1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UIC @ MILW
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

UIC Flames at Milwaukee Panthers

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · at Milwaukee
#110UICUIC
@
#234MILWMilwaukee
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UICThis seasonMILW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIC 79–71 · win probability UIC 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

UIC 5, MILW 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UICBig
UIC offense vs MILW defense
Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings
UICSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5; MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5
UICSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIC 36.2, MILW 32.1. Allowed: UIC 33.9, MILW 35.9
UICSmall
Three-pointers
UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%; MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.1% of their shots
UICSmall
MILW offense vs UIC defense
Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings
MILWSmall
Home court
MILW at home. This season: MILW 0-0 at home, UIC 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIC 60%, MILW 40%. Transfers in: UIC 4, MILW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIC 36.3%, MILW 33.0%. Defensive: UIC 68.0%, MILW 70.8%
Context
Schedule so far
UIC has played the 161st-hardest schedule, MILW the 191st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UIC plays 68.1 a game (227th fastest), MILW 69.1 (174th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIC 17.6%, MILW 15.3%. Forced: UIC 19.7%, MILW 15.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UIC -8.3—
Total—149.9—
Projected score—UIC 79.1 · MILW 70.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUIC -5.1—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreUIC 37.6 · MILW 32.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: UIC 1, Milwaukee 0, even 4
UICBetterMilwaukee
G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79
UICBig
G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14
G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55
Even
G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69
Even
F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78
G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
Even
F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77
No call
F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
UICBetterMilwaukee
UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6
UICBig
MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6
UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0
UICSmall
MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5
Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players
UICBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUIC betterMILW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UIC
Guards
B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min
Forwards
J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew
Milwaukee
Guards
I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew
Forwards
D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UICMILW
Scoring
73.9 #196Points per game74.7 #173
1.09 #171Points per possession1.09 #172
68.1 #227Pace (possessions)69.1 #174
Shooting
49.8 #245Effective FG%49.9 #242
31.6 #3003-point %32.3 #266
32.8 #3193-point attempt rate38.1 #212
36.2 #145Free throw rate32.1 #256
Possessions
17.6 #247Turnover rate15.3 #85
36.3 #22Offensive rebound rate33.0 #88
14.1 #143Assists per game12.9 #220
Defense
71.2 #81Points allowed79.9 #317
1.05 #83Points allowed per possession1.15 #328
50.5 #125Opponent effective FG%55.5 #340
33.4 #147Opponent 3-point %36.5 #329
19.7 #30Turnovers forced15.8 #232
68.0 #255Defensive rebound rate70.8 #121
7.6 #70Steals per game6.5 #176
3.6 #126Blocks per game3.0 #230
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ California73–91
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
  • Wvs Drake72–51
  • Wvs Murray St92–79
  • L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
  • Wvs Youngstown St78–65
  • L@ Oakland70–81
  • L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
  • Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.