South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Presbyterian Blue Hose: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETTempleton Center · at Presbyterian · Conference game

#325UPSTSC Upstate77final

Final

#183PRESPresbyterian86▲ winner

Closing linePRES -1.5✓ PRES covered by 7.5

Closing total137.5Over by 25.5

Season records: SC Upstate and Presbyterian
UPST	This season	PRES
5-8	Record	4-8
8-5	ATS	6-6
5-8	O/U	4-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UPST 68–71 PRES · ✓ PRES (58%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UPST	30	47	77
PRES	31	55	86

1st half: UPST 30, PRES 31 (PRES by 1). The model had PRES by 1.2 and a total of 65.0 (actual 61).

Team stats

UPST		PRES
28-54 52%	Field goals	26-47 55%
8-17 47%	3-pointers	3-8 38%
13-22 59%	Free throws	31-43 72%
24 5 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
11	Assists	14
4	Steals	6
1	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	9
32	Fouls	21
34	Points in paint	40
12	Fast-break points	8

Players

UPST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Smith G	32	9	2	2	4-5	1-2
Karmani Gregory G	31	9	2	4	3-10	3-5
Mason Bendinger G	29	17	1	0	6-13	0-1
Learic Davis F	29	18	4	1	6-9	2-3
Breylin Garcia F	14	8	5	1	4-6	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Adkins G	23	11	3	1	3-5	2-4
Isaiah Skinner G	17	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Coen Collier C	9	0	1	2	0-1	0-0
Jafeth Martinez F	9	3	2	0	1-2	0-0
Kanye Jones G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chico Johnson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nic Book, CJ Rich, TJ Lewis

PRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jonah Pierce F	38	29	12	3	11-13	0-0
Josh Pickett G	38	8	0	3	3-7	2-3
Jaylen Peterson F	32	13	13	0	4-8	0-0
Carl Parrish G	27	11	0	4	4-9	1-2
Triston Wilson G	25	23	0	3	3-7	0-2
Bench
Iverson King G	28	2	3	1	1-3	0-1
Khalon Hudson G	7	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
JD Bowden G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chidi Chiakwelu F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Allison, Erik Taylor, Amare Anderson, Augustine Ayelyine

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRES -1.5	PRES -2.2	PRES +0.7	W PRES covered
Total	137.5	138.8	Over 1.3	W Over
Projected score	—	UPST 68.3 · PRES 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRES -1.2	PRES -1.0
1H total	65.0	61
1H projected score	UPST 31.9 · PRES 33.1	UPST 30 · PRES 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	8-5	62%	5-3	5-2
PRES WLWLL	6-6	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: UPST away, as underdog; PRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UUOUU	5-8	38%	5-8
PRES UUOUO	4-8	33%	4-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PRES	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

UPST 6–2 PRESUPST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UPST 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2024-25	UPST 64 @ PRES 75	PRES -6.5	PRES W
Jan 8, 2024-25	PRES 67 @ UPST 77	UPST +3.5	UPST W
Feb 28, 2023-24	PRES 72 @ UPST 74	UPST -1.5	UPST W
Jan 31, 2023-24	UPST 73 @ PRES 80	PRES -1.5	PRES W
Feb 22, 2022-23	UPST 59 @ PRES 57	PRES +1.5	UPST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

13 games played

Straight up

5-8

38% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-838%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-562%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

over 5under 8avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Presbyterian

12 games played

Straight up

4-8

33% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-833%

L W W L L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L W W L W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-833%

U U U O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 30	vsCIT	W 69-41	-8.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 3	@WOF	L 56-63	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 119
Dec 6	vsMORE	W 80-72	-7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 17	@ECU	L 53-74	+4.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 21	@MAN	L 81-87	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-41

+19.5

WOF

L 56-63

−2.5

W 80-72

+0.5

ECU

L 53-74

−16.5

MAN

L 81-87

−8.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

CIT

W 69-41

−23.5

WOF

L 56-63

−19.5

W 80-72

+17.5

ECU

L 53-74

−4.5

MAN

L 81-87

+29.5

over 4under 8avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Presbyterian Blue Hose

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC Upstate

Presbyterian

SC Upstate

Presbyterian