1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. AMCC @ BOIS
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Boise State Broncos

ExtraMile Arena · at Boise St
#238AMCCTexas A&M-CC
@
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
AMCCThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 80–63 · win probability BOIS 93%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

AMCC 2, BOIS 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BOISBig
AMCC offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 303rd of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
AMCC has played the 245th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
BOISBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: AMCC 41.1, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: AMCC 46.3, BOIS 32.1
AMCCSmall
Three-pointers
AMCC hits 35.0% and allows 31.6%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 31.4% and 43.1% of their shots
BOISSmall
BOIS offense vs AMCC defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 176th, on the model’s ratings
BOISSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AMCC 31.7%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: AMCC 71.2%, BOIS 76.4%
AMCCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AMCC 19.4%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: AMCC 19.0%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISSmall
Home court
BOIS at home. This season: BOIS 0-0 at home, AMCC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: AMCC plays 66.9 a game (284th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AMCC 19%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: AMCC 4, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: AMCC 49.5 and allows 50.1; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -16.6—
Total—143.0—
Projected score—AMCC 63.2 · BOIS 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -9.8—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreAMCC 28.6 · BOIS 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas A&M-CC 0, Boise St 3, even 2
Texas A&M-CCBetterBoise St
G J. Mizell TR5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
BOISBig
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G S. Robinson TR14.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 76
Even
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
G I. Lewis TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 10
BOISBig
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
G D. Michelini-Jackson4.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 34
BOISSmall
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F B. Basil TR8.7 pts · 6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 53
Even
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
Texas A&M-CCBetterBoise St
AMCC offense303rd of 366 · -9.4
BOISBig
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
AMCC defense176th of 366 · -4.0
BOISSmall
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
BOISBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
BOISSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestAMCC betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas A&M-CC
Guards
J. Mizell28 min · TRS. Robinson28 min · TRI. Lewis22 min · TRD. Michelini-Jackson17 minB. Wheatfall11 minC. Horton6 min
Forwards
B. Basil23 min · TRD. MukunaNewK. WallaceNewC. WorshamNew
Centers
J. Ambrose5 minL. FoonNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AMCCBOIS
Scoring
68.5 #305Points per game77.4 #108
1.03 #296Points per possession1.13 #82
66.9 #284Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
49.5 #270Effective FG%52.2 #138
35.0 #1223-point %34.3 #151
31.4 #3343-point attempt rate43.1 #114
41.1 #46Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
19.4 #336Turnover rate16.9 #195
31.7 #138Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
12.1 #280Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
69.4 #52Points allowed73.2 #137
1.04 #67Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
50.1 #104Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
31.6 #48Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
19.0 #48Turnovers forced14.6 #317
71.2 #95Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
7.0 #125Steals per game4.6 #350
2.6 #290Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas A&M-CC

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-10 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin58–60
  • Wvs LSU N Orleans74–61
  • Wvs East Texas A&M84–71
  • Wvs N'Western St71–59
  • W@ SE Louisiana73–68

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.