Boston University Terriers at Saint Joseph's Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena · at Saint Joseph's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Boston U and Saint Joseph's
BU	This season	JOES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JOES 79–64 · win probability JOES 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JOES has more of the edges

BU 0, JOES 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JOESBig

BU offense vs JOES defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 91st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BU has played the 296th-hardest schedule, JOES the 102nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

JOESSmall

JOES offense vs BU defense

Offense 134th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

JOESSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BU 17.7%, JOES 16.8%. Forced: BU 13.0%, JOES 15.0%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BU plays 65.2 a game (340th fastest), JOES 68.4 (208th). Faster games mean more points

JOESSmall

Home court

JOES at home. This season: JOES 0-0 at home, BU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BU 52%, JOES 40%. Transfers in: BU 1, JOES 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%; JOES hits 30.8% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 43.8% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BU 57.5 and allows 53.6; JOES 49.2 and allows 47.6

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BU 31.4, JOES 29.7. Allowed: BU 30.5, JOES 26.9

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BU 28.0%, JOES 31.4%. Defensive: BU 72.0%, JOES 69.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JOES -15.2	—
Total	—	142.5	—
Projected score	—	BU 63.6 · JOES 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JOES -8.9	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	BU 28.9 · JOES 37.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-10	—
JOES WLWWL	20-14	59%	8-6	—

Venue/role: BU away; JOES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17
JOES UUUUU	11-23	32%	22-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
JOES	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ ME	L59–69LU

Saint Joseph's

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Joseph's

34 games played

Straight up

22-12

65% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-23

32% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1265%

W W L L L W W W L W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2332%

O O U U O U U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLAF	W 85-76	-13.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsDREX	W 76-65	-9.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 12	@VT	L 59-94	+12.5	L −22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 17	@PENN	L 74-83	-5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 20	@UNLV	L 85-99	+10.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 30	vsPRIN	W 60-58	-5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 6	vsTEM	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsCOPP	W 87-65	-22.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 11	@SYR	L 63-71	+11.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsDSU	W 67-51	-17.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 22	vsCCU	L 62-68	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 130
Dec 31	@SLU	L 79-102	+19.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 3	vsDAV	L 56-62	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	vsDUQ	W 97-90	+1.5	W +8.5	149.5	O 187
Jan 11	@RICH	W 67-65	+7.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsSBU	W 68-64	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 19	@VCU	L 72-79	+14.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsDAY	W 81-74	+6.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	@LUC	W 85-64	-1.5	W +19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 31	@LAS	W 67-58	-2.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsGW	W 76-73	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	vsFOR	L 64-68	-3.5	L −7.5	135.5	U 132
Feb 18	@SBU	W 71-65	+5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsLUC	W 75-61	-9.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsGMU	W 81-63	+1.5	W +19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	@URI	W 61-55	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	@DAV	W 70-67	+1.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	vsLAS	W 88-76	-11.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsDAV	W 70-58	-2.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 14	vsVCU	L 64-77	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 18	@CSU	W 69-64	+5.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 22	@CAL	W 76-75	+5.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 24	@UNM	L 69-84	+10.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

−4.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−22.5

PENN

L 74-83

−14.5

UNLV

L 85-99

−3.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−3.5

TEM

W 70-69

+2.5

COPP

W 87-65

−0.5

SYR

L 63-71

+3.5

DSU

W 67-51

−1.5

CCU

L 62-68

−13.5

SLU

L 79-102

−3.5

DAV

L 56-62

−4.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+8.5

RICH

W 67-65

+9.5

SBU

W 68-64

+5.5

VCU

L 72-79

+7.5

DAY

W 81-74

+13.5

LUC

W 85-64

+19.5

LAS

W 67-58

+6.5

W 76-73

+4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

FOR

L 64-68

−7.5

SBU

W 71-65

+11.5

LUC

W 75-61

+4.5

GMU

W 81-63

+19.5

URI

W 61-55

+8.5

DAV

W 70-67

+4.5

LAS

W 88-76

+0.5

DAV

W 70-58

+9.5

VCU

L 64-77

−6.5

CSU

W 69-64

+10.5

CAL

W 76-75

+6.5

UNM

L 69-84

−4.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

+22.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−5.5

PENN

L 74-83

−6.5

UNLV

L 85-99

+22.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−28.5

TEM

W 70-69

−8.5

COPP

W 87-65

+5.5

SYR

L 63-71

−12.5

DSU

W 67-51

−19.5

CCU

L 62-68

−14.5

SLU

L 79-102

+19.5

DAV

L 56-62

−21.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+37.5

RICH

W 67-65

−18.5

SBU

W 68-64

−15.5

VCU

L 72-79

−0.5

DAY

W 81-74

+15.5

LUC

W 85-64

+5.5

LAS

W 67-58

−17.5

W 76-73

−6.5

GMU

L 52-60

−27.5

FOR

L 64-68

−3.5

SBU

W 71-65

−11.5

LUC

W 75-61

−6.5

GMU

W 81-63

+7.5

URI

W 61-55

−25.5

DAV

W 70-67

+0.5

LAS

W 88-76

+21.5

DAV

W 70-58

−5.5

VCU

L 64-77

−4.5

CSU

W 69-64

−11.5

CAL

W 76-75

−1.5

UNM

L 69-84

−2.5

over 11under 23avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Position by position: Boston U 0, Saint Joseph's 3, even 2

Boston UBetterSaint Joseph's

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

JOESBig

G J. Glover-Toscano15.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 80

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

Even

G A. Williford7.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 46

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Carey TR9.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 60

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

JOESBig

G K. Myers4.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 59

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

JOESBig

F S. Logan TR3.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

Boston UBetterSaint Joseph's

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

JOESBig

JOES defense91st of 366 · -0.3

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

JOESSmall

JOES offense134th of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

JOESBig

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

JOESBig

Frontcourt+0.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBU betterJOES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

Saint Joseph's

Guards

J. Glover-Toscano32 minA. Williford26 minL. Carey26 min · TRK. Myers15 minM. Johnson4 minB. Rayer1 min

Forwards

S. Logan16 min · TRW. Lange1 minG. MarrsNewL. NonfonNewD. FlamerNewK. SaccoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BU74.5 #176

JOES71.9 #245

Points per possession

BU1.14 #72

JOES1.05 #244

Pace (possessions)

BU65.2 #340

JOES68.4 #208

Shooting

Effective FG%

BU57.5 #11

JOES49.2 #284

3-point %

BU38.9 #5

JOES30.8 #325

3-point attempt rate

BU43.8 #92

JOES45.1 #65

Free throw rate

BU31.4 #270

JOES29.7 #318

Possessions

Turnover rate

BU17.7 #252

JOES16.8 #187

Offensive rebound rate

BU28.0 #269

JOES31.4 #147

Assists per game

BU14.2 #131

JOES15.1 #84

Defense

Points allowed

BU74.5 #174

JOES70.6 #68

Points allowed per possession

BU1.14 #310

JOES1.03 #59

Opponent effective FG%

BU53.6 #288

JOES47.6 #34

Opponent 3-point %

BU36.6 #330

JOES31.7 #51

Turnovers forced

BU13.0 #353

JOES15.0 #286

Defensive rebound rate

BU72.0 #65

JOES69.4 #185

Steals per game

BU4.7 #346

JOES5.5 #290

Blocks per game

BU3.3 #181

JOES4.6 #30

BU		JOES
Scoring
74.5 #176	Points per game	71.9 #245
1.14 #72	Points per possession	1.05 #244
65.2 #340	Pace (possessions)	68.4 #208
Shooting
57.5 #11	Effective FG%	49.2 #284
38.9 #5	3-point %	30.8 #325
43.8 #92	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #65
31.4 #270	Free throw rate	29.7 #318
Possessions
17.7 #252	Turnover rate	16.8 #187
28.0 #269	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #147
14.2 #131	Assists per game	15.1 #84
Defense
74.5 #174	Points allowed	70.6 #68
1.14 #310	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #59
53.6 #288	Opponent effective FG%	47.6 #34
36.6 #330	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #51
13.0 #353	Turnovers forced	15.0 #286
72.0 #65	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #185
4.7 #346	Steals per game	5.5 #290
3.3 #181	Blocks per game	4.6 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Saint Joseph's

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico69–84
W@ California76–75
W@ Colorado St69–64
Lvs VCU64–77
Wvs Davidson70–58

A week or more of rest.

Boston University Terriers at Saint Joseph's Hawks

What could decide it: JOES has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Saint Joseph's

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Boston U

Saint Joseph's