UL Monroe Warhawks at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 7, 3:00 PM ETWilliam R. Johnson Coliseum · at SF Austin

#358ULMUL Monroe76final

Final

#193SFASF Austin96▲ winner

Closing lineSFA -19.5✓ SFA covered by 0.5

Closing total142.5Over by 29.5

Season records: UL Monroe and SF Austin
ULM	This season	SFA
1-6	Record	5-2
3-4	ATS	5-2
5-2	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ULM 63–82 SFA · ✓ SFA (95%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ULM	37	39	76
SFA	47	49	96

1st half: ULM 37, SFA 47 (SFA by 10). The model had SFA by 11.0 and a total of 67.8 (actual 84).

Team stats

ULM		SFA
26-66 39%	Field goals	38-69 55%
5-22 23%	3-pointers	12-28 43%
19-24 79%	Free throws	8-13 62%
36 13 off	Rebounds	41 11 off
10	Assists	23
4	Steals	6
2	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	8
10	Fouls	18
38	Points in paint	48
8	Fast-break points	13

Players

ULM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
MJ Russell G	38	20	5	4	7-20	1-6
Krystian Lewis G	36	17	3	2	5-15	2-4
Lavell Brodnex G	35	23	11	3	6-13	2-4
Alex Molofeev G	30	6	2	0	3-6	0-2
Renars Sondors F	22	4	3	0	2-8	0-5
Bench
Przemek Hartman C	18	6	3	1	3-3	0-0
Wiggy Ball G	15	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Alex Huguet F	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Ajay Tew G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brady Craig, Brentay Noel, Cam Campbell, Micah Caster, Dylan Diaz

SFA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keon Thompson G	27	25	5	5	9-14	1-3
Chrishawn Christmas G	27	8	7	4	4-6	0-0
Lateef Patrick Jr. G	24	6	4	4	2-10	2-7
Jerald Colonel F	23	3	8	5	1-2	0-0
Kam Burton G	20	6	1	0	2-5	2-4
Bench
Narit Chotikavanic G	23	17	1	1	6-10	5-8
Marcus Scurry G	15	7	2	1	3-4	1-2
Gediminas Alisas F	14	12	3	2	6-8	0-0
Ahamed Mohammed G	12	4	4	1	1-3	1-3
Eltramon Smith F	5	4	1	0	2-3	0-1
Christian Green G	3	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bryceson Melvin G	3	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Harris Dar G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Tichyque Musaka F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Yohan Gutierrez

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SFA -19.5	SFA -18.4	ULM +1.1	L SFA covered
Total	142.5	144.8	Over 2.3	W Over
Projected score	—	ULM 63.2 · SFA 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SFA -11.0	SFA -10.0
1H total	67.8	84
1H projected score	ULM 28.4 · SFA 39.4	ULM 37 · SFA 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-3	2-4
SFA WLWLW	5-2	71%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; SFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOOU	5-2	71%	1-6
SFA UOUUU	2-5	29%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULMlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
SFAlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ULM 1–1 SFASeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · ULM 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	SFA 68 @ ULM 60	ULM +4.5	SFA W
Dec 14, 2021-22	ULM 82 @ SFA 69	SFA -12	ULM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UL Monroe

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

over 5under 2avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

SF Austin

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsARST	W 90-65	+1.5	W +26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@RICE	W 81-69	+2.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsACU	W 76-66	-6.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@FRES	L 78-80	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	@PEPP	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 29	@UTA	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsRGV	W 73-60	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

+26.5

RICE

W 81-69

+14.5

ACU

W 76-66

+3.5

FRES

L 78-80

−4.5

PEPP

W 63-60

+1.5

UTA

L 61-66

−3.5

RGV

W 73-60

+6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

−0.5

RICE

W 81-69

+0.5

ACU

W 76-66

−0.5

FRES

L 78-80

+11.5

PEPP

W 63-60

−25.5

UTA

L 61-66

−11.5

RGV

W 73-60

−10.5

over 2under 5avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UL Monroe Warhawks at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UL Monroe

SF Austin

UL Monroe

SF Austin