Stony Brook Seawolves at Duquesne Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETUPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · at Duquesne

Final

#107DUQDuquesne84▲ winner

Closing lineDUQ -9.5✓ STBK covered by 0.5

Closing total150.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Stony Brook and Duquesne
STBK	This season	DUQ
4-2	Record	4-3
5-1	ATS	2-5
3-3	O/U	6-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STBK 72–82 DUQ · ✓ DUQ (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STBK	28	47	75
DUQ	40	44	84

1st half: STBK 28, DUQ 40 (DUQ by 12). The model had DUQ by 5.7 and a total of 71.9 (actual 68).

Team stats

STBK		DUQ
27-68 40%	Field goals	27-58 47%
10-30 33%	3-pointers	11-27 41%
11-14 79%	Free throws	19-26 73%
34 13 off	Rebounds	41 13 off
14	Assists	18
5	Steals	4
4	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	15
22	Points in paint	32
12	Fast-break points	20

Players

STBK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rob Brown III G	38	12	1	2	4-11	2-5
Erik Pratt G	34	19	6	6	7-16	2-6
Richard Goods F	32	19	10	1	7-15	4-6
Quin Gorman F	29	7	7	2	2-5	0-3
Andrej Shoshkikj G	12	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Toby Onyekonwu G	22	9	0	2	4-6	1-3
Tomas Valentiny F	11	2	2	1	0-5	0-3
Jonah Butler G	10	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Oleg Kojenets F	8	4	2	0	2-4	0-0
Ethan Simmon G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Collin O'Connor, Liam Dagostino, Andrew Okafor, Jake Harbatkin, Leon Nahar

DUQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tarence Guinyard G	34	5	6	6	1-7	0-1
Jakub Necas F	30	11	9	1	3-7	1-4
Jimmie Williams G	26	17	5	2	6-9	3-5
Cam Crawford G	26	6	5	1	2-6	1-4
John Hugley IV F	23	25	5	2	8-15	2-5
Bench
David Dixon F	15	7	4	1	2-3	1-1
Jake DiMichele G	14	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Maximus Edwards G	14	3	0	2	1-2	1-1
Alex Williams F	10	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Dom Aekins G	6	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Stef van Bussel C	2	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brandon Hall, Lucas Prolla, Seamus McDermott, Frederik Jellum, Lazar Milosevic, Ethan Anish, Arness Lawson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUQ -9.5	DUQ -9.7	DUQ +0.2	L STBK covered
Total	150.5	153.5	Over 3.0	W Over
Projected score	—	STBK 71.9 · DUQ 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUQ -5.7	DUQ -12.0
1H total	71.9	68
1H projected score	STBK 33.1 · DUQ 38.8	STBK 28 · DUQ 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STBK WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	3-1
DUQ LWLLL	2-5	29%	1-4	1-5

Venue/role: STBK away, as underdog; DUQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STBK OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
DUQ OOOOU	6-1	86%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STBKlast 6	4-2 67%	5-1 83%	3-3 50%
DUQlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	6-1 86%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STBK 0–1 DUQDUQ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STBK 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2023-24	STBK 63 @ DUQ 85	DUQ -12.5	DUQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stony Brook

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsBCU	W 61-54	+4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 28	@LMU	W 71-68	+10.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

BCU

W 61-54

+11.5

LMU

W 71-68

+13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

BCU

W 61-54

−30.5

LMU

W 71-68

+0.5

over 3under 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duquesne

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +11.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNIA	W 83-63	-17.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsSHU	W 92-80	-12.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsQUC	W 87-81	-12.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	@VILL	L 77-87	+10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsL-MD	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsNE	L 86-93	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 179
Dec 2	vsW&M	L 79-83	-5.5	L −9.5	170.5	U 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+2.5

SHU

W 92-80

−0.5

QUC

W 87-81

−6.5

VILL

L 77-87

+0.5

L-MD

W 92-78

−0.5

L 86-93

−14.5

W&M

L 79-83

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+6.5

SHU

W 92-80

+14.5

QUC

W 87-81

+5.5

VILL

L 77-87

+12.5

L-MD

W 92-78

+19.5

L 86-93

+31.5

W&M

L 79-83

−8.5

over 6under 1avg +11.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Duquesne Dukes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stony Brook

Duquesne

Stony Brook

Duquesne