Lee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ARST | This season | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects STMN 79–76 · win probability STMN 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges
ARST 2, STMN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STMNBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: ARST 19.8%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: ARST 14.9%, STMN 17.0%
ARSTBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARST 38.2%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: ARST 73.0%, STMN 73.4%
STMNBigThree-pointers
ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 44.9% and 46.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
ARST has played the 221st-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARSTSmallARST offense vs STMN defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings
STMNSmallShooting
Effective FG%: ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: ARST plays 73.4 a game (16th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points
STMNSmallSTMN offense vs ARST defense
Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
STMNSmallWho is back
Minutes back from last season: ARST 6%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: ARST 3, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
STMNSmallHome court
STMN at home. This season: STMN 0-0 at home, ARST 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARST 39.1, STMN 33.8. Allowed: ARST 37.0, STMN 30.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | STMN -2.8 | — |
| Total | — | 155.3 | — |
| Projected score | — | ARST 76.3 · STMN 79 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | STMN -1.5 | — |
| 1H total | 72.6 | — |
| 1H projected score | ARST 35.5 · STMN 37 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| STMN | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Next 3 games
With how the last meeting with each opponent went
Arkansas StNo more games listed yet.
St Thomas| Date | Game | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 15 | vs UCSD | No recent meeting |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas St
30 games played
Straight up
18-12
60% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-15
50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @ TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @ USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs JMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs TROY | W 86-74 | -4.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | vsTXST | W 83-82 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 15 | @ USA | L 87-91 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | @TROY | L 74-99 | +3.5 | L −21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 22 | @ GASO | W 85-68 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 172.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 24 | @ GAST | L 81-82 | -4.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | vs ODU | L 71-75 | -9.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | vs MRSH | L 61-70 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 165.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 4 | @ CCU | W 70-66 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vs BGSU | W 91-54 | -2.5 | W +34.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | vs ULM | W 103-70 | -20.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 14 | vsUSA | L 88-92 | -8.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 19 | @ UL | W 79-62 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 21 | @ULM | W 102-94 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | O 196 |
| Feb 24 | vsUSM | W 89-84 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 27 | vsUL | W 81-58 | -13.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 5 | vsGASO | L 77-80 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
+7.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
−10.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
−8.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
−21.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
+15.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
−5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−12.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−0.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
+34.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+12.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
−12.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
+8.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
−7.5
24
vsUSM
USMW 89-84
−4.5
27
vsUL
ULW 81-58
+9.5
5
vsGASO
GASOL 77-80
−10.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
−0.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
+8.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
+23.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
+7.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
−19.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
+5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−34.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−15.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
−9.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+10.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
+30.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
−3.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
+30.5
24
vsUSM
USMW 89-84
+14.5
27
vsUL
ULW 81-58
−7.5
5
vsGASO
GASOL 77-80
−8.5
over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
St Thomas
31 games played
Straight up
21-10
68% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-15
52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @SMC | L 58-84 | +13.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARMY | W 83-76 | -18.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 10 | @ WSU | L 71-81 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 13 | vs GB | W 80-61 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | @ SEMO | W 84-72 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNCO | W 73-72 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs CSUF | L 80-88 | -11.5 | L −19.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | @ PORT | W 76-66 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 3 | @ MTST | L 74-82 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 7 | vs WEB | W 88-65 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNCA | W 80-59 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 20 | vs UCR | W 92-78 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 4 | vs DEN | W 92-88 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 7 | vs SDAK | W 99-86 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | @ ORU | W 82-71 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 15 | @ UND | W 91-80 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @NDSU | L 65-68 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 22 | vs SDST | W 74-69 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 24 | @SDAK | W 90-78 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 161.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 29 | vsUND | L 80-81 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 1 | vs KC | W 99-64 | -17.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 4 | @SDST | W 77-62 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 7 | vsORU | W 92-75 | -15.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 12 | @ OMA | L 94-98 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | O 192 |
| Feb 14 | @KC | W 104-64 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 21 | @DEN | L 80-82 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 26 | vsNDSU | W 84-62 | -3.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 28 | vsOMA | W 68-53 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 121 |
| Mar 5 | vsSDST | W 80-67 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Mar 7 | vsUND | L 66-67 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 17 | @ SEA | L 52-67 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 119 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@SMC
SMCL 58-84
−12.5
8
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-76
−11.5
10
@WSU
WSUL 71-81
−7.5
13
vsGB
GBW 80-61
+5.5
15
@SEMO
SEMOW 84-72
+9.5
21
vsUNCO
UNCOW 73-72
−3.5
22
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
−19.5
23
@PORT
PORTW 76-66
+4.5
3
@MTST
MTSTL 74-82
−5.5
7
vsWEB
WEBW 88-65
+15.5
13
@UNCA
UNCAW 80-59
+17.5
20
vsUCR
UCRW 92-78
−0.5
4
vsDEN
DENW 92-88
−7.5
7
vsSDAK
SDAKW 99-86
−1.5
10
@ORU
ORUW 82-71
+2.5
15
@UND
UNDW 91-80
+0.5
17
@NDSU
NDSUL 65-68
−0.5
22
vsSDST
SDSTW 74-69
−1.5
24
@SDAK
SDAKW 90-78
+1.5
29
vsUND
UNDL 80-81
−12.5
1
vsKC
KCW 99-64
+17.5
4
@SDST
SDSTW 77-62
+16.5
7
vsORU
ORUW 92-75
+1.5
12
@OMA
OMAL 94-98
−8.5
14
@KC
KCW 104-64
+27.5
21
@DEN
DENL 80-82
−5.5
26
vsNDSU
NDSUW 84-62
+18.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 68-53
+3.5
5
vsSDST
SDSTW 80-67
+8.5
7
vsUND
UNDL 66-67
−12.5
17
@SEA
SEAL 52-67
−12.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@SMC
SMCL 58-84
+0.5
8
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-76
+7.5
10
@WSU
WSUL 71-81
−5.5
13
vsGB
GBW 80-61
−9.5
15
@SEMO
SEMOW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsUNCO
UNCOW 73-72
−12.5
22
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
+5.5
23
@PORT
PORTW 76-66
−13.5
3
@MTST
MTSTL 74-82
+8.5
7
vsWEB
WEBW 88-65
−1.5
13
@UNCA
UNCAW 80-59
−9.5
20
vsUCR
UCRW 92-78
+17.5
4
vsDEN
DENW 92-88
+16.5
7
vsSDAK
SDAKW 99-86
+22.5
10
@ORU
ORUW 82-71
+0.5
15
@UND
UNDW 91-80
+19.5
17
@NDSU
NDSUL 65-68
−18.5
22
vsSDST
SDSTW 74-69
−12.5
24
@SDAK
SDAKW 90-78
+6.5
29
vsUND
UNDL 80-81
+8.5
1
vsKC
KCW 99-64
+11.5
4
@SDST
SDSTW 77-62
−18.5
7
vsORU
ORUW 92-75
+15.5
12
@OMA
OMAL 94-98
+35.5
14
@KC
KCW 104-64
+13.5
21
@DEN
DENL 80-82
−6.5
26
vsNDSU
NDSUW 84-62
−9.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 68-53
−37.5
5
vsSDST
SDSTW 80-67
−3.5
7
vsUND
UNDL 66-67
−20.5
17
@SEA
SEAL 52-67
−26.5
over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas St has the better starters
Position by position: Arkansas St 3, St Thomas 0, even 2
Arkansas StBetterSt Thomas
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 83
←ARSTSmall
G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 57
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast
Score 45
←ARSTSmall
G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 24
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 33
=Even
F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 25
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast
Score 36
←ARSTSmall
F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 9
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet
Not ranked
=No call
F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast
Not ranked
Arkansas StBetterSt Thomas
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
←ARSTSmall
STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
→STMNSmall
STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
=Even
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
←ARSTBig
Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARST betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas StGuards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
St ThomasGuards
A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min
Forwards
C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ARST81.8 #33STMN80.9 #48Points per possession
ARST1.11 #117STMN1.16 #45Pace (possessions)
ARST73.4 #16STMN69.7 #137Shooting
Effective FG%
ARST51.7 #164STMN58.9 #53-point %
ARST32.9 #240STMN36.0 #573-point attempt rate
ARST44.9 #70STMN46.3 #41Free throw rate
ARST39.1 #78STMN33.8 #220Possessions
Turnover rate
ARST19.8 #344STMN14.4 #37Offensive rebound rate
ARST38.2 #6STMN22.6 #353Assists per game
ARST15.3 #77STMN16.4 #37Defense
Points allowed
ARST78.0 #268STMN73.1 #135Points allowed per possession
ARST1.07 #121STMN1.05 #82Opponent effective FG%
ARST50.3 #117STMN50.7 #139Opponent 3-point %
ARST32.9 #115STMN31.7 #52Turnovers forced
ARST14.9 #298STMN17.0 #152Defensive rebound rate
ARST73.0 #36STMN73.4 #25Steals per game
ARST7.2 #110STMN7.5 #87Blocks per game
ARST2.8 #268STMN2.6 #296| ARST | STMN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 81.8 #33 | Points per game | 80.9 #48 |
| 1.11 #117 | Points per possession | 1.16 #45 |
| 73.4 #16 | Pace (possessions) | 69.7 #137 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.7 #164 | Effective FG% | 58.9 #5 |
| 32.9 #240 | 3-point % | 36.0 #57 |
| 44.9 #70 | 3-point attempt rate | 46.3 #41 |
| 39.1 #78 | Free throw rate | 33.8 #220 |
| Possessions | ||
| 19.8 #344 | Turnover rate | 14.4 #37 |
| 38.2 #6 | Offensive rebound rate | 22.6 #353 |
| 15.3 #77 | Assists per game | 16.4 #37 |
| Defense | ||
| 78.0 #268 | Points allowed | 73.1 #135 |
| 1.07 #121 | Points allowed per possession | 1.05 #82 |
| 50.3 #117 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.7 #139 |
| 32.9 #115 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.7 #52 |
| 14.9 #298 | Turnovers forced | 17.0 #152 |
| 73.0 #36 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.4 #25 |
| 7.2 #110 | Steals per game | 7.5 #87 |
| 2.8 #268 | Blocks per game | 2.6 #296 |
Arkansas St
18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs GA Southern77–80
- Wvs Louisiana81–58
- Wvs Southern Miss89–84
- W@ UL Monroe102–94
- W@ Louisiana79–62
A week or more of rest.
St Thomas
21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Seattle U52–67
- Lvs North Dakota66–67
- Wvs S Dakota St80–67
- Wvs Omaha68–53
- Wvs N Dakota St84–62
A week or more of rest.