First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -9.5✓ USM covered by 4.5
ARST -9.5✓ USM covered by 4.5Closing total158.5Over by 14.5
 USM | This season | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| 13-14 | Record | 16-11 |
| 12-15 | ATS | 14-13 |
| 15-12 | O/U | 14-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 75–83 ARST · ✓ ARST (76%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 44 | 40 | 84 |
| ARST | 53 | 36 | 89 |
1st half: USM 44, ARST 53 (ARST by 9). The model had ARST by 4.6 and a total of 74.2 (actual 97).
Team stats
| USM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-67 51% | Field goals | 24-60 40% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 11-21 52% | Free throws | 36-46 78% |
| 36 13 off | Rebounds | 42 19 off |
| 21 | Assists | 13 |
| 10 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 32 | Fouls | 17 |
| 56 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 39 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 38 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 8-17 | 1-3 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 26 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-17 | 0-2 |
| Djahi Binet F | 23 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 17 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Curt Lewis G | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tegra Izay C | 17 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brewer Carruth, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hampton G | 35 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 7-13 | 1-1 |
| Christian Harmon G | 31 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 26 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4-12 | 0-1 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 26 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Joey Chammaa G | 23 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Rho Omed, Fredy-Salam Sylla, Royal Blue Smith, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett, Chudi Dioramma
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -9.5
no move
CloseARST -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▲ 1
Close158.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +350 · ARST -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -9.5 · unchangedmodel ARST -8
model ARST -8
Opened 157.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARST -9.5 | ARST -7.9 | USM +1.6 | W USM covered |
| Total | 158.5 | 158.8 | Over 0.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | USM 75.4 · ARST 83.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ARST -4.6 | ARST -9.0 |
| 1H total | 74.2 | 97 |
| 1H projected score | USM 34.8 · ARST 39.4 | USM 44 · ARST 53 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ARST | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
USM 3–4 ARSTARST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 4 meetings · USM 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025-26 | ARST 93 @ USM 86 | USM +1.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | USM 67 @ ARST 101 | ARST -15.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ARST 81 @ USM 68 | USM +9.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | USM 71 @ ARST 78 | ARST -4.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | ARST 66 @ USM 69 | USM +2.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
27 games played
Straight up
13-14
48% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-12
56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vsARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vs APP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vs JMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs KENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vs USA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsTROY | W 69-65 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | vs ODU | W 86-81 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
+9.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
−10.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+19.5
over 15under 12avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas St
27 games played
Straight up
16-11
59% wins
Against the spread
14-13
52% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-13
52% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vsJMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsTROY | W 86-74 | -4.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | vsTXST | W 83-82 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 15 | @USA | L 87-91 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | @TROY | L 74-99 | +3.5 | L −21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 22 | @ GASO | W 85-68 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 172.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 24 | @GAST | L 81-82 | -4.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsODU | L 71-75 | -9.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | vsMRSH | L 61-70 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 165.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 4 | @CCU | W 70-66 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vs BGSU | W 91-54 | -2.5 | W +34.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | vsULM | W 103-70 | -20.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 14 | vsUSA | L 88-92 | -8.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 19 | @UL | W 79-62 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 21 | @ULM | W 102-94 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | O 196 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
+7.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
−10.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
−8.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
−21.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
+15.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
−5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−12.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−0.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
+34.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+12.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
−12.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
+8.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
−7.5
covered 14didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
−0.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
+8.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
+23.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
+7.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
−19.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
+5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−34.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−15.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
−9.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+10.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
+30.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
−3.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
+30.5
over 14under 13avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
13-14 overall · 8-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Old Dominion86–81
- Wvs Troy69–65
- Lvs South Alabama78–84
- Wvs Kent State66–65
- L@ Marshall77–81
3 days since their last game.
Arkansas St
16-11 overall · 9-7 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe102–94
- W@ Louisiana79–62
- Lvs South Alabama88–92
- Wvs UL Monroe103–70
- Wvs Bowling Green91–54
3 days since their last game.