71.0 #74Pace (possessions)69.8 #126
Shooting
48.9 #291Effective FG%52.6 #119
31.6 #3013-point %36.9 #30
38.3 #2033-point attempt rate43.1 #111
35.0 #177Free throw rate36.2 #146
Possessions
19.0 #321Turnover rate15.1 #74
27.8 #275Offensive rebound rate26.0 #322
12.3 #262Assists per game14.1 #142
Defense
79.1 #303Points allowed73.4 #140
1.11 #256Points allowed per possession1.05 #92
52.7 #252Opponent effective FG%49.8 #91
33.5 #159Opponent 3-point %31.0 #34
15.5 #250Turnovers forced16.1 #216
70.0 #159Defensive rebound rate69.5 #180
5.1 #325Steals per game5.9 #244
4.1 #67Blocks per game3.0 #217
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hawai'i74–93
  • Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
  • L@ Santa Barbara59–70
  • Lvs UC Davis73–78
  • Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
  • Wvs UIC91–73
  • Lvs Florida St89–95
  • L@ Wake Forest73–80
  • W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.