North Carolina Central Eagles at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 1:00 PM ETPaul Porter Arena · at Gardner-Webb

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC Central and Gardner-Webb
NCCU	This season	GWEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GWEB 77–72 · win probability GWEB 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCCU has more of the edges

NCCU 3, GWEB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, GWEB the 154th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NCCUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, GWEB 19.8%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, GWEB 15.3%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), GWEB 70.8 (84th). Faster games mean more points

NCCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, GWEB 30.3. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, GWEB 35.3

NCCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, GWEB 23.2%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, GWEB 63.4%

GWEBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, GWEB 35%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, GWEB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GWEBSmall

Home court

GWEB at home. This season: GWEB 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away

Even

GWEB offense vs NCCU defense

Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 33.9% and 39.8% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0

Even

NCCU offense vs GWEB defense

Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GWEB -4.7	—
Total	—	148.2	—
Projected score	—	NCCU 71.8 · GWEB 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GWEB -2.7	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	NCCU 33.3 · GWEB 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU WLWWW	15-13	54%	9-7	—
GWEB WWWWW	17-13	57%	7-3	—

Venue/role: NCCU away; GWEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OOOUU	14-14	50%	10-18
GWEB UOUUU	15-15	50%	2-28

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
GWEB	1-9 10%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC Central

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs UPST	L67–82LO
Dec 7	@ VCU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	@ DRKE	No recent meeting

Gardner-Webb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs QUC	L74–107LO
Dec 12	vs CAM	W77–73LO
Dec 15	@ WAKE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

NCCU 3–3 GWEBSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · NCCU 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	NCCU 78 @ GWEB 77	GWEB -6.5	NCCU W
Nov 8, 2024-25	GWEB 88 @ NCCU 82	NCCU -1.5	GWEB W
Dec 17, 2022-23	NCCU 70 @ GWEB 72	GWEB -5.5	NCCU W
Nov 26, 2022-23	GWEB 53 @ NCCU 58	NCCU +0.5	NCCU W
Dec 15, 2021-22	GWEB 71 @ NCCU 72	NCCU +8	NCCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

15-13

54% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L W W W L W L W L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1354%

L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L W L L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 25	@UPST	L 67-82	+7.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 3	@JMU	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNCAT	L 54-69	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	@UK	L 67-103	+42.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsLONG	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 29	@PSU	L 67-90	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsNORF	W 69-67	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@COPP	W 88-77	-6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	@MORG	W 89-78	-3.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsHOW	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 2	vsUMES	W 65-63	-2.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 128
Feb 7	@NORF	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 9	vsDSU	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	vsCOPP	L 56-58	-10.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	vsMORG	W 80-76	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	@SCST	L 72-85	-2.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@HOW	L 67-100	+12.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 167
Feb 28	@DSU	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	@UMES	W 77-73	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	O 150
Mar 5	vsSCST	L 64-80	-7.5	L −23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsUMES	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	131.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsDSU	W 59-53	-3.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 112
Mar 14	vsHOW	L 63-70	+11.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

UPST

L 67-82

−7.5

JMU

L 62-67

+9.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−12.5

L 67-103

+6.5

LONG

L 72-74

+1.5

PSU

L 67-90

+0.5

NORF

W 69-67

+3.5

COPP

W 88-77

+4.5

MORG

W 89-78

+7.5

HOW

L 69-83

−11.5

UMES

W 65-63

−0.5

NORF

L 68-75

−2.5

DSU

W 72-63

+1.5

COPP

L 56-58

−12.5

MORG

W 80-76

−1.5

SCST

L 72-85

−15.5

HOW

L 67-100

−20.5

DSU

W 74-60

+11.5

UMES

W 77-73

+6.5

SCST

L 64-80

−23.5

UMES

W 83-76

+8.5

DSU

W 59-53

+2.5

HOW

L 63-70

+4.5

covered 15didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

UPST

L 67-82

+0.5

JMU

L 62-67

−14.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−19.5

L 67-103

+21.5

LONG

L 72-74

−0.5

PSU

L 67-90

+6.5

NORF

W 69-67

−5.5

COPP

W 88-77

+21.5

MORG

W 89-78

+25.5

HOW

L 69-83

+10.5

UMES

W 65-63

−6.5

NORF

L 68-75

−5.5

DSU

W 72-63

+0.5

COPP

L 56-58

−29.5

MORG

W 80-76

+9.5

SCST

L 72-85

+20.5

HOW

L 67-100

+23.5

DSU

W 74-60

−1.5

UMES

W 77-73

+16.5

SCST

L 64-80

+3.5

UMES

W 83-76

+27.5

DSU

W 59-53

−19.5

HOW

L 63-70

−9.5

over 14under 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L W L L L L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O O U U U O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 6	vsGASO	L 84-88	+10.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 15	vsWOF	L 57-83	+10.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 21	@TENN	L 52-94	+42.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsCHSO	L 79-89	+12.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	@WIN	L 77-88	+23.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	@HPU	L 49-104	+26.5	L −28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 14	vsRAD	L 80-89	+13.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsPRES	L 55-92	+8.5	L −28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	@LONG	L 56-91	+16.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsUPST	W 67-65	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	@UNCA	L 50-69	+17.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsLONG	L 66-86	+12.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@PRES	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	vsWIN	L 85-103	+20.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 14	vsHPU	L 87-112	+25.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 17	@CHSO	L 66-75	+16.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 19	@RAD	L 70-82	+18.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 26	vsUNCA	L 71-77	+12.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	@UPST	L 61-71	+11.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsUPST	W 65-64	+10.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 6	vsHPU	L 59-81	+27.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

GASO

L 84-88

+6.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

+0.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+2.5

WIN

L 77-88

+12.5

HPU

L 49-104

−28.5

RAD

L 80-89

+4.5

PRES

L 55-92

−28.5

LONG

L 56-91

−18.5

UPST

W 67-65

+11.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−1.5

LONG

L 66-86

−7.5

PRES

L 62-68

+11.5

WIN

L 85-103

+2.5

HPU

L 87-112

+0.5

CHSO

L 66-75

+7.5

RAD

L 70-82

+6.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+6.5

UPST

L 61-71

+1.5

UPST

W 65-64

+11.5

HPU

L 59-81

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

GASO

L 84-88

+9.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

−6.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+4.5

WIN

L 77-88

+0.5

HPU

L 49-104

−9.5

RAD

L 80-89

+3.5

PRES

L 55-92

+1.5

LONG

L 56-91

−8.5

UPST

W 67-65

−21.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−30.5

LONG

L 66-86

+4.5

PRES

L 62-68

−15.5

WIN

L 85-103

+31.5

HPU

L 87-112

+37.5

CHSO

L 66-75

−20.5

RAD

L 70-82

−10.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+2.5

UPST

L 61-71

−14.5

UPST

W 65-64

−14.5

HPU

L 59-81

−15.5

over 15under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gardner-Webb has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 1, Gardner-Webb 2, even 2

NC CentralBetterGardner-Webb

G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

GWEBBig

G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62

G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6

GWEBSmall

G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32

F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

NCCUSmall

F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14

F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

NC CentralBetterGardner-Webb

NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9

Even

GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2

NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9

Even

GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players

NCCUSmall

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players

GWEBBig

Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestNCCU betterGWEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC Central

Guards

T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew

Forwards

C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew

Centers

D. MbaetekaNew

Gardner-Webb

Guards

J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew

Forwards

M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew

Centers

S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCCU67.6 #322

GWEB66.2 #343

Points per possession

NCCU1.02 #308

GWEB0.94 #360

Pace (possessions)

NCCU66.9 #282

GWEB70.8 #84

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCCU47.5 #328

GWEB47.8 #317

3-point %

NCCU32.6 #247

GWEB31.0 #320

3-point attempt rate

NCCU33.9 #299

GWEB39.8 #174

Free throw rate

NCCU39.3 #72

GWEB30.3 #302

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCCU18.2 #285

GWEB19.8 #347

Offensive rebound rate

NCCU30.0 #201

GWEB23.2 #350

Assists per game

NCCU12.1 #279

GWEB9.7 #362

Defense

Points allowed

NCCU77.3 #246

GWEB86.7 #362

Points allowed per possession

NCCU1.15 #322

GWEB1.22 #361

Opponent effective FG%

NCCU54.5 #317

GWEB57.0 #356

Opponent 3-point %

NCCU36.4 #321

GWEB36.0 #300

Turnovers forced

NCCU19.8 #27

GWEB15.3 #265

Defensive rebound rate

NCCU60.6 #364

GWEB63.4 #355

Steals per game

NCCU7.7 #60

GWEB6.1 #224

Blocks per game

NCCU3.4 #165

GWEB2.4 #309

NCCU		GWEB
Scoring
67.6 #322	Points per game	66.2 #343
1.02 #308	Points per possession	0.94 #360
66.9 #282	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #84
Shooting
47.5 #328	Effective FG%	47.8 #317
32.6 #247	3-point %	31.0 #320
33.9 #299	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #174
39.3 #72	Free throw rate	30.3 #302
Possessions
18.2 #285	Turnover rate	19.8 #347
30.0 #201	Offensive rebound rate	23.2 #350
12.1 #279	Assists per game	9.7 #362
Defense
77.3 #246	Points allowed	86.7 #362
1.15 #322	Points allowed per possession	1.22 #361
54.5 #317	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #356
36.4 #321	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #300
19.8 #27	Turnovers forced	15.3 #265
60.6 #364	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #355
7.7 #60	Steals per game	6.1 #224
3.4 #165	Blocks per game	2.4 #309

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard63–70
Wvs Delaware St59–53
Wvs MD Eastern83–76
Lvs SC State64–80
W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point59–81
Wvs SC Upstate65–64
L@ SC Upstate61–71
Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina Central Eagles at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

What could decide it: NCCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC Central

Gardner-Webb