1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UAPB @ EIU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Eastern Illinois Panthers

Groniger Arena · at E Illinois
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#361EIUE Illinois
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonEIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EIU 75–71 · win probability EIU 65%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: EIU has more of the edges

UAPB 0, EIU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), EIU 67.0 (280th). Faster games mean more points
EIUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, EIU 18.6%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, EIU 19.3%
EIUSmall
Home court
EIU at home. This season: EIU 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, EIU 22%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, EIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, EIU the 314th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, EIU 33.5. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, EIU 35.3
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8
Even
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 37.1% and 29.9% of their shots
Even
UAPB offense vs EIU defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
EIU offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, EIU 28.2%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, EIU 64.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—EIU -4.4—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—UAPB 70.9 · EIU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadEIU -2.5—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreUAPB 33 · EIU 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, E Illinois 0, even 5
AR-Pine BluffBetterE Illinois
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
No call
G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
AR-Pine BluffBetterE Illinois
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
Even
EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
Even
EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
EIUSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
UAPBSmall
Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterEIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
E Illinois
Guards
J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew
Forwards
A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew
Centers
T. VogelNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBEIU
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game64.6 #351
1.04 #277Points per possession0.96 #350
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)67.0 #280
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%45.7 #353
33.6 #1903-point %31.7 #292
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate29.9 #352
38.4 #91Free throw rate33.5 #224
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate18.6 #301
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate28.2 #256
14.1 #136Assists per game11.1 #336
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed72.2 #111
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.08 #152
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%50.8 #146
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %31.7 #50
16.4 #192Turnovers forced19.3 #37
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate64.8 #343
6.8 #142Steals per game7.5 #78
2.9 #244Blocks per game2.9 #251
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Martin63–66
  • Wvs SIUE77–71
  • L@ SIUE50–77
  • W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
  • Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.