1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. UALB @ COR
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

UAlbany Great Danes at Cornell Big Red

Newman Arena · at Cornell
#301UALBUAlbany
@
#179CORCornell
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UALBThis seasonCOR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COR 83–72 · win probability COR 83%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COR has more of the edges

UALB 0, COR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CORBig
COR offense vs UALB defense
Offense 111th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), COR 72.0 (36th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, COR the 144th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CORSmall
Three-pointers
UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; COR hits 38.3% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 37.6% and 51.6% of their shots
CORSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; COR 58.5 and allows 55.9
CORSmall
Home court
COR at home. This season: COR 0-0 at home, UALB 0-0 away
CORSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, COR 16.1%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, COR 15.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, COR 53%. Transfers in: UALB 3, COR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, COR 30.2. Allowed: UALB 35.7, COR 37.2
Even
UALB offense vs COR defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 319th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, COR 30.2%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, COR 69.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COR -11.0—
Total—155.4—
Projected score—UALB 72.2 · COR 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOR -6.4—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreUALB 33.1 · COR 39.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UAlbany 1, Cornell 1, even 3
UAlbanyBetterCornell
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
Even
G J. Beccles7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 37
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
UALBSmall
G A. Nimani5.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 30
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
No call
G M. Rafiq4.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
CORSmall
F K. Sepp4.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 28
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
Even
F G. Panzini2.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9
UAlbanyBetterCornell
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Even
COR defense319th of 366 · -8.3
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
CORBig
COR offense111th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
CORBig
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
UALBSmall
Bench-1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUALB betterCOR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
Cornell
Guards
J. Beccles24 minA. Nimani18 minM. Rafiq8 minD. Fishburn8 minR. Burbach8 minE. GriffinNew
Forwards
K. Sepp19 minG. Panzini10 minI. Imegwu5 minJ. Abalos5 minT. Iwanonkiw3 minB. LecklitnerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UALBCOR
Scoring
68.7 #302Points per game85.8 #13
1.05 #259Points per possession1.20 #17
65.6 #324Pace (possessions)72.0 #36
Shooting
51.4 #182Effective FG%58.5 #7
32.6 #2483-point %38.3 #14
37.6 #2203-point attempt rate51.6 #8
24.9 #364Free throw rate30.2 #304
Possessions
18.5 #299Turnover rate16.1 #144
32.7 #99Offensive rebound rate30.2 #193
12.8 #232Assists per game20.0 #1
Defense
74.5 #176Points allowed84.6 #358
1.14 #302Points allowed per possession1.17 #343
53.2 #275Opponent effective FG%55.9 #343
36.0 #302Opponent 3-point %37.5 #349
15.8 #228Turnovers forced15.0 #287
67.6 #277Defensive rebound rate69.4 #187
6.7 #153Steals per game5.8 #263
3.9 #82Blocks per game2.8 #267
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Cornell

13-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Yale76–88
  • W@ Dartmouth111–90
  • Wvs Brown86–80
  • Wvs Yale72–69
  • Lvs Harvard54–73

A week or more of rest.