Worthen Arena · at Ball State · Conference game
Closing line
AKR -13.5✓ BALL covered by 0.5
AKR -13.5✓ BALL covered by 0.5Closing total147.5Under by 4.5
| AKR | This season | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| 19-5 | Record | 6-18 |
| 13-11 | ATS | 9-15 |
| 13-11 | O/U | 6-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AKR 81–67 BALL · ✓ AKR (88%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 40 | 38 | 78 |
| BALL | 36 | 29 | 65 |
1st half: AKR 40, BALL 36 (AKR by 4). The model had AKR by 8.3 and a total of 69.5 (actual 76).
Team stats
| AKR | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-64 45% | Field goals | 23-58 40% |
| 9-29 31% | 3-pointers | 13-28 46% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 6-9 67% |
| 40 13 off | Rebounds | 35 10 off |
| 17 | Assists | 13 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari Johnson G | 34 | 25 | 6 | 6 | 9-20 | 2-8 |
| Amani Lyles F | 34 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 9-16 | 4-7 |
| Evan Mahaffey F | 26 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Zach Halligan F | 17 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Eric Mahaffey G | 26 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Shammah Scott G | 23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-6 |
| Sharron Young G | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chabi Barre F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cody Head, Rich Brisco, Conner Groce, Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson, Ognjen Stankovic
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni Zeigler G | 37 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-15 | 2-8 |
| Davion Hill G | 32 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 6-12 | 4-4 |
| Preston Copeland F | 30 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Mason Jones F | 29 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Elmore James IV G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devon Barnes G | 23 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-5 |
| Cam Denson F | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Kayden Fish F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Juwan Maxey G | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
Did not play: Zane Doughty, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Kody Clancy, Easton Foster, Joey Hart, Alex Farley
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAKR -13.5
ModelAKR -13.7
Model edgeAKR +0.2
L BALL covered
Total
Market147.5
Model148.5
Model edgeOver 1.0
L Under
Projected score
AKR 81.1 · BALL 67.4
AKR 78 · BALL 65
Win probability
AKR 88%
1st half
Spread
AKR -8.3
AKR -4.0
Total
69.5
76 points
Projected score
AKR 38.9 · BALL 30.6
AKR 40 · BALL 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -13.5
no move
CloseAKR -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open146.5
▲ 1
Close147.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
AKR -1350 · BALL +800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -13.5 · unchangedmodel AKR -13.5 matches the line
model AKR -13.5 = line ✓
Opened 146.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 upmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| BALL | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 1-9 10% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
AKR 7–1 BALLAKR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · AKR has won the last 5 meetings · AKR 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | BALL 77 @ AKR 87 | AKR -20.5 | BALL W |
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | AKR 87 @ BALL 82 | BALL +6.5 | BALL W |
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | BALL 73 @ AKR 81 | AKR -13.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | AKR 80 @ BALL 76 | BALL +7.5 | BALL W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | BALL 83 @ AKR 87 | AKR -9.5 | BALL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Akron
24 games played
Straight up
19-5
79% wins
Against the spread
13-11
54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vs BUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs MUR | L 100-115 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 19 | vs EMU | W 93-72 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | @ M-OH | L 73-76 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vs CMU | W 82-69 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 9 | @ BGSU | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 13 | vsBALL | W 87-77 | -20.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | vs WMU | W 104-89 | -21.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 20 | @ BUF | W 82-63 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | @ OHIO | W 86-65 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | vs TOL | W 91-81 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 30 | vs KENT | W 69-52 | -10.5 | W +6.5 | 166.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 3 | @EMU | W 66-64 | -12.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 7 | @ TROY | L 69-79 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 13 | vs MASS | W 99-92 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 191 |
| Feb 17 | @WMU | W 90-73 | -14.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
−19.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+5.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−7.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−10.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
+5.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
−10.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
−6.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
+10.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
+14.5
27
vsTOL
TOLW 91-81
−2.5
30
vsKENT
KENTW 69-52
+6.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 66-64
−10.5
7
@TROY
TROYL 69-79
−12.5
13
vsMASS
MASSW 99-92
−5.5
17
@WMU
WMUW 90-73
+2.5
covered 13didn’t cover 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
+46.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+9.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−28.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−13.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
−19.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
+11.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
+29.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
−21.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
−16.5
27
vsTOL
TOLW 91-81
+3.5
30
vsKENT
KENTW 69-52
−45.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 66-64
−23.5
7
@TROY
TROYL 69-79
−9.5
13
vsMASS
MASSW 99-92
+27.5
17
@WMU
WMUW 90-73
+2.5
over 13under 11avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ball State
24 games played
Straight up
6-18
25% wins
Against the spread
9-15
38% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-18
25% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ WIS | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs LR | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ INST | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs MONM | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ LAF | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs LEM | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @EVAN | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs SDST | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ CAM | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vsM-OH | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @BUF | L 72-85 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 6 | vsEMU | L 52-74 | -1.5 | L −23.5 | 137.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 10 | @MASS | L 71-79 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @AKR | L 77-87 | +20.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 16 | vsOHIO | W 76-71 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | @CMU | W 68-67 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | vs NIU | W 58-53 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 31 | @TOL | L 55-73 | +8.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | @BGSU | L 52-77 | +11.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 7 | @ ULM | W 73-68 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 11 | vsBUF | L 53-63 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 14 | vsKENT | L 68-75 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 17 | @OHIO | L 57-69 | +9.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−4.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−8.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−10.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
−4.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−19.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+12.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−5.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
+1.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
+3.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−1.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
−6.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−23.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+10.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
+10.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−0.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−0.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−9.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−13.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
+0.5
11
vsBUF
BUFL 53-63
−11.5
14
vsKENT
KENTL 68-75
+0.5
17
@OHIO
OHIOL 57-69
−2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−15.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−16.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−32.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
+16.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−48.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+40.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−20.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
−10.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
−12.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
+15.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
+11.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−11.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+11.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
−0.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−7.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−30.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−18.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−8.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
−2.5
11
vsBUF
BUFL 53-63
−25.5
14
vsKENT
KENTL 68-75
−0.5
17
@OHIO
OHIOL 57-69
−19.5
over 6under 18avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Akron
19-5 overall · 12-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ W Michigan90–73
- Wvs UMass99–92
- L@ Troy69–79
- W@ E Michigan66–64
- Wvs Kent State69–52
3 days since their last game.
Ball State
6-18 overall · 3-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Ohio57–69
- Lvs Kent State68–75
- Lvs Buffalo53–63
- W@ UL Monroe73–68
- L@ Bowling Green52–77
3 days since their last game.