NCAAB

Monday, April 6, 2026

Day in numbers1 finalFavorites 0-1 ATS0 upsetsO/U 0-1Model Favorite 1-0Open
Games11 final · 0 to play
Lines moved11+ pt since the open · 1 with a line
Totals moved11+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS0-10% covered
Upsets0outright
Over / Under0-10% over
Model Favorite1-0100% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
CONN vs MICHMICH -7.5 → MICH -6.51 → CONN144.5 → 146.5▲ 2
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
UConn
29-5 · #6 AP #2
63
Michigan
31-3 · #8 AP #1
69
Spread
MICH -6.5
✓ CONN W ATS
Total
146.5 ▲2
▼ Under 132
Projected
71–78
✓ MICH won
Model: Over 2.9 ✗
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
UConn
29-5 · #6
63
Michigan
31-3 · #8
69
 MICH -6.5 146.5 MICH -6.5 — 149.4 Over 2.9 72% MICH L ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record