1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. DSU @ CONN
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Delaware State Hornets at UConn Huskies

PeoplesBank Arena · at UConn
#351DSUDelaware St
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DSUThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 91–46 · win probability CONN 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 137.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

DSU 1, CONN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CONNBig
DSU offense vs CONN defense
Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DSU has played the 354th-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CONNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
CONNBig
CONN offense vs DSU defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DSU 27.7%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: DSU 68.0%, CONN 71.2%
CONNBig
Three-pointers
DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 28.9% and 40.9% of their shots
DSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DSU 34.1, CONN 29.9. Allowed: DSU 40.5, CONN 40.7
CONNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DSU 19.8%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: DSU 19.6%, CONN 17.8%
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, DSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DSU 41%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: DSU 1, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: DSU plays 66.7 a game (290th fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CONN -45.5—
Total—137.1—
Projected score—DSU 45.8 · CONN 91.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -26.9—
1H total64.2—
1H projected scoreDSU 18.6 · CONN 45.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UConn has the better starters

Position by position: Delaware St 0, UConn 4, even 1
Delaware StBetterUConn
G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33
CONNBig
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
CONNBig
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14
CONNBig
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58
CONNSmall
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
Even
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
Delaware StBetterUConn
DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2
CONNBig
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9
CONNBig
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players
CONNBig
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.0 · 1 player
CONNBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDSU betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Delaware St
Guards
R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew
Forwards
A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DSUCONN
Scoring
59.7 #365Points per game76.6 #129
0.89 #365Points per possession1.16 #52
66.7 #290Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
42.9 #364Effective FG%54.3 #59
28.4 #3613-point %34.4 #150
28.9 #3573-point attempt rate40.9 #149
34.1 #204Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
19.8 #346Turnover rate16.4 #163
27.7 #277Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
9.7 #361Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
71.4 #89Points allowed65.2 #6
1.07 #143Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
52.9 #265Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
33.0 #123Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
19.6 #32Turnovers forced17.8 #107
68.0 #257Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
7.6 #73Steals per game6.8 #143
1.8 #353Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Delaware St

5-22 in 2025-26 overall · 3-13 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC Central53–59
  • Wvs Morgan St75–70
  • W@ MD Eastern57–56
  • Lvs SC State59–61
  • Lvs NC Central60–74

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.