Galen Center · at USC · Conference game
Closing line
USC -5.5✓ ORE covered by 6.5
USC -5.5✓ ORE covered by 6.5Closing total149.5Under by 8.5
 ORE | This season | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 9-17 | Record | 17-8 |
| 8-18 | ATS | 13-12 |
| 12-14 | O/U | 14-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ORE 74–79 USC · ✗ USC (68%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 35 | 36 | 71 |
| USC | 32 | 38 | 70 |
1st half: ORE 35, USC 32 (ORE by 3). The model had USC by 3.0 and a total of 71.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| ORE | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-51 45% | Field goals | 23-60 38% |
| 4-16 25% | 3-pointers | 6-19 32% |
| 21-27 78% | Free throws | 18-24 75% |
| 33 8 off | Rebounds | 35 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 13 |
| 10 | Steals | 11 |
| 5 | Blocks | 8 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Bittle C | 38 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-2 |
| Takai Simpkins G | 35 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-2 |
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 32 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-3 |
| Drew Carter G | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Sean Stewart F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamari Phillips G | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Dez Lindsay F | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Wei Lin G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Luke Johnson F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Ege Demir, Oleksandr Kobzystyi, Devon Pryor, Miles Stewart, Jackson Shelstad
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Ausar F | 36 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 6-14 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 36 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 34 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 4-14 | 1-6 |
| Kam Woods G | 25 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 23 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 6-11 | 3-6 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Jerry Easter II, Rodney Rice
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -6.5
1 → ORE
CloseUSC -5.5
1 pt toward ORE
Total
Open146.5
▲ 3
Close149.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
ORE +200 · USC -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -6.5 · closed USC -5.5 · moved 1 toward OREmodel USC -5
model USC -5
Opened 146.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 3 upmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC -5.5 | USC -5.2 | ORE +0.3 | W ORE covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 153.3 | Over 3.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | ORE 74 · USC 79.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | USC -3.0 | ORE -3.0 |
| 1H total | 71.7 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | ORE 34.3 · USC 37.3 | ORE 35 · USC 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| USC | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ORE 6–2 USCORE leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ORE 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025-26 | USC 82 @ ORE 77 | ORE +2.5 | USC W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | USC 61 @ ORE 82 | ORE -7.5 | ORE W |
| Dec 4, 2024-25 | ORE 68 @ USC 60 | USC +6.5 | ORE W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | ORE 78 @ USC 69 | USC +2.5 | ORE W |
| Dec 28, 2023-24 | USC 74 @ ORE 82 | ORE -2.5 | ORE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Oregon
26 games played
Straight up
9-17
35% wins
Against the spread
8-18
31% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-14
46% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs HAW | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs RICE | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs SDST | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs ORST | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs AUB | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs SDSU | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs CREI | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 2 | vsUSC | L 77-82 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ UCLA | L 63-74 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCD | W 104-62 | -13.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs PORT | W 94-69 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs GONZ | L 82-91 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | vs OMA | W 80-57 | -21.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 2 | @ MD | W 64-54 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 5 | @ RUTG | L 85-88 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 8 | vs OSU | L 62-72 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | @ NEB | L 55-90 | +10.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs MICH | L 71-81 | +18.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs MSU | L 52-68 | +10.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 25 | @ WASH | L 57-72 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 28 | vsUCLA | L 57-73 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 1 | vs IOWA | L 66-84 | +9.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @ PUR | L 64-68 | +19.5 | W +15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 9 | @ IU | L 74-92 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 14 | vs PSU | W 83-72 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 17 | vs MINN | L 44-61 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 136.5 | U 105 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
−6.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
−19.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−7.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
−2.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−2.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+28.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+5.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+3.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
+1.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
+8.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
−7.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−11.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−24.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
+8.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−5.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−7.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−11.5
1
vsIOWA
IOWAL 66-84
−8.5
7
@PUR
PURL 64-68
+15.5
9
@IU
IUL 74-92
−7.5
14
vsPSU
PSUW 83-72
+4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNL 44-61
−20.5
covered 8didn’t cover 18avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
+1.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
+35.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−8.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
+4.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−9.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+19.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+8.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+17.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
−14.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
−28.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
+33.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−18.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−1.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
−5.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−19.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−14.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−6.5
1
vsIOWA
IOWAL 66-84
+16.5
7
@PUR
PURL 64-68
−12.5
9
@IU
IUL 74-92
+22.5
14
vsPSU
PSUW 83-72
+9.5
17
vsMINN
MINNL 44-61
−31.5
over 12under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
USC
25 games played
Straight up
17-8
68% wins
Against the spread
13-12
52% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vsWASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vsMD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vsPUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vs NU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | @ WIS | W 73-71 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @IOWA | L 72-73 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 31 | vsRUTG | W 78-75 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 3 | vsIU | W 81-75 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 8 | @PSU | W 77-75 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 11 | @OSU | L 82-89 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 18 | vs ILL | L 65-101 | +8.5 | L −27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
+9.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+8.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
−8.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+7.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−1.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+0.5
18
vsILL
ILLL 65-101
−27.5
covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
−14.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+3.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
+6.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+2.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−5.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+18.5
18
vsILL
ILLL 65-101
+14.5
over 14under 11avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oregon
9-17 overall · 2-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Minnesota44–61
- Wvs Penn State83–72
- L@ Indiana74–92
- L@ Purdue64–68
- Lvs Iowa66–84
4 days since their last game.
USC
17-8 overall · 7-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Illinois65–101
- L@ Ohio State82–89
- W@ Penn State77–75
- Wvs Indiana81–75
- Wvs Rutgers78–75
3 days since their last game.