1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. YSU @ MISS
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Youngstown State Penguins at Ole Miss Rebels

The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss
#265YSUYoungstown St
@
#46MISSOle Miss
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YSUThis seasonMISS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 86–62 · win probability MISS 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

YSU 1, MISS 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MISSBig
YSU offense vs MISS defense
Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings
MISSBig
MISS offense vs YSU defense
Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings
MISSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, MISS 16.5%
YSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, MISS 67.4%
MISSSmall
Home court
MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away
MISSSmall
Three-pointers
YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 49.4% and 35.5% of their shots
MISSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: YSU 6, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, MISS 33.0. Allowed: YSU 36.0, MISS 41.2
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MISS -24.0—
Total—148.3—
Projected score—YSU 62.1 · MISS 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMISS -14.2—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreYSU 27.6 · MISS 41.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, Ole Miss 5, even 0
Youngstown StBetterOle Miss
G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30
MISSBig
G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
MISSBig
G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78
G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18
MISSBig
G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88
G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
MISSBig
F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
MISSBig
F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
Youngstown StBetterOle Miss
YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1
MISSBig
MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0
YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8
MISSBig
MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
MISSBig
Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
MISSBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
MISSBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestYSU betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Youngstown St
Guards
L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew
Forwards
J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew
Centers
K. AmoakoNew
Ole Miss
Guards
C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew
Forwards
D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew
Centers
M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YSUMISS
Scoring
75.1 #162Points per game75.9 #145
1.09 #160Points per possession1.09 #157
68.9 #188Pace (possessions)69.5 #145
Shooting
53.6 #76Effective FG%50.5 #217
33.8 #1843-point %33.2 #221
49.4 #173-point attempt rate35.5 #258
31.4 #272Free throw rate33.0 #238
Possessions
18.8 #314Turnover rate14.0 #23
30.4 #182Offensive rebound rate28.3 #253
14.0 #144Assists per game13.5 #178
Defense
74.9 #185Points allowed76.1 #219
1.09 #190Points allowed per possession1.10 #215
52.3 #228Opponent effective FG%50.5 #127
35.5 #280Opponent 3-point %33.5 #151
17.8 #106Turnovers forced16.5 #190
69.3 #191Defensive rebound rate67.4 #285
6.7 #151Steals per game7.1 #118
3.5 #146Blocks per game4.3 #48
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Robert Morris53–68
  • L@ Green Bay63–85
  • L@ Milwaukee65–78
  • Wvs N Kentucky64–58
  • Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas90–93
  • Wvs Alabama80–79
  • Wvs Georgia76–72
  • Wvs Texas76–66
  • Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.