Western Carolina Catamounts at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

Final

#325UPSTSC Upstate78▲ winner

Closing lineUPST -2.5✓ UPST covered by 8.5

Closing total149.5Under by 4.5

Season records: W Carolina and SC Upstate
WCU	This season	UPST
2-4	Record	3-5
1-5	ATS	6-2
3-3	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WCU 75–79 UPST · ✓ UPST (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WCU	38	29	67
UPST	40	38	78

1st half: WCU 38, UPST 40 (UPST by 2). The model had UPST by 1.8 and a total of 72.2 (actual 78).

Team stats

WCU		UPST
20-58 34%	Field goals	23-51 45%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
23-28 82%	Free throws	24-30 80%
34 9 off	Rebounds	40 7 off
5	Assists	14
6	Steals	3
1	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	13
24	Fouls	23
30	Points in paint	22
3	Fast-break points	12

Players

WCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cord Stansberry G	34	11	6	1	2-6	0-1
Julien Soumaoro G	28	10	4	1	4-12	2-6
Abdulai Fanta Kabba C	28	8	5	0	3-5	0-0
Tahlan Pettway G	15	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Marcus Kell F	12	2	1	0	1-4	0-2
Bench
CJ Hyland G	26	10	0	1	2-8	1-3
Justin Johnson F	22	13	6	0	4-10	1-2
Tidjiane Dioumassi G	19	3	1	1	1-6	0-2
Samuel Dada F	12	10	8	0	3-5	0-0
Tayeshaun Smith F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Fischer Brown G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Max Williams, Drew Hollifield, Titian DeRosa, Vernon Collins Jr., Chase McKey

UPST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Bendinger G	31	15	6	1	5-9	0-1
Tyler Smith G	29	5	4	4	2-7	1-4
Learic Davis F	26	11	9	1	4-6	1-3
Karmani Gregory G	25	15	1	6	4-9	2-5
Coen Collier C	20	4	5	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Adkins G	26	14	7	1	4-10	2-7
Isaiah Skinner G	19	10	1	1	2-6	2-5
Jafeth Martinez F	11	4	4	0	1-1	0-0
Kanye Jones G	9	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Chico Johnson G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: TJ Lewis, Breylin Garcia, Nic Book, CJ Rich

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UPST -2.5	UPST -3.3	UPST +0.8	W UPST covered
Total	149.5	154.2	Over 4.7	L Under
Projected score	—	WCU 75.4 · UPST 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UPST -1.8	UPST -2.0
1H total	72.2	78
1H projected score	WCU 35.2 · UPST 37	WCU 38 · UPST 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WCU LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-4	1-4
UPST LLWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: WCU away, as underdog; UPST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WCU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
UPST OUOUO	4-4	50%	3-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WCUlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	3-3 50%
UPSTlast 8	3-5 38%	6-2 75%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WCU 2–2 UPSTSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · WCU 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	UPST 74 @ WCU 68	WCU -8.5	UPST W
Dec 16, 2023-24	WCU 70 @ UPST 53	UPST +4.5	WCU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	UPST 79 @ WCU 64	WCU -7.5	UPST W
Dec 4, 2021-22	WCU 78 @ UPST 73	UPST +2	WCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Carolina

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CIN	L 63-94	+22.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 8	@DUKE	L 54-95	+36.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSTET	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsUNCA	W 80-73	+1.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 22	@LIP	L 62-83	+5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 29	@HPU	L 73-93	+16.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

−8.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−4.5

STET

W 76-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+8.5

LIP

L 62-83

−15.5

HPU

L 73-93

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

+13.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−3.5

STET

W 76-65

−14.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+0.5

LIP

L 62-83

−6.5

HPU

L 73-93

+6.5

over 3under 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

8 games played

Straight up

3-5

38% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-538%

L W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-450%

O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

over 4under 4avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western Carolina Catamounts at South Carolina Upstate Spartans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Carolina

SC Upstate

W Carolina

SC Upstate