Utah Tech Trailblazers at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 11:59 PM ETStan Sheriff Center · at Hawai'i

#268UTUUtah Tech62final

Final

#140HAWHawai'i68▲ winner

Closing lineHAW -16.5✓ UTU covered by 10.5

Closing total149.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Utah Tech and Hawai'i
UTU	This season	HAW
2-3	Record	3-1
2-3	ATS	3-1
1-4	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTU 67–82 HAW · ✓ HAW (91%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTU	21	41	62
HAW	30	38	68

1st half: UTU 21, HAW 30 (HAW by 9). The model had HAW by 9.0 and a total of 69.7 (actual 51).

Team stats

UTU		HAW
23-56 41%	Field goals	23-48 48%
5-21 24%	3-pointers	1-14 7%
11-15 73%	Free throws	21-25 84%
24 5 off	Rebounds	39 9 off
7	Assists	10
14	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	19
22	Fouls	17
28	Points in paint	40
14	Fast-break points	17

Players

UTU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Noah Bolanga G	33	12	4	0	5-13	0-7
Ethan Potter F	33	15	5	1	4-10	0-1
Chance Trujillo G	32	9	3	1	3-7	2-5
Madiba Owona G	29	4	5	0	2-8	0-2
Tanner Davis G	26	5	1	1	2-5	0-0
Bench
Jusaun Holt G	27	14	5	2	6-10	2-4
Britton Berrett G	11	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
Samuel Ariyibi F	7	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Boston Harker G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dallin Grant, Hunter Schenck, Preston Vandermyde, Marvel Allen, Dario Domingos

HAW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hunter Erickson G	34	0	5	2	0-2	0-1
Gytis Nemeiksa F	33	12	7	1	5-11	0-3
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor G	27	2	2	1	1-3	0-0
Dre Bullock G	27	23	5	2	7-12	1-4
Isaac Johnson C	26	14	11	2	4-6	0-2
Bench
Isaac Finlinson F	17	7	0	1	1-5	0-2
Isaiah Kerr G	15	2	0	0	1-3	0-2
Jalen Myers F	12	6	2	1	3-4	0-0
Yacine Toumi F	9	2	3	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Harry Rouhliadeff, Tanner Cuff, AJ Economou, Hunter Carter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HAW -16.5	HAW -15.2	UTU +1.3	W UTU covered
Total	149.5	148.8	Under 0.7	W Under
Projected score	—	UTU 66.8 · HAW 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAW -9.0	HAW -9.0
1H total	69.7	51
1H projected score	UTU 30.3 · HAW 39.4	UTU 21 · HAW 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTU WWLLL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-1
HAW WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: UTU away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTU UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
HAW UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
HAWlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Tech

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SDAK	W 81-79	+1.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 7	@ARIZ	L 67-93	+33.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 9	@ASU	L 66-81	+12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 12	vsMAN	L 75-79	-2.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	vsMVSU	W 81-75	-26.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 81-79

+3.5

ARIZ

L 67-93

+7.5

ASU

L 66-81

−2.5

MAN

L 75-79

−6.5

MVSU

W 81-75

−20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 81-79

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-93

−2.5

ASU

L 66-81

−5.5

MAN

L 75-79

−4.5

MVSU

W 81-75

+10.5

over 1under 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawai'i

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

over 1under 3avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Tech Trailblazers at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Tech

Hawai'i

Utah Tech

Hawai'i