1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. INST @ UIC
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Indiana State Sycamores at UIC Flames

Credit Union 1 Arena · at UIC · Conference game
#207INSTIndiana St
@
#110UICUIC
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
INSTThis seasonUIC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIC 81–69 · win probability UIC 86%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

INST 2, UIC 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UICBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: INST 19.5%, UIC 17.6%. Forced: INST 14.9%, UIC 19.7%
UICBig
UIC offense vs INST defense
Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings
UICBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: INST 26.2%, UIC 36.3%. Defensive: INST 68.2%, UIC 68.0%
UICBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: INST 0%, UIC 60%. Transfers in: INST 6, UIC 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
INSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: INST 52.8 and allows 50.2; UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5
UICSmall
INST offense vs UIC defense
Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings
INSTSmall
Three-pointers
INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%; UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 45.2% and 32.8% of their shots
UICSmall
Home court
UIC at home. This season: UIC 0-0 at home, INST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: INST plays 69.7 a game (131st fastest), UIC 68.1 (227th). Faster games mean more points
UICSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: INST 27.4, UIC 36.2. Allowed: INST 28.7, UIC 33.9
Context
Schedule so far
INST has played the 149th-hardest schedule, UIC the 161st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UIC -12.4—
Total—150.2—
Projected score—INST 68.9 · UIC 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUIC -7.2—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreINST 31.5 · UIC 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: Indiana St 0, UIC 2, even 3
Indiana StBetterUIC
G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70
Even
G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79
G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58
Even
G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55
G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28
UICBig
G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69
G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16
UICBig
G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77
Indiana StBetterUIC
INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8
UICSmall
UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0
INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8
UICBig
UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6
Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players
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Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.1 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestINST betterUIC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Indiana St
Guards
K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew
Forwards
A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew
UIC
Guards
B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min
Forwards
J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
INSTUIC
Scoring
71.7 #254Points per game73.9 #196
1.03 #295Points per possession1.09 #171
69.7 #131Pace (possessions)68.1 #227
Shooting
52.8 #110Effective FG%49.8 #245
31.6 #3053-point %31.6 #300
45.2 #623-point attempt rate32.8 #319
27.4 #349Free throw rate36.2 #145
Possessions
19.5 #338Turnover rate17.6 #247
26.2 #317Offensive rebound rate36.3 #22
17.1 #22Assists per game14.1 #143
Defense
75.1 #193Points allowed71.2 #81
1.08 #161Points allowed per possession1.05 #83
50.2 #110Opponent effective FG%50.5 #125
31.2 #37Opponent 3-point %33.4 #147
14.9 #299Turnovers forced19.7 #30
68.2 #245Defensive rebound rate68.0 #255
6.0 #242Steals per game7.6 #70
3.3 #176Blocks per game3.6 #126
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Valparaiso62–63
  • Wvs UIC79–63
  • L@ S Illinois55–66
  • L@ Belmont70–87
  • Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ California73–91
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
  • Wvs Drake72–51
  • Wvs Murray St92–79
  • L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.