UC Riverside Highlanders at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 9:30 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield · Conference game

Final

#329CSUBBakersfield67▲ winner

Closing lineCSUB -3.5✓ UCR covered by 2.5

Closing total147.5Under by 14.5

Season records: UC Riverside and Bakersfield
UCR	This season	CSUB
4-9	Record	5-9
7-6	ATS	6-8
8-5	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCR 75–77 CSUB · ✓ CSUB (56%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCR	35	31	66
CSUB	31	36	67

1st half: UCR 35, CSUB 31 (UCR by 4). The model had CSUB by 0.9 and a total of 71.4 (actual 66).

Team stats

UCR		CSUB
23-56 41%	Field goals	23-62 37%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	6-13 46%
10-16 63%	Free throws	15-20 75%
33 9 off	Rebounds	46 17 off
11	Assists	9
6	Steals	9
6	Blocks	4
16	Turnovers	15
20	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	28
4	Fast-break points	13

Players

UCR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
BJ Kolly F	40	9	11	2	4-8	0-0
Marqui Worthy Jr. G	40	19	2	2	5-15	2-6
Osiris Grady F	39	7	3	2	3-10	1-2
Tyler Jones G	30	7	4	2	2-7	1-6
Andrew Henderson G	27	18	5	2	6-11	6-7
Bench
Jailen Daniel-Dalton F	20	4	6	1	2-3	0-1
Ben Waller G	4	2	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Gavin Haase, Parker Strauss, Amaury McKinney, EJ Spillman, De'Undrae Perteete Jr., Dylan Godfrey, Daniel Tobiloba, Denzel Hines

CSUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ George G	35	8	0	2	4-12	0-2
Dailin Smith G	35	30	5	1	9-20	5-7
Ronald Jessamy F	32	7	13	3	3-14	0-1
Pierre Geneste Jr. C	22	3	6	0	1-1	0-0
Jaden Alexander G	11	7	3	0	2-2	1-1
Bench
Kadar Waller G	34	6	4	3	2-6	0-1
Tom Mark F	18	6	6	0	2-4	0-1
Mike Price G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Bentley Waller G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: TJ James Jr., Dylan Purnell, Colin Darby, CJ Hardy, Caleb McCarty

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CSUB -3.5	CSUB -1.8	UCR +1.7	W UCR covered
Total	147.5	152.5	Over 5.0	L Under
Projected score	—	UCR 75.4 · CSUB 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUB -0.9	UCR -4.0
1H total	71.4	66
1H projected score	UCR 35.2 · CSUB 36.2	UCR 35 · CSUB 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCR WLWLL	7-6	54%	6-4	6-5
CSUB LLWWW	6-8	43%	3-3	1-2

Venue/role: UCR away, as underdog; CSUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCR OUOOU	8-5	62%	4-9
CSUB UUUOO	6-8	43%	5-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CSUB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UCR 7–2 CSUBUCR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCR has won the last 4 meetings · UCR 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	CSUB 64 @ UCR 69	UCR -6.5	CSUB W
Jan 25, 2024-25	UCR 83 @ CSUB 79	CSUB -0.5	UCR W
Mar 13, 2023-24	CSUB 78 vs UCR 83	UCR -2.5	UCR W
Feb 8, 2023-24	CSUB 63 @ UCR 65	UCR -4.5	CSUB W
Jan 18, 2023-24	UCR 56 @ CSUB 80	CSUB +3	CSUB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Riverside

13 games played

Straight up

4-9

31% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-931%

W L L L W W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-654%

W W L L W W L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

U O O U O O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsGRAM	W 83-74	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 157
Nov 29	@UTU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 4	@UCI	L 60-73	+13.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	@CP	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@BYU	L 53-100	+33.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 20	@STMN	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 23	@UCLA	L 65-97	+24.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsHAW	L 45-88	+8.5	L −34.5	149.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+5.5

UTU

L 69-77

−2.5

UCI

L 60-73

+0.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−13.5

STMN

L 78-92

+0.5

UCLA

L 65-97

−7.5

HAW

L 45-88

−34.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+12.5

UTU

L 69-77

+0.5

UCI

L 60-73

−9.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−2.5

STMN

L 78-92

+17.5

UCLA

L 65-97

+13.5

HAW

L 45-88

−16.5

over 8under 5avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

14 games played

Straight up

5-9

36% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-936%

L W L L W L W L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L W W L L L W L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

U U O O O U U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsFRES	W 76-71	+10.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 4	@CSUN	L 66-87	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCSB	L 84-109	+12.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 11	vsNDSU	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsPEPP	L 62-70	-1.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 23	vsIDHO	W 64-63	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUCI	L 77-81	+11.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@UCD	W 81-79	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

FRES

W 76-71

+15.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−15.5

UCSB

L 84-109

−12.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−3.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−9.5

IDHO

W 64-63

+8.5

UCI

L 77-81

+7.5

UCD

W 81-79

+11.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

FRES

W 76-71

−3.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−2.5

UCSB

L 84-109

+47.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−0.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−15.5

IDHO

W 64-63

−23.5

UCI

L 77-81

+14.5

UCD

W 81-79

+8.5

over 6under 8avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Riverside Highlanders at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Riverside

Bakersfield

UC Riverside

Bakersfield