Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 13, 11:00 PM ETThomas & Mack Center · at UNLV · Conference game

#86BOISBoise St85final

Final

#98UNLVUNLV89▲ winner

Closing lineBOIS -1.5✓ UNLV covered by 5.5

Closing total150.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Boise St and UNLV
BOIS	This season	UNLV
8-6	Record	6-8
8-6	ATS	6-8
4-10	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BOIS 78–74 UNLV · ✗ BOIS (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
BOIS	39	37	9	85
UNLV	40	36	13	89

1st half: BOIS 39, UNLV 40 (UNLV by 1). The model had BOIS by 2.6 and a total of 71.2 (actual 79).

Team stats

BOIS		UNLV
30-61 49%	Field goals	31-66 47%
3-14 21%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
22-29 76%	Free throws	20-28 71%
33 8 off	Rebounds	40 14 off
16	Assists	16
9	Steals	9
3	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	13
26	Fouls	26
48	Points in paint	46
13	Fast-break points	17

Players

BOIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Meadow F	38	21	6	1	8-12	0-2
Drew Fielder F	38	23	4	1	8-17	1-4
Dominic Parolin F	33	8	7	1	4-7	0-1
Dylan Andrews G	30	14	2	4	4-8	0-1
R.J. Keene II G	23	0	4	5	0-0	0-0
Bench
Aginaldo Neto G	26	0	2	3	0-4	0-1
Spencer Ahrens F	19	5	1	1	2-4	1-2
Pearson Carmichael F	18	14	4	0	4-9	1-3

Did not play: Bhan Buom, Rayzhon Bergersen, Julian Bowie, Javan Buchanan, Brennan Ramirez, Ethan Lathan, Noah Bendinger

UNLV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn G	45	33	5	6	11-23	2-8
Howie Fleming Jr. G	35	17	4	4	6-13	3-6
Kimani Hamilton F	35	16	5	2	5-9	1-3
Tyrin Jones F	33	6	4	2	2-7	0-0
Emmanuel Stephen C	26	6	6	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Issac Williamson G	22	9	4	0	4-6	1-3
Jacob Bannarbie F	18	2	8	2	0-3	0-1
Al Green G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Walter Brown F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ladji Dembele, Mason Abittan, Myles Che, Naas Cunningham, Jalen Cunningham, Xavier Brumfield

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BOIS -1.5	BOIS -4.2	BOIS +2.7	L UNLV covered
Total	150.5	152.1	Over 1.6	W Over
Projected score	—	BOIS 78.2 · UNLV 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BOIS -2.6	UNLV -1.0
1H total	71.2	79
1H projected score	BOIS 36.9 · UNLV 34.3	BOIS 39 · UNLV 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LWWLL	8-6	57%	2-1	4-4
UNLV LWWLL	6-8	43%	4-3	2-4

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OUOUO	4-10	29%	8-6
UNLV UUUOU	7-7	50%	6-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
UNLV	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

BOIS 7–1 UNLVBOIS leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BOIS has won the last 2 meetings · BOIS 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2024-25	BOIS 71 @ UNLV 62	UNLV +3.5	BOIS W
Jan 7, 2024-25	UNLV 59 @ BOIS 81	BOIS -8.5	BOIS W
Jan 16, 2023-24	UNLV 68 @ BOIS 64	BOIS -4.5	UNLV W
Mar 9, 2022-23	UNLV 76 vs BOIS 87	BOIS -5.5	BOIS W
Feb 19, 2022-23	UNLV 69 @ BOIS 73	BOIS -7.5	UNLV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boise St

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

8-6

57% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W W W L L W W W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-657%

W W L L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

O U U U U U U U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsUVU	W 101-77	-12.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 11	vsRGV	W 85-65	-16.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsMTST	W 62-58	-16.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 120
Nov 18	vsWICH	W 62-59	-9.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsUSC	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsNCSU	L 70-81	+6.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	@BTLR	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 10	vsDUQ	W 86-64	-14.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 150
Dec 14	vsSMC	W 68-67	+2.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 20	@NEV	L 66-81	-3.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	vsUNM	W 62-53	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	@SDSU	L 107-110	+4.5	W +1.5	138.5	O 217
Jan 7	vsGCU	L 58-75	-8.5	L −25.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsUSU	L 68-93	+1.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+11.5

RGV

W 85-65

+3.5

MTST

W 62-58

−12.5

WICH

W 62-59

−6.5

USC

L 67-70

+0.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−4.5

BTLR

W 77-68

+11.5

DUQ

W 86-64

+7.5

SMC

W 68-67

+3.5

NEV

L 66-81

−18.5

UNM

W 62-53

+3.5

SDSU

L 107-110

+1.5

GCU

L 58-75

−25.5

USU

L 68-93

−23.5

covered 8didn’t cover 6avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+26.5

RGV

W 85-65

−11.5

MTST

W 62-58

−27.5

WICH

W 62-59

−29.5

USC

L 67-70

−18.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−1.5

BTLR

W 77-68

−3.5

DUQ

W 86-64

−0.5

SMC

W 68-67

−4.5

NEV

L 66-81

+5.5

UNM

W 62-53

−31.5

SDSU

L 107-110

+78.5

GCU

L 58-75

−7.5

USU

L 68-93

+11.5

over 4under 10avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNLV

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-750%

O O O O O U O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsALA	L 76-115	+13.5	L −25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 27	vsRUTG	L 65-80	-4.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 7	@STAN	W 75-74	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsTNST	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsFRES	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 156
Jan 3	vsAF	W 67-39	-14.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	@WYO	L 66-98	+4.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 9	@CSU	L 62-70	+6.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

ALA

L 76-115

−25.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−19.5

STAN

W 75-74

+10.5

TNST

L 60-63

−15.5

FRES

W 84-72

+3.5

W 67-39

+13.5

WYO

L 66-98

−27.5

CSU

L 62-70

−1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

ALA

L 76-115

+9.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−8.5

STAN

W 75-74

−15.5

TNST

L 60-63

−38.5

FRES

W 84-72

−3.5

W 67-39

−36.5

WYO

L 66-98

+9.5

CSU

L 62-70

−19.5

over 7under 7avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boise St

UNLV

Boise St

UNLV