1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. OSU @ ND
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Ohio State Buckeyes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
#33OSUOhio State
@
#71NDNotre Dame
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OSUThis seasonND
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OSU 77–75 · win probability OSU 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

OSU 4, ND 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OSU 15.3%, ND 16.9%. Forced: OSU 15.6%, ND 14.0%
OSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8
NDSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OSU 30.4%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: OSU 70.0%, ND 73.3%
OSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OSU 37.2, ND 34.1. Allowed: OSU 34.7, ND 36.2
NDSmall
Home court
ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, OSU 0-0 away
OSUSmall
Three-pointers
OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 40.1% and 43.5% of their shots
Even
ND offense vs OSU defense
Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OSU has played the 33rd-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
OSU offense vs ND defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: OSU plays 67.2 a game (275th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OSU 37%, ND 38%. Transfers in: OSU 4, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OSU -2.6—
Total—151.6—
Projected score—OSU 77.1 · ND 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOSU -1.7—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreOSU 36.3 · ND 34.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ohio State has the better starters

Position by position: Ohio State 3, Notre Dame 1, even 1
Ohio StateBetterNotre Dame
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
OSUSmall
G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
OSUSmall
G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
Even
G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
OSUSmall
G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
NDSmall
C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99
Ohio StateBetterNotre Dame
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Even
ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
Even
ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
OSUBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
NDBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
OSUSmall
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestOSU betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
Notre Dame
Guards
B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min
Forwards
B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew
Centers
L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OSUND
Scoring
79.3 #76Points per game74.5 #180
1.18 #31Points per possession1.10 #143
67.2 #275Pace (possessions)67.7 #239
Shooting
56.2 #19Effective FG%52.3 #133
35.7 #723-point %35.6 #82
40.1 #1703-point attempt rate43.5 #101
37.2 #122Free throw rate34.1 #206
Possessions
15.3 #91Turnover rate16.9 #199
30.4 #185Offensive rebound rate31.2 #155
14.5 #117Assists per game12.3 #267
Defense
72.6 #120Points allowed75.3 #197
1.08 #164Points allowed per possession1.11 #255
50.2 #114Opponent effective FG%51.8 #200
31.9 #57Opponent 3-point %33.2 #138
15.6 #243Turnovers forced14.0 #337
70.0 #160Defensive rebound rate73.3 #27
4.8 #340Steals per game4.5 #355
2.4 #311Blocks per game2.2 #328
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Boston College69–77
  • Lvs Stanford78–86
  • Wvs NC State96–90
  • Lvs Duke56–100
  • L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.