Illinois Fighting Illini vs UConn Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Apr 4, 6:09 PM ETLucas Oil Stadium · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament

#4ILLIllinois AP #362final

Final

#6CONNUConn AP #271▲ winner

Closing lineILL -1.5✓ CONN covered by 10.5

Closing total139.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Illinois and UConn
ILL	This season	CONN
28-8	Record	33-5
22-14	ATS	15-23
15-21	O/U	19-19

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ILL 75–73 CONN · ✗ ILL (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ILL	29	33	62
CONN	37	34	71

1st half: ILL 29, CONN 37 (CONN by 8). The model had ILL by 1.4 and a total of 69.0 (actual 66).

Team stats

ILL		CONN
19-56 34%	Field goals	22-62 35%
6-26 23%	3-pointers	12-33 36%
18-23 78%	Free throws	15-17 88%
44 12 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
3	Assists	14
2	Steals	6
6	Blocks	1
8	Turnovers	4
17	Fouls	21
22	Points in paint	20
0	Fast-break points	5

Players

ILL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keaton Wagler G	37	20	8	2	7-16	2-10
Tomislav Ivisic C	33	16	7	0	4-11	2-7
David Mirkovic F	28	6	5	0	2-7	1-3
Kylan Boswell G	24	6	6	0	1-6	0-1
Jake Davis F	17	2	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Andrej Stojakovic G	29	9	8	1	4-10	0-0
Ben Humrichous F	26	3	5	0	1-4	1-3
Zvonimir Ivisic F	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers, Brandon Lee, Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic

CONN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Karaban F	35	9	4	4	1-8	1-7
Tarris Reed Jr. C	35	17	11	0	6-12	0-0
Silas Demary Jr. G	31	7	9	7	2-8	1-6
Braylon Mullins G	30	15	3	0	5-14	4-7
Solo Ball G	28	13	0	2	5-11	3-7
Bench
Jayden Ross F	20	7	3	0	2-4	2-2
Malachi Smith G	9	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Jaylin Stewart F	7	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
Eric Reibe C	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Ross, Alec Millender, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Dwayne Koroma, Rrezon Elezaj

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ILL -1.5	ILL -2.1	ILL +0.6	L CONN covered
Total	139.5	147.5	Over 8.0	L Under
Projected score	—	ILL 74.8 · CONN 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -1.4	CONN -8.0
1H total	69.0	66
1H projected score	ILL 35.2 · CONN 33.8	ILL 29 · CONN 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ILL LWWWW	22-14	61%	6-3	18-11
CONN LLWWW	15-23	39%	6-3	1-0

Venue/role: ILL neutral site, as favorite; CONN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OOUUU	15-21	42%	28-8
CONN UOUUO	19-19	50%	33-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CONN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ILL 0–2 CONNCONN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 2 meetings · ILL 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2025-26	ILL 61 vs CONN 74	CONN -4.5	CONN W
Mar 30, 2023-24	ILL 52 vs CONN 77	CONN -8.5	CONN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois

36 games played

Straight up

28-8

78% wins

Against the spread

22-14

61% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-21

42% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-878%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

22-1461%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2142%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

covered 22didn’t cover 14avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

over 15under 21avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UConn

38 games played

Straight up

33-5

87% wins

Against the spread

15-23

39% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-19

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

33-587%

W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-2339%

L W L L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1950%

U O U O U U U U O O U U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNHVN	W 79-55	-42.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsUML	W 110-47	-36.5	W +26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsCOLU	W 89-62	-32.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsBYU	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsARIZ	L 67-71	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 23	vsBRY	W 72-49	-36.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsILL	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 2	@KU	W 61-56	-3.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 5	vsETAM	W 83-59	-36.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 9	vsFLA	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 12	vsTEX	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsBTLR	W 79-60	-15.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 21	@DEP	W 72-54	-12.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@XAV	W 90-67	-11.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 4	vsMARQ	W 73-57	-17.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	@PROV	W 103-98	-9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	vsDEP	W 72-60	-19.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 13	@HALL	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Jan 17	@GTWN	W 64-62	-11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsVILL	W 75-67	-11.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 27	vsPROV	W 87-81	-15.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 31	@CREI	W 85-58	-6.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 3	vsXAV	W 92-60	-16.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 6	@SJU	L 72-81	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 11	@BTLR	W 80-70	-11.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 14	vsGTWN	W 79-75	-16.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsCREI	L 84-91	-15.5	L −22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@VILL	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsSJU	W 72-40	-5.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsHALL	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 138
Mar 7	@MARQ	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsXAV	W 93-68	-17.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 161
Mar 13	vsGTWN	W 67-51	-14.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 118
Mar 14	@SJU	L 52-72	-2.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsFUR	W 82-71	-20.5	L −9.5	133.5	O 153
Mar 22	vsUCLA	W 73-57	-5.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 130
Mar 27	vsMSU	W 67-63	-2.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 130
Mar 29	vsDUKE	W 73-72	+4.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−18.5

UML

W 110-47

+26.5

COLU

W 89-62

−5.5

BYU

W 86-84

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−8.5

BRY

W 72-49

−13.5

ILL

W 74-61

+8.5

W 61-56

+1.5

ETAM

W 83-59

−12.5

FLA

W 77-73

−0.5

TEX

W 71-63

−3.5

BTLR

W 79-60

+3.5

DEP

W 72-54

+5.5

XAV

W 90-67

+11.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−1.5

PROV

W 103-98

−4.5

DEP

W 72-60

−7.5

HALL

W 69-64

−1.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−9.5

VILL

W 75-67

−3.5

PROV

W 87-81

−9.5

CREI

W 85-58

+20.5

XAV

W 92-60

+15.5

SJU

L 72-81

−10.5

BTLR

W 80-70

−1.5

GTWN

W 79-75

−12.5

CREI

L 84-91

−22.5

VILL

W 73-63

+6.5

SJU

W 72-40

+26.5

HALL

W 71-67

−8.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−15.5

XAV

W 93-68

+7.5

GTWN

W 67-51

+1.5

SJU

L 52-72

−22.5

FUR

W 82-71

−9.5

UCLA

W 73-57

+10.5

MSU

W 67-63

+1.5

DUKE

W 73-72

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 23avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−11.5

UML

W 110-47

+5.5

COLU

W 89-62

−4.5

BYU

W 86-84

+13.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−18.5

BRY

W 72-49

−26.5

ILL

W 74-61

−15.5

W 61-56

−24.5

ETAM

W 83-59

+0.5

FLA

W 77-73

+4.5

TEX

W 71-63

−11.5

BTLR

W 79-60

−5.5

DEP

W 72-54

−7.5

XAV

W 90-67

+12.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−14.5

PROV

W 103-98

+48.5

DEP

W 72-60

−5.5

HALL

W 69-64

+0.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−15.5

VILL

W 75-67

+4.5

PROV

W 87-81

+15.5

CREI

W 85-58

+0.5

XAV

W 92-60

+4.5

SJU

L 72-81

+9.5

BTLR

W 80-70

+6.5

GTWN

W 79-75

+15.5

CREI

L 84-91

+31.5

VILL

W 73-63

−5.5

SJU

W 72-40

−33.5

HALL

W 71-67

+7.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−13.5

XAV

W 93-68

+10.5

GTWN

W 67-51

−20.5

SJU

L 52-72

−15.5

FUR

W 82-71

+19.5

UCLA

W 73-57

−5.5

MSU

W 67-63

−6.5

DUKE

W 73-72

+9.5

over 19under 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs UConn Huskies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois

UConn

Illinois

UConn