Chicago State Cougars at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 3:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Chicago St and Valparaiso
CHST	This season	VAL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAL 80–62 · win probability VAL 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

CHST 1, VAL 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VALBig

CHST offense vs VAL defense

Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings

VALBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, VAL 32.5%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, VAL 69.9%

VALBig

Three-pointers

CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 30.9% and 36.8% of their shots

VALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, VAL 39.1. Allowed: CHST 38.0, VAL 35.1

VALBig

VAL offense vs CHST defense

Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings

VALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5

Context

Schedule so far

CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, VAL the 143rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

VALSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, VAL 51%. Transfers in: CHST 6, VAL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CHSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, VAL 15.7%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, VAL 16.9%

VALSmall

Home court

VAL at home. This season: VAL 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), VAL 67.4 (258th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAL -18.5	—
Total	—	141.7	—
Projected score	—	CHST 61.6 · VAL 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -10.9	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	CHST 27.7 · VAL 38.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST WWLLW	15-16	48%	9-12	—
VAL WWLLL	19-13	59%	11-5	—

Venue/role: CHST away; VAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST UUUOO	15-16	48%	6-25
VAL UUOUO	17-15	53%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
VAL	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago St

No more games listed yet.

Valparaiso

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHST 2–0 VALCHST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · CHST has won the last 2 meetings · CHST 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	CHST 63 @ VAL 62	VAL -3.5	CHST W
Nov 16, 2022-23	VAL 74 @ CHST 87	CHST +9.5	CHST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

31 games played

Straight up

6-25

19% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2519%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O O U O U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167
Nov 28	@YSU	L 64-87	+14.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 6	@ILST	L 53-95	+20.5	L −21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 14	@LUC	W 84-75	+15.5	W +24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 16	@BGSU	L 55-76	+21.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@IU	L 58-78	+38.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 2	vsWAG	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 4	vsLIU	L 55-74	+7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	@FDU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 10	@STO	L 82-85	+4.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsLEM	L 57-72	+6.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsNHVN	L 56-62	-1.5	L −7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	@SFPA	L 60-81	+3.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 25	@MERC	L 59-61	+9.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsMERC	W 78-74	+2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	@CCSU	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 7	@NHVN	W 63-57	+5.5	W +11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 9	vsSFPA	W 80-75	-3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsSTO	W 68-55	+2.5	W +15.5	131.5	U 123
Feb 14	@LEM	L 63-81	+6.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsFDU	L 59-60	+1.5	W +0.5	131.5	U 119
Feb 21	vsCCSU	W 70-51	+3.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 26	@LIU	L 56-73	+11.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	@WAG	L 61-80	+4.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 141
Mar 4	@LIU	L 75-79	+10.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

YSU

L 64-87

−8.5

ILST

L 53-95

−21.5

LUC

W 84-75

+24.5

BGSU

L 55-76

+0.5

L 58-78

+18.5

WAG

L 72-79

−5.5

LIU

L 55-74

−11.5

FDU

L 63-70

−2.5

STO

L 82-85

+1.5

LEM

L 57-72

−8.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−7.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−17.5

MERC

L 59-61

+7.5

MERC

W 78-74

+6.5

CCSU

L 67-78

−2.5

NHVN

W 63-57

+11.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+1.5

STO

W 68-55

+15.5

LEM

L 63-81

−11.5

FDU

L 59-60

+0.5

CCSU

W 70-51

+22.5

LIU

L 56-73

−5.5

WAG

L 61-80

−14.5

LIU

L 75-79

+6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

YSU

L 64-87

+4.5

ILST

L 53-95

+3.5

LUC

W 84-75

+18.5

BGSU

L 55-76

−17.5

L 58-78

−16.5

WAG

L 72-79

+4.5

LIU

L 55-74

−22.5

FDU

L 63-70

−10.5

STO

L 82-85

+31.5

LEM

L 57-72

−17.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−11.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−2.5

MERC

L 59-61

−11.5

MERC

W 78-74

+22.5

CCSU

L 67-78

+6.5

NHVN

W 63-57

−7.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+10.5

STO

W 68-55

−8.5

LEM

L 63-81

−0.5

FDU

L 59-60

−12.5

CCSU

W 70-51

−17.5

LIU

L 56-73

−12.5

WAG

L 61-80

+6.5

LIU

L 75-79

+16.5

over 15under 16avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W W W L W W W L L L W W W L W W W W W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U O U U O U U O O O O U U U O O O U U O O U U O O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@CLE	W 90-75	+2.5	W +17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 26	vsUSI	L 56-64	-9.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 29	vsWMU	W 84-55	-4.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 2	@MARQ	L 72-75	+17.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsUNCW	L 70-73	+4.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 16	@NU	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMUR	L 79-85	+5.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 164
Dec 29	@UNI	L 48-58	+8.5	L −1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	@SIU	L 70-75	+7.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUIC	W 66-59	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 125
Jan 7	vsILST	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MUR	L 79-92	+12.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 171
Jan 13	@BEL	L 74-78	+11.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 152
Jan 17	vsUNI	W 54-44	+1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	vsSIU	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	vsBEL	L 77-78	+5.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 31	@INST	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@BRAD	L 65-72	+7.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 6	vsEVAN	W 70-63	-8.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	@DRKE	W 81-76	+3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ILST	L 64-86	+8.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsINST	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsBRAD	W 79-72	+2.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 21	@UIC	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	138.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsDRKE	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 28	@EVAN	L 79-80	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsINST	W 63-62	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsBRAD	L 84-90	+5.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

CLE

W 90-75

+17.5

USI

L 56-64

−17.5

WMU

W 84-55

+24.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+14.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+1.5

L 70-86

−1.5

MUR

L 79-85

−0.5

UNI

L 48-58

−1.5

SIU

L 70-75

+2.5

UIC

W 66-59

+4.5

ILST

W 77-71

+12.5

MUR

L 79-92

−0.5

BEL

L 74-78

+7.5

UNI

W 54-44

+11.5

SIU

W 69-63

+4.5

BEL

L 77-78

+4.5

INST

W 76-72

+6.5

BRAD

L 65-72

+0.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−1.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+8.5

ILST

L 64-86

−13.5

INST

W 76-75

−3.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+9.5

UIC

W 71-67

+11.5

DRKE

W 74-71

+0.5

EVAN

L 79-80

−6.5

INST

W 63-62

−1.5

BRAD

L 84-90

−0.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

CLE

W 90-75

+6.5

USI

L 56-64

−30.5

WMU

W 84-55

−7.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+0.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+6.5

L 70-86

+10.5

MUR

L 79-85

+8.5

UNI

L 48-58

−25.5

SIU

L 70-75

−0.5

UIC

W 66-59

−19.5

ILST

W 77-71

+9.5

MUR

L 79-92

+18.5

BEL

L 74-78

+5.5

UNI

W 54-44

−32.5

SIU

W 69-63

−10.5

BEL

L 77-78

+9.5

INST

W 76-72

+2.5

BRAD

L 65-72

−7.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−3.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+12.5

ILST

L 64-86

+11.5

INST

W 76-75

+5.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+8.5

UIC

W 71-67

−0.5

DRKE

W 74-71

−1.5

EVAN

L 79-80

+21.5

INST

W 63-62

−15.5

BRAD

L 84-90

+34.5

over 17under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Valparaiso has the better starters

Position by position: Chicago St 0, Valparaiso 5, even 0

Chicago StBetterValparaiso

G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3

VALBig

G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62

G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3

VALSmall

G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34

G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2

VALBig

G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65

F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14

VALBig

F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70

F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1

VALSmall

F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

Chicago StBetterValparaiso

CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2

VALBig

VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9

CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0

VALBig

VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1

Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players

VALBig

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players

VALBig

Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players

Bench-2.7 · 2 players

VALSmall

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCHST betterVAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Chicago St

Guards

M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew

Forwards

B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew

Centers

B. KalonjiNew

Valparaiso

Guards

R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min

Forwards

J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew

Centers

K. Yu8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHST65.2 #348

VAL71.2 #263

Points per possession

CHST0.99 #337

VAL1.06 #233

Pace (possessions)

CHST66.0 #314

VAL67.4 #258

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHST45.3 #358

VAL47.6 #322

3-point %

CHST32.1 #275

VAL33.9 #180

3-point attempt rate

CHST30.9 #341

VAL36.8 #234

Free throw rate

CHST30.0 #311

VAL39.1 #79

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHST15.7 #114

VAL15.7 #116

Offensive rebound rate

CHST28.3 #255

VAL32.5 #110

Assists per game

CHST11.7 #305

VAL11.7 #307

Defense

Points allowed

CHST76.5 #231

VAL71.9 #103

Points allowed per possession

CHST1.16 #332

VAL1.06 #116

Opponent effective FG%

CHST56.7 #354

VAL50.5 #130

Opponent 3-point %

CHST35.6 #290

VAL32.1 #70

Turnovers forced

CHST20.1 #21

VAL16.9 #161

Defensive rebound rate

CHST65.0 #339

VAL69.9 #167

Steals per game

CHST8.2 #33

VAL5.9 #245

Blocks per game

CHST1.3 #365

VAL3.6 #124

CHST		VAL
Scoring
65.2 #348	Points per game	71.2 #263
0.99 #337	Points per possession	1.06 #233
66.0 #314	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #258
Shooting
45.3 #358	Effective FG%	47.6 #322
32.1 #275	3-point %	33.9 #180
30.9 #341	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #234
30.0 #311	Free throw rate	39.1 #79
Possessions
15.7 #114	Turnover rate	15.7 #116
28.3 #255	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #110
11.7 #305	Assists per game	11.7 #307
Defense
76.5 #231	Points allowed	71.9 #103
1.16 #332	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #116
56.7 #354	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #130
35.6 #290	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #70
20.1 #21	Turnovers forced	16.9 #161
65.0 #339	Defensive rebound rate	69.9 #167
8.2 #33	Steals per game	5.9 #245
1.3 #365	Blocks per game	3.6 #124

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island75–79
L@ Wagner61–80
L@ Long Island56–73
Wvs C Connecticut70–51
Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bradley84–90
Wvs Indiana St63–62
L@ Evansville79–80
Wvs Drake74–71
W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

Chicago State Cougars at Valparaiso Beacons

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

Valparaiso

Valparaiso has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Chicago St

Valparaiso