Lucas Oil Stadium · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MICH -6.5✓ CONN covered by 0.5
MICH -6.5✓ CONN covered by 0.5Closing total146.5Under by 14.5
 CONN | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 34-5 | Record | 36-3 |
| 16-23 | ATS | 19-20 |
| 19-20 | O/U | 17-22 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 71–78 MICH · ✓ MICH (72%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 29 | 34 | 63 |
| MICH | 33 | 36 | 69 |
1st half: CONN 29, MICH 33 (MICH by 4). The model had MICH by 3.8 and a total of 69.8 (actual 62).
Team stats
| CONN | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-68 31% | Field goals | 21-55 38% |
| 9-33 27% | 3-pointers | 2-15 13% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 25-28 89% |
| 46 22 off | Rebounds | 39 12 off |
| 9 | Assists | 7 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 6 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 40 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 5-14 | 3-10 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 36 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4-17 | 3-10 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 34 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 4-12 | 0-1 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Solo Ball G | 16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Smith G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Ross F | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Rrezon Elezaj, Alec Millender, Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 36 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-13 | 0-5 |
| Aday Mara C | 30 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 30 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 28 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 29 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-4 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 25 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Will Tschetter F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malick Kordel, Ricky Liburd, Oscar Goodman, Howard Eisley Jr., L.J. Cason, Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -7.5
1 → CONN
CloseMICH -6.5
1 pt toward CONN
Total
Open144.5
▲ 2
Close146.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CONN +230 · MICH -285
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -7.5 · closed MICH -6.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel MICH -6.5 matches the line
model MICH -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 144.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 2 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -6.5 | MICH -6.5 | — | CONN covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 149.4 | Over 2.9 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | CONN 71.4 · MICH 78 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -3.8 | MICH -4.0 |
| 1H total | 69.8 | 62 |
| 1H projected score | CONN 33 · MICH 36.8 | CONN 29 · MICH 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
39 games played
Straight up
34-5
87% wins
Against the spread
16-23
41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-20
49% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Against the spread
16-2341%
4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 21 | @VILL | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsSJU | W 72-40 | -5.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 28 | vsHALL | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Mar 7 | @MARQ | L 62-68 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 12 | vsXAV | W 93-68 | -17.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Mar 13 | vsGTWN | W 67-51 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 118 |
| Mar 14 | @SJU | L 52-72 | -2.5 | L −22.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 20 | vs FUR | W 82-71 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 133.5 | O 153 |
| Mar 22 | vs UCLA | W 73-57 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 27 | vs MSU | W 67-63 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 29 | vs DUKE | W 73-72 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 135.5 | O 145 |
| Apr 4 | vsILL | W 71-62 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
+6.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
+26.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
−8.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−15.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+7.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
+1.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−22.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
−9.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
+10.5
27
vsMSU
MSUW 67-63
+1.5
29
vsDUKE
DUKEW 73-72
+5.5
4
vsILL
ILLW 71-62
+10.5
covered 16didn’t cover 23avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
−5.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
−33.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
+7.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−13.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+10.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
−20.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−15.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
+19.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
−5.5
27
vsMSU
MSUW 67-63
−6.5
29
vsDUKE
DUKEW 73-72
+9.5
4
vsILL
ILLW 71-62
−6.5
over 19under 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
39 games played
Straight up
36-3
92% wins
Against the spread
19-20
49% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-22
44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Against the spread
19-2049%
4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vsVILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vsDUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @ IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | vsMSU | W 90-80 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsOSU | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 14 | vsWIS | W 68-65 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 15 | vsPUR | L 72-80 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 19 | vs HOW | W 101-80 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 21 | vs SLU | W 95-72 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
| Mar 27 | vs ALA | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Mar 29 | vs TENN | W 95-62 | -8.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Apr 4 | vsARIZ | W 91-73 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 157.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
−0.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−8.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−9.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
−12.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
−9.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+10.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
+3.5
29
vsTENN
TENNW 95-62
+24.5
4
vsARIZ
ARIZW 91-73
+19.5
covered 19didn’t cover 20avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
+17.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−17.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−28.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
+2.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
+29.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+5.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
−5.5
29
vsTENN
TENNW 95-62
+10.5
4
vsARIZ
ARIZW 91-73
+6.5
over 17under 22avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
34-5 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Illinois71–62
- Wvs Duke73–72
- Wvs Michigan St67–63
- Wvs UCLA73–57
- Wvs Furman82–71
2 days since their last game.
Michigan
36-3 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arizona91–73
- Wvs Tennessee95–62
- Wvs Alabama90–77
- Wvs Saint Louis95–72
- Wvs Howard101–80
2 days since their last game.