1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. VCU vs FAU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

VCU Rams vs Florida Atlantic Owls

Kia Center · Neutral site
#61VCUVCU
vs
#109FAUFAU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VCUThis seasonFAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 82–74 · win probability VCU 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

VCU 5, FAU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: VCU 42.0, FAU 33.3. Allowed: VCU 32.8, FAU 36.2
VCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VCU 15.1%, FAU 17.6%. Forced: VCU 17.0%, FAU 15.5%
VCUSmall
VCU offense vs FAU defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
VCUSmall
Three-pointers
VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 43.8% and 38.2% of their shots
VCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VCU 65%, FAU 17%. Transfers in: VCU 4, FAU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VCU 31.6%, FAU 31.6%. Defensive: VCU 70.0%, FAU 71.7%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: VCU plays 69.5 a game (147th fastest), FAU 71.1 (71st). Faster games mean more points
Even
FAU offense vs VCU defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0; FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5
Context
Schedule so far
VCU has played the 88th-hardest schedule, FAU the 101st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VCU -8.4—
Total—156.1—
Projected score—VCU 82.3 · FAU 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVCU -5.1—
1H total73.0—
1H projected scoreVCU 39 · FAU 33.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: VCU 2, FAU 1, even 2
VCUBetterFAU
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
FAUSmall
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
Even
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
Even
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
VCUBig
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
VCUBig
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
VCUBetterFAU
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
VCUSmall
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
Even
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
FAUSmall
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
VCUBig
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
VCUBig
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestVCU betterFAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VCUFAU
Scoring
80.8 #50Points per game77.2 #111
1.16 #47Points per possession1.09 #170
69.5 #147Pace (possessions)71.1 #71
Shooting
53.6 #78Effective FG%52.2 #135
36.3 #463-point %33.3 #210
43.8 #913-point attempt rate38.2 #208
42.0 #30Free throw rate33.3 #231
Possessions
15.1 #70Turnover rate17.6 #246
31.6 #139Offensive rebound rate31.6 #140
13.9 #158Assists per game13.0 #210
Defense
71.8 #100Points allowed75.3 #198
1.04 #66Points allowed per possession1.06 #108
49.0 #69Opponent effective FG%49.5 #81
33.0 #125Opponent 3-point %33.8 #169
17.0 #151Turnovers forced15.5 #252
70.0 #162Defensive rebound rate71.7 #78
7.3 #99Steals per game5.7 #272
4.3 #50Blocks per game5.3 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.