Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETWorthen Arena · at Ball State · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Michigan and Ball State
EMU	This season	BALL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BALL 72–69 · win probability BALL 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

EMU 3, BALL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BALLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EMU 17.5%, BALL 16.2%. Forced: EMU 15.5%, BALL 18.7%

EMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: EMU 49.6 and allows 50.3; BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7

EMUSmall

Three-pointers

EMU hits 32.4% and allows 32.9%; BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 31.8% and 39.4% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

EMU has played the 157th-hardest schedule, BALL the 236th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BALLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: EMU 29.3, BALL 31.6. Allowed: EMU 35.5, BALL 32.1

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: EMU plays 68.9 a game (190th fastest), BALL 65.9 (317th). Faster games mean more points

EMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EMU 27.8%, BALL 27.1%. Defensive: EMU 70.9%, BALL 69.0%

BALLSmall

Home court

BALL at home. This season: BALL 0-0 at home, EMU 0-0 away

BALLSmall

EMU offense vs BALL defense

Offense 206th of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings

Even

BALL offense vs EMU defense

Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 188th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EMU 37%, BALL 25%. Transfers in: EMU 4, BALL 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BALL -2.9	—
Total	—	141.6	—
Projected score	—	EMU 69.3 · BALL 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -1.6	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	EMU 32.3 · BALL 33.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLLWL	20-10	67%	11-6	—
BALL WWWWW	14-15	48%	7-5	—

Venue/role: EMU away; BALL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UOUUO	9-21	30%	9-21
BALL UOUOO	9-20	31%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	1-9 10%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
BALL	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ TOL	L75–94LO
Dec 12	vs CMU	W66–54WU

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs EVAN	L52–64LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

EMU 3–5 BALLBALL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · EMU 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 6, 2025-26	EMU 74 @ BALL 52	BALL -1.5	EMU W
Feb 11, 2024-25	EMU 84 @ BALL 86	BALL -4.5	EMU W
Feb 24, 2023-24	EMU 58 @ BALL 56	BALL -10.5	EMU W
Jan 16, 2023-24	BALL 76 @ EMU 62	EMU +1.5	BALL W
Feb 25, 2022-23	BALL 68 @ EMU 75	EMU +7.5	EMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Michigan

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

W L L W W L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1067%

W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O U U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGAST	W 71-49	-3.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 10	@PITT	L 66-78	+15.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 14	vsIUIN	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@DETM	W 72-62	+1.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	vsOAK	W 97-91	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	@LOU	L 46-87	+33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 133
Nov 26	@CIN	W 64-56	+22.5	W +30.5	146.5	U 120
Nov 28	vsNJIT	W 73-55	-14.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 2	@BTLR	L 68-84	+17.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 10	@PFW	L 65-80	+3.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 19	@AKR	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 165
Dec 22	@WRST	L 64-70	+10.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 30	vsMASS	W 80-74	+2.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsOHIO	L 67-68	+2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	@BALL	W 74-52	+1.5	W +23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@WMU	L 62-79	-1.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsNIU	W 77-59	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	@BGSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsKENT	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 27	@CMU	L 65-100	-2.5	L −37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	@MASS	L 67-70	+8.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsAKR	L 64-66	+12.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 130
Feb 7	@APP	L 60-65	+7.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 125
Feb 11	@KENT	L 91-95	+10.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 186
Feb 14	vsWMU	L 62-76	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsCMU	W 66-54	-4.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	@TOL	L 75-94	+8.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsM-OH	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@BUF	L 67-72	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 6	vsBGSU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

+18.5

PITT

L 66-78

+3.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−11.5

DETM

W 72-62

+11.5

OAK

W 97-91

+7.5

LOU

L 46-87

−7.5

CIN

W 64-56

+30.5

NJIT

W 73-55

+3.5

BTLR

L 68-84

+1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−11.5

AKR

L 72-93

−5.5

WRST

L 64-70

+4.5

MASS

W 80-74

+8.5

OHIO

L 67-68

+1.5

BALL

W 74-52

+23.5

WMU

L 62-79

−18.5

NIU

W 77-59

+10.5

BGSU

L 79-85

+5.5

KENT

L 75-76

+3.5

CMU

L 65-100

−37.5

MASS

L 67-70

+5.5

AKR

L 64-66

+10.5

APP

L 60-65

+2.5

KENT

L 91-95

+6.5

WMU

L 62-76

−20.5

CMU

W 66-54

+7.5

TOL

L 75-94

−10.5

M-OH

L 64-74

−1.5

BUF

L 67-72

+0.5

BGSU

L 69-77

−2.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

−29.5

PITT

L 66-78

+2.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−13.5

DETM

W 72-62

−23.5

OAK

W 97-91

+34.5

LOU

L 46-87

−29.5

CIN

W 64-56

−26.5

NJIT

W 73-55

−13.5

BTLR

L 68-84

−1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−2.5

AKR

L 72-93

+9.5

WRST

L 64-70

−8.5

MASS

W 80-74

+5.5

OHIO

L 67-68

−15.5

BALL

W 74-52

−11.5

WMU

L 62-79

−4.5

NIU

W 77-59

−5.5

BGSU

L 79-85

+22.5

KENT

L 75-76

−3.5

CMU

L 65-100

+25.5

MASS

L 67-70

−11.5

AKR

L 64-66

−23.5

APP

L 60-65

−6.5

KENT

L 91-95

+40.5

WMU

L 62-76

−5.5

CMU

W 66-54

−20.5

TOL

L 75-94

+23.5

M-OH

L 64-74

−13.5

BUF

L 67-72

−4.5

BGSU

L 69-77

+3.5

over 9under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-20

31% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

W L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L L L L L W L W W L L L W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2031%

U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 14	@CAM	L 64-69	+8.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+7.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUF	L 72-85	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 6	vsEMU	L 52-74	-1.5	L −23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@MASS	L 71-79	+10.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 13	@AKR	L 77-87	+20.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 16	vsOHIO	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	@CMU	W 68-67	-1.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIU	W 58-53	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 31	@TOL	L 55-73	+8.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	@BGSU	L 52-77	+11.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ULM	W 73-68	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	vsBUF	L 53-63	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 14	vsKENT	L 68-75	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@OHIO	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 20	vsAKR	L 65-78	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsMASS	W 74-73	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 147
Feb 28	@NIU	W 79-43	+1.5	W +37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	@WMU	W 74-71	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	vsCMU	W 85-69	-2.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

CAM

L 64-69

+3.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−1.5

BUF

L 72-85

−6.5

EMU

L 52-74

−23.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+10.5

OHIO

W 76-71

+10.5

CMU

W 68-67

−0.5

NIU

W 58-53

−0.5

TOL

L 55-73

−9.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−13.5

ULM

W 73-68

+0.5

BUF

L 53-63

−11.5

KENT

L 68-75

+0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−2.5

AKR

L 65-78

+0.5

MASS

W 74-73

+4.5

NIU

W 79-43

+37.5

WMU

W 74-71

+4.5

CMU

W 85-69

+13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

CAM

L 64-69

−12.5

M-OH

L 77-86

+15.5

BUF

L 72-85

+11.5

EMU

L 52-74

−11.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+11.5

OHIO

W 76-71

−0.5

CMU

W 68-67

−7.5

NIU

W 58-53

−30.5

TOL

L 55-73

−18.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−8.5

ULM

W 73-68

−2.5

BUF

L 53-63

−25.5

KENT

L 68-75

−0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−19.5

AKR

L 65-78

−4.5

MASS

W 74-73

+3.5

NIU

W 79-43

−11.5

WMU

W 74-71

+6.5

CMU

W 85-69

+19.5

over 9under 20avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State has the better starters

Position by position: E Michigan 1, Ball State 2, even 2

E MichiganBetterBall State

G J. Fitzpatrick TR15.4 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 75

Even

G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73

G E. Richards TR9.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 32

BALLSmall

G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53

G B. Green4.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 9

BALLBig

G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50

F M. Habhab14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 64

Even

G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F K. Brockhoff TR10.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 44

EMUBig

F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9

E MichiganBetterBall State

EMU offense206th of 366 · -6.3

Even

BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5

EMU defense188th of 366 · -4.4

Even

BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

BALLBig

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.1 · 2 players

EMUBig

Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.3 · 2 players

EMUSmall

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEMU betterBALL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Michigan

Guards

J. Fitzpatrick36 min · TRE. Richards27 min · TRB. Green20 minG. Lawson18 minS. Harris17 min · TRD. PorterNew

Forwards

M. Habhab36 minK. Brockhoff22 min · TRK. JohnsonNewJ. WrightNewO. SuleimanNew

Ball State

Guards

Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR

Forwards

M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew

Centers

J. Smith9 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EMU70.2 #282

BALL66.1 #345

Points per possession

EMU1.02 #298

BALL1.00 #325

Pace (possessions)

EMU68.9 #190

BALL65.9 #317

Shooting

Effective FG%

EMU49.6 #264

BALL47.0 #336

3-point %

EMU32.4 #259

BALL31.4 #312

3-point attempt rate

EMU31.8 #332

BALL39.4 #186

Free throw rate

EMU29.3 #325

BALL31.6 #263

Possessions

Turnover rate

EMU17.5 #235

BALL16.2 #151

Offensive rebound rate

EMU27.8 #273

BALL27.1 #290

Assists per game

EMU12.4 #261

BALL12.4 #259

Defense

Points allowed

EMU74.4 #169

BALL71.4 #88

Points allowed per possession

EMU1.07 #142

BALL1.09 #184

Opponent effective FG%

EMU50.3 #115

BALL52.7 #253

Opponent 3-point %

EMU32.9 #111

BALL34.8 #239

Turnovers forced

EMU15.5 #249

BALL18.7 #60

Defensive rebound rate

EMU70.9 #109

BALL69.0 #204

Steals per game

EMU5.7 #269

BALL7.5 #88

Blocks per game

EMU4.1 #61

BALL2.7 #286

EMU		BALL
Scoring
70.2 #282	Points per game	66.1 #345
1.02 #298	Points per possession	1.00 #325
68.9 #190	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #317
Shooting
49.6 #264	Effective FG%	47.0 #336
32.4 #259	3-point %	31.4 #312
31.8 #332	3-point attempt rate	39.4 #186
29.3 #325	Free throw rate	31.6 #263
Possessions
17.5 #235	Turnover rate	16.2 #151
27.8 #273	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #290
12.4 #261	Assists per game	12.4 #259
Defense
74.4 #169	Points allowed	71.4 #88
1.07 #142	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #184
50.3 #115	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #253
32.9 #111	Opponent 3-point %	34.8 #239
15.5 #249	Turnovers forced	18.7 #60
70.9 #109	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #204
5.7 #269	Steals per game	7.5 #88
4.1 #61	Blocks per game	2.7 #286

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Michigan

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bowling Green69–77
L@ Buffalo67–72
Lvs Miami OH64–74
L@ Toledo75–94
Wvs C Michigan66–54

A week or more of rest.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs C Michigan85–69
W@ W Michigan74–71
W@ N Illinois79–43
Wvs UMass74–73
Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ball State Cardinals

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Michigan

Ball State

Ball State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Michigan

Ball State