1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. OKST vs OU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Oklahoma Sooners

Paycom Center · Neutral site
#45OKSTOklahoma St
vs
#31OUOklahoma
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OKSTThis seasonOU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 84–81 · win probability OU 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 165.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

OKST 1, OU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OUBig
Three-pointers
OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%; OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 35.5% and 43.6% of their shots
OUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1; OU 54.9 and allows 51.0
OKSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OKST 39.4, OU 35.5. Allowed: OKST 31.4, OU 34.9
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: OKST plays 74.8 a game (6th fastest), OU 69.4 (154th). Faster games mean more points
OUSmall
OU offense vs OKST defense
Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OKST 15.7%, OU 14.3%. Forced: OKST 15.7%, OU 15.5%
Context
Schedule so far
OKST has played the 60th-hardest schedule, OU the 32nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
OKST offense vs OU defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OKST 30.8%, OU 32.8%. Defensive: OKST 69.7%, OU 67.1%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OKST 41%, OU 43%. Transfers in: OKST 6, OU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OU -2.4—
Total—165.1—
Projected score—OKST 81.3 · OU 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOU -1.3—
1H total77.1—
1H projected scoreOKST 37.9 · OU 39.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Oklahoma St 0, Oklahoma 1, even 4
Oklahoma StBetterOklahoma
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
OUSmall
G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
Even
G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
Even
G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
Even
F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
Even
F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84
Oklahoma StBetterOklahoma
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Even
OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
OUSmall
OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
OUSmall
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOKST betterOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
Oklahoma
Guards
B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew
Forwards
D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew
Centers
Y. Yaak15 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OKSTOU
Scoring
83.9 #21Points per game82.9 #29
1.12 #110Points per possession1.19 #23
74.8 #6Pace (possessions)69.4 #154
Shooting
52.0 #144Effective FG%54.9 #40
33.9 #1763-point %36.5 #41
35.5 #2603-point attempt rate43.6 #97
39.4 #70Free throw rate35.5 #161
Possessions
15.7 #117Turnover rate14.3 #33
30.8 #169Offensive rebound rate32.8 #92
14.6 #113Assists per game14.5 #116
Defense
83.2 #349Points allowed77.4 #248
1.12 #265Points allowed per possession1.12 #271
53.1 #272Opponent effective FG%51.0 #162
36.0 #304Opponent 3-point %34.1 #189
15.7 #240Turnovers forced15.5 #247
69.7 #178Defensive rebound rate67.1 #296
7.1 #120Steals per game6.3 #193
2.7 #285Blocks per game3.9 #89
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Virginia82–89
  • Wvs Baylor82–69
  • Wvs Colorado90–86
  • Lvs Arkansas79–82
  • Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.