Wright State Raiders at Youngstown State Penguins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 6:30 PM ETZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center · at Youngstown St · Conference game

#180WRSTWright St68final

Final

Closing lineYSU -3.5✓ WRST covered by 2.5

Closing total144.5Under by 7.5

Season records: Wright St and Youngstown St
WRST	This season	YSU
2-4	Record	3-4
4-2	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WRST 73–76 YSU · ✓ YSU (58%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WRST	29	39	68
YSU	36	33	69

1st half: WRST 29, YSU 36 (YSU by 7). The model had YSU by 1.2 and a total of 69.7 (actual 65).

Team stats

WRST		YSU
25-48 52%	Field goals	25-56 45%
3-13 23%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
15-28 54%	Free throws	12-20 60%
23 5 off	Rebounds	39 14 off
9	Assists	12
8	Steals	4
6	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	17
19	Fouls	20
38	Points in paint	34
11	Fast-break points	6

Players

WRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Solomon Callaghan G	34	5	3	0	1-3	0-2
Michael Cooper G	30	8	2	0	3-9	2-6
Andrea Holden G	28	11	4	2	5-6	0-0
Michael Imariagbe F	23	15	3	1	3-7	0-0
Logan Woods G	18	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
TJ Burch G	28	14	3	3	7-13	0-3
Sam Alamutu G	25	13	7	3	5-7	1-1
Dominic Pangonis G	9	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Kellen Pickett F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bryan Etumnu F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ayden Davis, Alex Bruskotter, PJ Douglas, Isaiah Williams

YSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cris Carroll F	35	19	7	1	5-11	2-7
Rich Rolf F	28	10	5	2	3-7	2-4
Bryson Dawkins G	25	13	6	0	6-9	1-2
Jason Nelson G	21	2	2	2	1-9	0-3
Imanuel Zorgvol F	15	8	3	2	4-7	0-1
Bench
Drew King G	19	1	2	1	0-0	0-0
Tae Blackshear G	17	5	3	3	2-4	1-1
Tyler Robinett F	15	2	4	0	1-4	0-1
Cam Polak G	15	4	0	0	1-1	0-0
Vlad Salaridze F	10	5	4	1	2-4	1-1

Did not play: Shaheed Solebo, Derrick Anderson, Jaiden Haynes, Markus Navarra, Connor Swider

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YSU -3.5	YSU -2.2	WRST +1.3	W WRST covered
Total	144.5	148.8	Over 4.3	L Under
Projected score	—	WRST 73.3 · YSU 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YSU -1.2	YSU -7.0
1H total	69.7	65
1H projected score	WRST 34.2 · YSU 35.4	WRST 29 · YSU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WRST LWWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1
YSU WLLWW	4-3	57%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: WRST away, as underdog; YSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WRST UUUUO	1-5	17%	2-4
YSU OOUUO	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WRSTlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%
YSUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

WRST 1–7 YSUYSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · YSU has won the last 6 meetings · WRST 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2024-25	WRST 86 @ YSU 88	YSU -2.5	WRST W
Dec 18, 2024-25	YSU 80 @ WRST 70	WRST -6.5	YSU W
Feb 1, 2023-24	YSU 88 @ WRST 77	WRST -2.5	YSU W
Jan 12, 2023-24	WRST 71 @ YSU 81	YSU -1.5	YSU W
Feb 2, 2022-23	WRST 89 @ YSU 91	YSU -4.5	WRST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wright St

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	@BTLR	L 69-94	+14.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

BTLR

L 69-94

−10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

BTLR

L 69-94

+12.5

over 1under 5avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Youngstown St

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

over 4under 3avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wright State Raiders at Youngstown State Penguins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wright St

Youngstown St

Wright St

Youngstown St