1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. STBK @ OSU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ohio State Buckeyes

Schottenstein Center · at Ohio State
#191STBKStony Brook
@
#33OSUOhio State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STBKThis seasonOSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OSU 85–62 · win probability OSU 98%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

STBK 0, OSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OSUBig
STBK offense vs OSU defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
STBK has played the 204th-hardest schedule, OSU the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
OSUBig
Three-pointers
STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%; OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 45.8% and 40.1% of their shots
OSUBig
OSU offense vs STBK defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
OSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: STBK 28.4, OSU 37.2. Allowed: STBK 35.4, OSU 34.7
OSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7; OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2
OSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STBK 28.0%, OSU 30.4%. Defensive: STBK 67.7%, OSU 70.0%
OSUSmall
Home court
OSU at home. This season: OSU 0-0 at home, STBK 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STBK 48%, OSU 37%. Transfers in: STBK 5, OSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STBK 16.7%, OSU 15.3%. Forced: STBK 17.2%, OSU 15.6%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: STBK plays 67.3 a game (269th fastest), OSU 67.2 (275th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OSU -23.0—
Total—147.8—
Projected score—STBK 62.4 · OSU 85.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOSU -13.5—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreSTBK 27.8 · OSU 41.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ohio State has the better starters

Position by position: Stony Brook 0, Ohio State 4, even 1
Stony BrookBetterOhio State
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
OSUBig
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
OSUBig
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
OSUBig
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
OSUBig
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
Stony BrookBetterOhio State
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
OSUBig
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
OSUBig
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
OSUBig
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
OSUBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
OSUSmall
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSTBK betterOSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STBKOSU
Scoring
70.7 #270Points per game79.3 #76
1.05 #254Points per possession1.18 #31
67.3 #269Pace (possessions)67.2 #275
Shooting
50.2 #227Effective FG%56.2 #19
34.8 #1283-point %35.7 #72
45.8 #503-point attempt rate40.1 #170
28.4 #339Free throw rate37.2 #122
Possessions
16.7 #181Turnover rate15.3 #91
28.0 #267Offensive rebound rate30.4 #185
12.9 #216Assists per game14.5 #117
Defense
72.5 #118Points allowed72.6 #120
1.08 #168Points allowed per possession1.08 #164
50.7 #138Opponent effective FG%50.2 #114
35.7 #291Opponent 3-point %31.9 #57
17.2 #135Turnovers forced15.6 #243
67.7 #275Defensive rebound rate70.0 #160
6.3 #201Steals per game4.8 #340
3.6 #122Blocks per game2.4 #311
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.