Lucas Oil Stadium · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ARIZ -1.5✓ MICH covered by 19.5
ARIZ -1.5✓ MICH covered by 19.5Closing total157.5Over by 6.5
 MICH | This season | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 35-3 | Record | 36-2 |
| 18-20 | ATS | 23-15 |
| 16-22 | O/U | 19-19 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 81–80 ARIZ · ✓ MICH (54%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 48 | 43 | 91 |
| ARIZ | 32 | 41 | 73 |
1st half: MICH 48, ARIZ 32 (MICH by 16). The model had MICH by 0.8 and a total of 75.1 (actual 80).
Team stats
| MICH | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-69 48% | Field goals | 26-71 37% |
| 12-27 44% | 3-pointers | 6-17 35% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 40 11 off | Rebounds | 44 18 off |
| 22 | Assists | 5 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Cadeau G | 33 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 5-17 | 3-7 |
| Aday Mara C | 30 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 11-16 | 0-1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 25 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 14 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Trey McKenney G | 27 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 6-9 | 4-6 |
| Will Tschetter F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Howard Eisley Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Malick Kordel C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Charlie May G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, L.J. Cason, Ricky Liburd
| ARIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries G | 38 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 4-16 | 2-10 |
| Koa Peat F | 31 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 6-18 | 1-1 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov F | 29 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-2 |
| Motiejus Krivas C | 28 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Bradley G | 25 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tobe Awaka F | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Anthony Dell'Orso G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Dwayne Aristode F | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Sven Djopmo G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Cook G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Francois G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Addison Arnold G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Evan Nelson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce James, Sidi Gueye, Mabil Mawut
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARIZ -1.5
no move
CloseARIZ -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▲ 1
Close157.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -108 · ARIZ -112
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -1.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -1
model MICH -1
Opened 156.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 1 upmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARIZ -1.5 | MICH -1.1 | MICH +2.6 | W MICH covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 160.7 | Over 3.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MICH 80.9 · ARIZ 79.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -0.8 | MICH -16.0 |
| 1H total | 75.1 | 80 |
| 1H projected score | MICH 37.9 · ARIZ 37.1 | MICH 48 · ARIZ 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| ARIZ | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MICH 0–1 ARIZARIZ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MICH 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2021-22 | MICH 62 vs ARIZ 80 | ARIZ +3.5 | ARIZ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
38 games played
Straight up
35-3
92% wins
Against the spread
18-20
47% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-22
42% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Against the spread
18-2047%
3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vs DUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @ IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | vsMSU | W 90-80 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsOSU | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 14 | vsWIS | W 68-65 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 15 | vsPUR | L 72-80 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 19 | vs HOW | W 101-80 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 21 | vs SLU | W 95-72 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
| Mar 27 | vs ALA | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Mar 29 | vs TENN | W 95-62 | -8.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
−0.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−8.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−9.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
−12.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
−9.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+10.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
+3.5
29
vsTENN
TENNW 95-62
+24.5
covered 18didn’t cover 20avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
+17.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−17.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−28.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
+2.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
+29.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+5.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
−5.5
29
vsTENN
TENNW 95-62
+10.5
over 16under 22avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arizona
38 games played
Straight up
36-2
95% wins
Against the spread
23-15
61% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-19
50% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Against the spread
23-1561%
5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FLA | W 93-87 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTU | W 93-67 | -33.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAU | W 84-49 | -35.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 14 | vsUCLA | W 69-65 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ CONN | W 71-67 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs DEN | W 103-73 | -32.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 29 | vs NORF | W 98-61 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vsAUB | W 97-68 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vsALA | W 96-75 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 16 | vs ACU | W 96-62 | -34.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 20 | vsSDSU | W 68-45 | -13.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 113 |
| Dec 22 | vs BCU | W 107-71 | -39.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Dec 29 | vs SDST | W 99-71 | -31.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 3 | @ UTAH | W 97-78 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 162.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 7 | vs KSU | W 101-76 | -17.5 | W +7.5 | 171.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @TCU | W 86-73 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 14 | vs ASU | W 89-82 | -21.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @ UCF | W 84-77 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 21 | vs CIN | W 77-51 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | vs WVU | W 88-53 | -17.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 26 | @ BYU | W 86-83 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 31 | @ASU | W 87-74 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 161 |
| Feb 7 | vs OKST | W 84-47 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 168.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 9 | @ KU | L 78-82 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 14 | vs TTU | L 75-78 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 18 | vsBYU | W 75-68 | -11.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 21 | @ HOU | W 73-66 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 24 | @ BAY | W 87-80 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 28 | vsKU | W 84-61 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 2 | vs ISU | W 73-57 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | @ COLO | W 89-79 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 12 | vsUCF | W 81-59 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 13 | vsISU | W 82-80 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 14 | vsHOU | W 79-74 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 138.5 | O 153 |
| Mar 20 | vs LIU | W 92-58 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 22 | vs USU | W 78-66 | -11.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 26 | vs ARK | W 109-88 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | O 197 |
| Mar 28 | vsPUR | W 79-64 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+9.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−7.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−0.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
+2.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
+8.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
−2.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+1.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+17.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
+18.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
−0.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
+9.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
−3.5
29
vsSDST
SDSTW 99-71
−3.5
3
@UTAH
UTAHW 97-78
+1.5
7
vsKSU
KSUW 101-76
+7.5
10
@TCU
TCUW 86-73
+5.5
14
vsASU
ASUW 89-82
−14.5
17
@UCF
UCFW 84-77
−2.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 77-51
+12.5
24
vsWVU
WVUW 88-53
+17.5
26
@BYU
BYUW 86-83
+1.5
31
@ASU
ASUW 87-74
−1.5
7
vsOKST
OKSTW 84-47
+16.5
9
@KU
KUL 78-82
−9.5
14
vsTTU
TTUL 75-78
−11.5
18
vsBYU
BYUW 75-68
−4.5
21
@HOU
HOUW 73-66
+13.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 87-80
−0.5
28
vsKU
KUW 84-61
+13.5
2
vsISU
ISUW 73-57
+8.5
7
@COLO
COLOW 89-79
−3.5
12
vsUCF
UCFW 81-59
+6.5
13
vsISU
ISUW 82-80
−1.5
14
vsHOU
HOUW 79-74
+3.5
20
vsLIU
LIUW 92-58
+3.5
22
vsUSU
USUW 78-66
+0.5
26
vsARK
ARKW 109-88
+12.5
28
vsPUR
PURW 79-64
+9.5
covered 23didn’t cover 15avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+15.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−2.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−30.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
−19.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
−18.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
+21.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+12.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+2.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
−7.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
+12.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
−40.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
+23.5
29
vsSDST
SDSTW 99-71
+10.5
3
@UTAH
UTAHW 97-78
+12.5
7
vsKSU
KSUW 101-76
+5.5
10
@TCU
TCUW 86-73
+1.5
14
vsASU
ASUW 89-82
+3.5
17
@UCF
UCFW 84-77
−4.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 77-51
−24.5
24
vsWVU
WVUW 88-53
−2.5
26
@BYU
BYUW 86-83
+2.5
31
@ASU
ASUW 87-74
−2.5
7
vsOKST
OKSTW 84-47
−37.5
9
@KU
KUL 78-82
+7.5
14
vsTTU
TTUL 75-78
−3.5
18
vsBYU
BYUW 75-68
−22.5
21
@HOU
HOUW 73-66
−3.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 87-80
+11.5
28
vsKU
KUW 84-61
−6.5
2
vsISU
ISUW 73-57
−19.5
7
@COLO
COLOW 89-79
+11.5
12
vsUCF
UCFW 81-59
−19.5
13
vsISU
ISUW 82-80
+17.5
14
vsHOU
HOUW 79-74
+14.5
20
vsLIU
LIUW 92-58
+2.5
22
vsUSU
USUW 78-66
−9.5
26
vsARK
ARKW 109-88
+30.5
28
vsPUR
PURW 79-64
−9.5
over 19under 19avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
35-3 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tennessee95–62
- Wvs Alabama90–77
- Wvs Saint Louis95–72
- Wvs Howard101–80
- Lvs Purdue72–80
6 days since their last game.
Arizona
36-2 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Purdue79–64
- Wvs Arkansas109–88
- Wvs Utah State78–66
- Wvs Long Island92–58
- Wvs Houston79–74
A week or more of rest.