Youngstown State Penguins vs UNC Greensboro Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 5:30 PM ETJohn Hurst Adams Gymnasium · Neutral site

Final

Closing lineYSU -5.5✓ UNCG covered by 11.5

Closing total152.5Under by 22.5

Season records: Youngstown St and UNC Greensboro
YSU	This season	UNCG
1-3	Record	0-5
2-2	ATS	1-4
3-1	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: YSU 81–76 UNCG · ✗ YSU (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
YSU	43	19	62
UNCG	25	43	68

1st half: YSU 43, UNCG 25 (YSU by 18). The model had YSU by 3.4 and a total of 73.7 (actual 68).

Team stats

YSU		UNCG
23-63 37%	Field goals	24-55 44%
8-30 27%	3-pointers	5-18 28%
8-11 73%	Free throws	15-22 68%
38 10 off	Rebounds	41 9 off
8	Assists	12
14	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	11
28	Points in paint	32
20	Fast-break points	14

Players

YSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryson Dawkins G	30	18	7	1	8-15	2-6
Cris Carroll F	29	11	8	1	4-14	2-6
Rich Rolf F	24	6	5	0	2-4	0-1
Jason Nelson G	23	8	2	2	3-8	1-4
Imanuel Zorgvol F	16	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Drew King G	19	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Cam Polak G	19	0	3	1	0-4	0-4
Vlad Salaridze F	17	4	3	0	1-9	0-4
Tae Blackshear G	11	8	0	1	2-4	2-3
Tyler Robinett F	8	5	2	1	2-2	1-1
Jaiden Haynes G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Shaheed Solebo, Derrick Anderson, Markus Navarra, Connor Swider

UNCG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Neely F	35	16	16	3	4-7	0-0
Donald Whitehead Jr. G	33	14	2	0	5-12	2-7
KJ Younger G	28	11	8	2	4-8	1-3
Domas Kauzonas F	16	3	3	1	1-4	0-0
Lilian Marville G	14	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Noah Norgaard G	24	9	3	2	4-8	0-3
Clinton Efinda F	15	2	0	1	1-2	0-0
Valentino Pinedo F	13	3	3	2	1-5	0-0
Assane Mandian G	13	8	2	0	3-3	2-2
Landon King G	9	2	2	1	1-5	0-3

Did not play: Braylen Bowman, Chane Bynum, Jordan Brown, Clyde Bailey II, Antwann Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YSU -5.5	YSU -5.3	UNCG +0.2	W UNCG covered
Total	152.5	157.3	Over 4.8	L Under
Projected score	—	YSU 81.3 · UNCG 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YSU -3.4	YSU -18.0
1H total	73.7	68
1H projected score	YSU 38.5 · UNCG 35.2	YSU 43 · UNCG 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
YSU LWWL	2-2	50%	—	—
UNCG LLLLW	1-4	20%	—	1-2

Venue/role: YSU neutral site, as favorite; UNCG neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
UNCG OOOUO	4-1	80%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
UNCGlast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

over 3under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Greensboro

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −7.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +19.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

over 4under 1avg +19.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Youngstown State Penguins vs UNC Greensboro Spartans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

UNC Greensboro

Youngstown St

UNC Greensboro