The Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara · Conference game
Closing line
UCSB -8.5✓ UCSB covered by 31.5
UCSB -8.5✓ UCSB covered by 31.5Closing total159.5Over by 14.5
 CP | This season | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| 5-12 | Record | 9-7 |
| 8-9 | ATS | 5-11 |
| 9-8 | O/U | 8-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 78–85 UCSB · ✓ UCSB (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| UCSB | 59 | 48 | 107 |
1st half: CP 33, UCSB 59 (UCSB by 26). The model had UCSB by 3.9 and a total of 76.3 (actual 92).
Team stats
| CP | UCSB | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-49 47% | Field goals | 42-63 67% |
| 7-26 27% | 3-pointers | 15-29 52% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 8-11 73% |
| 17 5 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 12 | Assists | 23 |
| 6 | Steals | 10 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 54 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Davis G | 27 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-7 |
| Cayden Ward G | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 25 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Kieran Elliott G | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Tarlac G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Austin Goode F | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Ali Assran F | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Price Jr. PF | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Eric Brown F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Jason Scott, Guzman Vasilic, Jackson Mosley
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney G | 23 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Miro Little G | 22 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Colin Smith F | 20 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 19 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Evans Kipruto C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Shaw G | 22 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 6-9 | 4-6 |
| Zion Sensley G | 21 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 8-12 | 3-5 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Koat Keat Tong F | 12 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| ZZ Clark G | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Michael Simcoe F | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Luke Zuffelato G | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| John Simcoe F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Haughy F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Shingange G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce Bedgood, Jason Fontenet II
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSB -8.5
no move
CloseUCSB -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open160.5
▼ 1
Close159.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CP +350 · UCSB -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSB -8.5 · unchangedmodel UCSB -6.5
model UCSB -6.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 1 downmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 | UCSB -6.7 | CP +1.8 | L UCSB covered |
| Total | 159.5 | 163.1 | Over 3.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | CP 78.2 · UCSB 84.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UCSB -3.9 | UCSB -26.0 |
| 1H total | 76.3 | 92 |
| 1H projected score | CP 36.2 · UCSB 40.1 | CP 33 · UCSB 59 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| UCSB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
CP 0–8 UCSBUCSB leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 8 meetings · CP 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | CP 77 @ UCSB 96 | UCSB -6.5 | UCSB W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | UCSB 75 @ CP 72 | CP +4.5 | CP W |
| Feb 29, 2023-24 | CP 75 @ UCSB 83 | UCSB -13.5 | CP W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UCSB 61 @ CP 52 | CP +6.5 | UCSB W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | CP 54 vs UCSB 64 | UCSB -10.5 | CP W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
17 games played
Straight up
5-12
29% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-8
53% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vs IDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @ LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @ CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | vs UCD | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vs HAW | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
+7.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−14.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
−6.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−8.5
over 9under 8avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Santa Barbara
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
5-11
31% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-8
50% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vsSEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vsLBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vsUCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 15 | @CSUB | W 75-69 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vsHAW | W 77-62 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−1.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
+17.5
covered 5didn’t cover 11avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−0.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
−4.5
over 8under 8avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
5-12 overall · 3-4 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Hawai'i66–86
- Wvs UC Davis84–78
- L@ CSU Northridge90–95
- L@ Long Beach St66–74
- Wvs UC San Diego67–65
A week or more of rest.
Santa Barbara
9-7 overall · 4-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Hawai'i77–62
- W@ Bakersfield75–69
- Lvs UC Davis86–93
- L@ CSU Northridge65–74
- L@ Fullerton84–95
5 days since their last game.