Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 17, 9:00 PM ETThe Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara · Conference game

#140HAWHawai'i62final

Final

#134UCSBSanta Barbara77▲ winner

Closing lineHAW -2.5✓ UCSB covered by 17.5

Closing total143.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Hawai'i and Santa Barbara
HAW	This season	UCSB
11-3	Record	8-7
6-6	ATS	4-11
3-9	O/U	8-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HAW 75–70 UCSB · ✗ HAW (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HAW	21	41	62
UCSB	40	37	77

1st half: HAW 21, UCSB 40 (UCSB by 19). The model had HAW by 3.4 and a total of 67.8 (actual 61).

Team stats

HAW		UCSB
22-53 42%	Field goals	29-53 55%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
10-13 77%	Free throws	12-15 80%
28 11 off	Rebounds	32 9 off
11	Assists	10
6	Steals	8
1	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	12
13	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	40
5	Fast-break points	10

Players

HAW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor G	34	2	3	1	1-7	0-1
Hunter Erickson G	29	7	2	3	3-5	1-3
Harry Rouhliadeff F	28	13	2	0	5-6	1-1
Dre Bullock G	23	7	6	1	3-8	1-3
Isaac Johnson C	19	10	2	1	3-8	1-5
Bench
Gytis Nemeiksa F	25	5	5	1	0-3	0-3
Isaiah Kerr G	22	13	3	2	5-8	3-4
Isaac Finlinson F	12	3	2	2	1-5	1-2
Yacine Toumi F	8	2	2	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Hunter Carter, AJ Economou, Jalen Myers, Tanner Cuff

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Mahaney G	34	17	4	4	6-11	3-6
Miro Little G	28	11	5	3	3-9	3-5
Colin Smith F	27	10	5	1	4-8	0-2
Marvin McGhee IV G	15	3	1	1	1-2	0-1
Evans Kipruto C	13	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
CJ Shaw G	27	7	2	0	2-3	0-1
Zion Sensley G	26	11	4	1	4-8	1-3
Hosana Kitenge F	23	12	5	0	6-6	0-0
Michael Simcoe F	7	2	1	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Kyle Haughy, John Simcoe, Luke Zuffelato, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Koat Keat Tong, Jason Fontenet II, Isaac Shingange

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HAW -2.5	HAW -5.6	HAW +3.1	L UCSB covered
Total	143.5	144.8	Over 1.3	L Under
Projected score	—	HAW 75.2 · UCSB 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAW -3.4	UCSB -19.0
1H total	67.8	61
1H projected score	HAW 35.6 · UCSB 32.2	HAW 21 · UCSB 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LWLLW	6-6	50%	3-1	5-5
UCSB WLLLL	4-11	27%	3-3	1-3

Venue/role: HAW away, as favorite; UCSB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUOUU	3-9	25%	11-3
UCSB UOUOU	8-7	53%	8-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	8-2 80%	3-5 38%	2-6 25%
UCSB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

HAW 1–7 UCSBUCSB leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 7 meetings · HAW 2-5-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	HAW 72 @ UCSB 76	UCSB -5.5	HAW W
Jan 2, 2024-25	UCSB 64 @ HAW 61	HAW -2.5	UCSB W
Feb 17, 2023-24	HAW 71 @ UCSB 77	UCSB -1.5	UCSB W
Jan 25, 2023-24	UCSB 78 @ HAW 61	HAW -3.5	UCSB W
Mar 4, 2022-23	HAW 61 @ UCSB 81	UCSB -4.5	UCSB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawai'i

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-9

25% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

L W W W W L W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

W W L W L L W––L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-925%

U O U U U O U––U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsUTU	W 68-62	-16.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsASU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 28	vsUND	W 92-55	-18.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 4	vsUCD	W 75-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 6	vsCSUF	W 69-59	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	vsUTEP	W 66-61	-12.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UCR	W 88-45	-8.5	W +34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 3	@UCSD	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsUCI	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 15	@CP	W 86-66	-5.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−10.5

ASU

L 76-83

−8.5

UND

W 92-55

+18.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−7.5

UCR

W 88-45

+34.5

UCSD

L 73-83

−7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−3.5

W 86-66

+14.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−19.5

ASU

L 76-83

+15.5

UND

W 92-55

−2.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−11.5

UCR

W 88-45

−16.5

UCSD

L 73-83

+7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−7.5

W 86-66

−8.5

over 3under 9avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

4-11

27% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-7

53% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-1127%

W L L L L W L W L L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-753%

O O O U U O O O U U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsSEA	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 4	vsLBSU	W 84-77	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsCSUB	W 109-84	-12.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 13	vsUVU	L 53-68	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	@GB	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 22	vsPORT	W 79-61	-9.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 1	@CSUF	L 84-95	-3.5	L −14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	@CSUN	L 65-74	+2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUCD	L 86-93	-4.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 15	@CSUB	W 75-69	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

SEA

W 74-71

+5.5

LBSU

W 84-77

−6.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+12.5

UVU

L 53-68

−9.5

L 64-67

−10.5

PORT

W 79-61

+8.5

CSUF

L 84-95

−14.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−6.5

UCD

L 86-93

−11.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

SEA

W 74-71

+2.5

LBSU

W 84-77

+19.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+47.5

UVU

L 53-68

−25.5

L 64-67

−9.5

PORT

W 79-61

−7.5

CSUF

L 84-95

+23.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−17.5

UCD

L 86-93

+31.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−0.5

over 8under 7avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hawai'i

Santa Barbara

Hawai'i

Santa Barbara