The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss · Conference game
Closing line
MISS -3.5✓ MSST covered by 15.5
MISS -3.5✓ MSST covered by 15.5Closing total146.5Over by 21.5
 MSST | This season | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| 11-13 | Record | 11-13 |
| 8-16 | ATS | 8-16 |
| 11-13 | O/U | 14-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 73–76 MISS · ✗ MISS (62%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 47 | 43 | 90 |
| MISS | 28 | 50 | 78 |
1st half: MSST 47, MISS 28 (MSST by 19). The model had MISS by 2.0 and a total of 69.8 (actual 75).
Team stats
| MSST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-57 58% | Field goals | 27-65 42% |
| 11-24 46% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 13-22 59% | Free throws | 16-21 76% |
| 38 6 off | Rebounds | 35 10 off |
| 18 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 36 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 12-16 | 4-6 |
| Jayden Epps G | 33 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3-13 | 1-7 |
| Achor Achor F | 22 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 6-8 | 3-4 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 22 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 16 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 28 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 25 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| King Grace G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Brandon Walker, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Dellquan Warren, Gai Chol
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Klafke G | 31 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Malik Dia F | 30 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 11-20 | 1-4 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 30 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Patton Pinkins G | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 32 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 8-16 | 3-7 |
| Travis Perry G | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| James Scott F | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Zach Day G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Corey Chest F | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Koren Johnson G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Max Smith G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Niko Bundalo F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Kezza Giffa, Hobert Grayson IV
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMISS -4.5
1 → MSST
CloseMISS -3.5
1 pt toward MSST
Total
Open141.5
▲ 5
Close146.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +145 · MISS -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MISS -4.5 · closed MISS -3.5 · moved 1 toward MSSTmodel MISS -3.5 matches the line
model MISS -3.5 = line ✓
Opened 141.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 5 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MISS -3.5 | MISS -3.6 | MISS +0.1 | L MSST covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 149.2 | Over 2.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSST 72.8 · MISS 76.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MISS -2.0 | MSST -19.0 |
| 1H total | 69.8 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | MSST 33.9 · MISS 35.9 | MSST 47 · MISS 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| MISS | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MSST 6–3 MISSMSST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MSST 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | MISS 68 @ MSST 67 | MSST -3.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | MSST 81 @ MISS 71 | MISS -2.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | MISS 81 @ MSST 84 | MSST -5.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | MISS 71 @ MSST 83 | MSST -6.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | MSST 82 @ MISS 86 | MISS -0.5 | MISS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
24 games played
Straight up
11-13
46% wins
Against the spread
8-16
33% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-13
46% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vsMISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vs ARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vs TENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 16avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
over 11under 13avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ole Miss
24 games played
Straight up
11-13
46% wins
Against the spread
8-16
33% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsSELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vsMEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vsUTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vsARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vsMIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ UGA | W 97-95 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 17 | @MSST | W 68-67 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 20 | vs AUB | L 66-78 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @UK | L 63-72 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @VAN | L 68-71 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | @TENN | L 66-84 | +12.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @TEX | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 11 | vsALA | L 74-93 | +6.5 | L −12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+12.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
+4.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−8.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
+2.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
+7.5
3
@TENN
TENNL 66-84
−5.5
7
@TEX
TEXL 68-79
−1.5
11
vsALA
ALAL 74-93
−12.5
covered 8didn’t cover 16avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+33.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
−12.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−7.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
−10.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
−10.5
3
@TENN
TENNL 66-84
+10.5
7
@TEX
TEXL 68-79
+1.5
11
vsALA
ALAL 74-93
+2.5
over 14under 10avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
11-13 overall · 3-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Tennessee64–73
- Lvs Arkansas68–88
- L@ Missouri79–84
- W@ LSU80–66
- Lvs Vanderbilt56–88
3 days since their last game.
Ole Miss
11-13 overall · 3-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Alabama74–93
- L@ Texas68–79
- L@ Tennessee66–84
- L@ Vanderbilt68–71
- L@ Kentucky63–72
3 days since their last game.