1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. MVSU @ MSST
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
#366MVSUMiss Valley St
@
#53MSSTMississippi St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MVSUThis seasonMSST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 96–56 · win probability MSST 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

MVSU 0, MSST 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSSTBig
MSST offense vs MVSU defense
Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSSTBig
MVSU offense vs MSST defense
Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings
MSSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9
MSSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, MSST 69.3%
MSSTBig
Three-pointers
MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 30.2% and 40.1% of their shots
MSSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, MSST 30.6. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, MSST 32.3
MSSTSmall
Home court
MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, MSST 12.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSST -40.0—
Total—152.6—
Projected score—MVSU 56.3 · MSST 96.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSST -23.7—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreMVSU 23.8 · MSST 47.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, Mississippi St 1, even 4
Miss Valley StBetterMississippi St
G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
MSSTBig
G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99
G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86
G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83
G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31
F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71
Miss Valley StBetterMississippi St
MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5
MSSTBig
MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1
MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3
MSSTBig
MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5
Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players
MSSTBig
Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMVSU betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miss Valley St
Guards
T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew
Forwards
T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew
Centers
T. WuNew
Mississippi St
Guards
J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew
Forwards
K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew
Centers
N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MVSUMSST
Scoring
63.2 #356Points per game77.6 #103
0.90 #364Points per possession1.07 #205
70.2 #111Pace (possessions)72.3 #29
Shooting
45.2 #359Effective FG%51.5 #172
29.5 #3463-point %32.4 #262
30.2 #3513-point attempt rate40.1 #169
33.9 #215Free throw rate30.6 #288
Possessions
21.9 #361Turnover rate16.0 #143
26.4 #313Offensive rebound rate29.8 #210
11.9 #296Assists per game12.8 #231
Defense
83.7 #353Points allowed81.8 #338
1.20 #355Points allowed per possession1.13 #299
55.5 #341Opponent effective FG%50.9 #154
37.2 #346Opponent 3-point %33.9 #179
17.1 #142Turnovers forced12.8 #358
64.5 #346Defensive rebound rate69.3 #190
7.1 #119Steals per game5.8 #260
2.6 #300Blocks per game4.4 #44
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Grambling52–77
  • L@ Jackson St77–85
  • L@ Alcorn St64–67
  • W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
  • L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn61–79
  • Lvs Georgia96–102
  • L@ Florida74–108
  • Lvs Missouri64–88
  • L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.