Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at UTEP Miners: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 9:00 PM ETDon Haskins Center · at UTEP · Conference game

#154MTSUMTSU80final

Final

#190UTEPUTEP83▲ winner

Closing lineMTSU -3.5✓ UTEP covered by 6.5

Closing total137.5Over by 25.5

Season records: MTSU and UTEP
MTSU	This season	UTEP
6-5	Record	1-10
6-5	ATS	3-8
4-7	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MTSU 72–66 UTEP · ✗ MTSU (67%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
MTSU	44	29	7	80
UTEP	37	36	10	83

1st half: MTSU 44, UTEP 37 (MTSU by 7). The model had MTSU by 3.2 and a total of 64.6 (actual 81).

Team stats

MTSU		UTEP
28-59 47%	Field goals	25-58 43%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
15-17 88%	Free throws	25-36 69%
32 7 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
14	Assists	13
5	Steals	5
4	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	9
28	Fouls	16
32	Points in paint	30
12	Fast-break points	16

Players

MTSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alec Oglesby G	39	7	1	0	2-8	2-7
Kamari Lands G	37	12	1	2	3-10	2-5
Chris Loofe F	27	16	7	0	6-6	1-1
Jahvin Carter G	27	6	8	7	2-10	0-3
Torey Alston F	20	8	5	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Sean Smith G	30	16	1	4	5-7	1-2
Tre Green G	15	8	1	0	3-6	2-5
Luka Jovanovic C	14	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
James Dent Jr. G	11	3	0	1	1-2	1-1
Jarred Hall F	5	0	3	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle, Marcus Whitlock Jr.

UTEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamal West Jr. F	43	16	8	3	6-15	0-1
Kaseem Watson F	43	23	7	0	7-15	5-8
KJ Thomas G	41	11	5	4	3-6	1-2
Elijah Jones F	36	20	4	0	8-12	2-3
Cassius Brooks G	18	2	2	2	0-2	0-1
Bench
LA Hayes G	30	10	10	3	1-6	0-3
Mouhamed Mbaye C	5	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
C.J. Smith F	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Jordan Hernandez G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bobby Montgomery Jr. G	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: David Tubek, Trey Horton III, Tyreese Watson, Caleb Blackwell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MTSU -3.5	MTSU -5.1	MTSU +1.6	L UTEP covered
Total	137.5	137.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	MTSU 71.5 · UTEP 66.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -3.2	MTSU -7.0
1H total	64.6	81
1H projected score	MTSU 33.9 · UTEP 30.7	MTSU 44 · UTEP 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLWWL	6-5	55%	3-0	1-2
UTEP LWLLL	3-8	27%	1-2	3-6

Venue/role: MTSU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUUOU	4-7	36%	6-5
UTEP OOOOU	5-6	45%	1-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UTEP	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

MTSU 6–2 UTEPMTSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 3 meetings · MTSU 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	MTSU 76 @ UTEP 75	UTEP -2.5	MTSU W
Feb 1, 2024-25	UTEP 68 @ MTSU 71	MTSU -3.5	UTEP W
Feb 17, 2023-24	UTEP 90 @ MTSU 96	MTSU -0.5	MTSU W
Jan 18, 2023-24	MTSU 59 @ UTEP 73	UTEP -5.5	UTEP W
Mar 4, 2022-23	MTSU 65 @ UTEP 77	UTEP -0.5	UTEP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MTSU

11 games played

Straight up

6-5

55% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-555%

W L W L L W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

W W W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-736%

O U O O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsBEL	L 62-83	+3.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsKENN	W 68-67	-3.5	L −2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 29	@HOU	L 60-69	+25.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 2	vsLT	W 88-51	-6.5	W +30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	vsSHSU	W 68-67	-4.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−17.5

KENN

W 68-67

−2.5

HOU

L 60-69

+16.5

W 88-51

+30.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−8.5

KENN

W 68-67

−25.5

HOU

L 60-69

−9.5

W 88-51

+4.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−21.5

over 4under 7avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTEP

11 games played

Straight up

1-10

9% wins

Against the spread

3-8

27% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-109%

L L L L L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-827%

L L L L W W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

U U U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsLMU	L 58-71	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 15	@USU	L 51-75	+16.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsW&M	L 63-74	+2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsUAB	L 59-75	+8.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 7	@SEA	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 13	@HAW	L 61-66	+12.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 21	vsNORF	L 71-72	-10.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsNDSU	W 76-66	+2.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 29	@LT	L 63-75	+2.5	L −9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MOST	L 55-79	+3.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	@FIU	L 64-76	+6.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−14.5

USU

L 51-75

−7.5

W&M

L 63-74

−8.5

UAB

L 59-75

−7.5

SEA

L 68-75

+5.5

HAW

L 61-66

+7.5

NORF

L 71-72

−11.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+12.5

L 63-75

−9.5

MOST

L 55-79

−20.5

FIU

L 64-76

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 8avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−15.5

USU

L 51-75

−23.5

W&M

L 63-74

−22.5

UAB

L 59-75

−12.5

SEA

L 68-75

+6.5

HAW

L 61-66

−11.5

NORF

L 71-72

+6.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+2.5

L 63-75

+7.5

MOST

L 55-79

+2.5

FIU

L 64-76

−12.5

over 5under 6avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at UTEP Miners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

MTSU

UTEP

MTSU

UTEP