Queens University Royals at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETPaul Porter Arena · at Gardner-Webb

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Queens University Royals and Gardner-Webb
QUC	This season	GWEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects QUC 85–75 · win probability QUC 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 160.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: QUC has more of the edges

QUC 5, GWEB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

QUCBig

QUC offense vs GWEB defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings

QUCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6; GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0

QUCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: QUC 14.8%, GWEB 19.8%. Forced: QUC 15.1%, GWEB 15.3%

QUCBig

Three-pointers

QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%; GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 39.8% of their shots

QUCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: QUC 30.2%, GWEB 23.2%. Defensive: QUC 66.4%, GWEB 63.4%

GWEBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: QUC 0%, GWEB 35%. Transfers in: QUC 0, GWEB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GWEBSmall

Home court

GWEB at home. This season: GWEB 0-0 at home, QUC 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

QUC has played the 194th-hardest schedule, GWEB the 154th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: QUC 35.4, GWEB 30.3. Allowed: QUC 38.1, GWEB 35.3

Even

GWEB offense vs QUC defense

Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: QUC plays 71.2 a game (65th fastest), GWEB 70.8 (84th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	QUC -10.3	—
Total	—	160.0	—
Projected score	—	QUC 85.1 · GWEB 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUC -6.2	—
1H total	74.7	—
1H projected score	QUC 40.5 · GWEB 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	5-11	—
GWEB WWWWW	17-13	57%	7-3	—

Venue/role: QUC away; GWEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14
GWEB UOUUU	15-15	50%	2-28

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
GWEB	1-9 10%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ CSU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ BAY	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ SHU	W81–64WU

Gardner-Webb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs CAM	W77–73LO
Dec 15	@ WAKE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

QUC 3–0 GWEBQUC leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · QUC has won the last 3 meetings · QUC 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	GWEB 74 @ QUC 107	QUC -14.5	QUC W
Dec 14, 2024-25	QUC 85 @ GWEB 83	GWEB -6.5	QUC W
Nov 29, 2023-24	GWEB 80 @ QUC 83	QUC +3	QUC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L W L L L L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O O U U U O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 6	vsGASO	L 84-88	+10.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 15	vsWOF	L 57-83	+10.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 21	@TENN	L 52-94	+42.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsCHSO	L 79-89	+12.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	@WIN	L 77-88	+23.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	@HPU	L 49-104	+26.5	L −28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 14	vsRAD	L 80-89	+13.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsPRES	L 55-92	+8.5	L −28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	@LONG	L 56-91	+16.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsUPST	W 67-65	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	@UNCA	L 50-69	+17.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsLONG	L 66-86	+12.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@PRES	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	vsWIN	L 85-103	+20.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 14	vsHPU	L 87-112	+25.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 17	@CHSO	L 66-75	+16.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 19	@RAD	L 70-82	+18.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 26	vsUNCA	L 71-77	+12.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	@UPST	L 61-71	+11.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsUPST	W 65-64	+10.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 6	vsHPU	L 59-81	+27.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

GASO

L 84-88

+6.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

+0.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+2.5

WIN

L 77-88

+12.5

HPU

L 49-104

−28.5

RAD

L 80-89

+4.5

PRES

L 55-92

−28.5

LONG

L 56-91

−18.5

UPST

W 67-65

+11.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−1.5

LONG

L 66-86

−7.5

PRES

L 62-68

+11.5

WIN

L 85-103

+2.5

HPU

L 87-112

+0.5

CHSO

L 66-75

+7.5

RAD

L 70-82

+6.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+6.5

UPST

L 61-71

+1.5

UPST

W 65-64

+11.5

HPU

L 59-81

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

GASO

L 84-88

+9.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

−6.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+4.5

WIN

L 77-88

+0.5

HPU

L 49-104

−9.5

RAD

L 80-89

+3.5

PRES

L 55-92

+1.5

LONG

L 56-91

−8.5

UPST

W 67-65

−21.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−30.5

LONG

L 66-86

+4.5

PRES

L 62-68

−15.5

WIN

L 85-103

+31.5

HPU

L 87-112

+37.5

CHSO

L 66-75

−20.5

RAD

L 70-82

−10.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+2.5

UPST

L 61-71

−14.5

UPST

W 65-64

−14.5

HPU

L 59-81

−15.5

over 15under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

QUC84.4 #16

GWEB66.2 #343

Points per possession

QUC1.19 #25

GWEB0.94 #360

Pace (possessions)

QUC71.2 #65

GWEB70.8 #84

Shooting

Effective FG%

QUC56.4 #15

GWEB47.8 #317

3-point %

QUC35.7 #74

GWEB31.0 #320

3-point attempt rate

QUC46.5 #38

GWEB39.8 #174

Free throw rate

QUC35.4 #167

GWEB30.3 #302

Possessions

Turnover rate

QUC14.8 #54

GWEB19.8 #347

Offensive rebound rate

QUC30.2 #190

GWEB23.2 #350

Assists per game

QUC16.0 #49

GWEB9.7 #362

Defense

Points allowed

QUC83.8 #355

GWEB86.7 #362

Points allowed per possession

QUC1.17 #346

GWEB1.22 #361

Opponent effective FG%

QUC54.6 #319

GWEB57.0 #356

Opponent 3-point %

QUC36.5 #325

GWEB36.0 #300

Turnovers forced

QUC15.1 #276

GWEB15.3 #265

Defensive rebound rate

QUC66.4 #308

GWEB63.4 #355

Steals per game

QUC6.0 #238

GWEB6.1 #224

Blocks per game

QUC2.9 #236

GWEB2.4 #309

QUC		GWEB
Scoring
84.4 #16	Points per game	66.2 #343
1.19 #25	Points per possession	0.94 #360
71.2 #65	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #84
Shooting
56.4 #15	Effective FG%	47.8 #317
35.7 #74	3-point %	31.0 #320
46.5 #38	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #174
35.4 #167	Free throw rate	30.3 #302
Possessions
14.8 #54	Turnover rate	19.8 #347
30.2 #190	Offensive rebound rate	23.2 #350
16.0 #49	Assists per game	9.7 #362
Defense
83.8 #355	Points allowed	86.7 #362
1.17 #346	Points allowed per possession	1.22 #361
54.6 #319	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #356
36.5 #325	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #300
15.1 #276	Turnovers forced	15.3 #265
66.4 #308	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #355
6.0 #238	Steals per game	6.1 #224
2.9 #236	Blocks per game	2.4 #309

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point59–81
Wvs SC Upstate65–64
L@ SC Upstate61–71
Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

What could decide it: QUC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Gardner-Webb

Matchup stats

Queens University Royals

Gardner-Webb