Nebraska Cornhuskers at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nebraska and Creighton
NEB	This season	CREI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 76–75 · win probability NEB 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

NEB 3, CREI 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEBBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NEB 14.5%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: NEB 18.9%, CREI 13.7%

NEBBig

Three-pointers

NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 51.1% and 48.2% of their shots

NEBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1

CREISmall

Home court

CREI at home. This season: CREI 0-0 at home, NEB 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NEB plays 67.3 a game (267th fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NEB 26.7%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: NEB 72.6%, CREI 70.5%

Context

Schedule so far

NEB has played the 59th-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

CREI offense vs NEB defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NEB 48%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: NEB 6, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NEB 26.2, CREI 28.3. Allowed: NEB 25.1, CREI 24.8

Even

NEB offense vs CREI defense

Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEB -1.3	—
Total	—	151.4	—
Projected score	—	NEB 76.3 · CREI 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -0.9	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	NEB 35.8 · CREI 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WLWWL	19-16	54%	7-3	—
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	4-12	—

Venue/role: NEB away; CREI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OUUUO	11-24	31%	28-7
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ PSU	W87–64WO
Dec 12	vs MIZ	No recent meeting

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs GONZ	L63–90LU
Dec 15	vs MSM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NEB 3–2 CREINEB leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings · NEB 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2025-26	CREI 50 @ NEB 71	NEB -5.5	NEB W
Nov 22, 2024-25	NEB 74 @ CREI 63	CREI -9.5	NEB W
Dec 3, 2023-24	CREI 89 @ NEB 60	NEB +4.5	CREI W
Dec 4, 2022-23	NEB 63 @ CREI 53	CREI -14.5	NEB W
Nov 16, 2021-22	CREI 77 @ NEB 69	NEB -3.5	CREI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nebraska

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 26	vsIOWA	L 71-77	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

IOWA

L 71-77

−7.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

IOWA

L 71-77

+16.5

over 11under 24avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nebraska 1, Creighton 1, even 3

NebraskaBetterCreighton

G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

Even

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97

NEBSmall

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

CREISmall

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86

Even

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93

Even

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

NebraskaBetterCreighton

NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6

Even

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1

Even

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player

CREISmall

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players

NEBBig

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

Bench+1.7 · 5 players

CREIBig

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNEB betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nebraska

Guards

T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew

Forwards

P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NEB77.0 #116

CREI75.2 #159

Points per possession

NEB1.15 #61

CREI1.09 #156

Pace (possessions)

NEB67.3 #267

CREI68.9 #187

Shooting

Effective FG%

NEB55.5 #28

CREI53.0 #103

3-point %

NEB35.5 #91

CREI34.1 #167

3-point attempt rate

NEB51.1 #9

CREI48.2 #23

Free throw rate

NEB26.2 #356

CREI28.3 #340

Possessions

Turnover rate

NEB14.5 #44

CREI16.4 #161

Offensive rebound rate

NEB26.7 #306

CREI26.9 #301

Assists per game

NEB18.0 #10

CREI15.4 #72

Defense

Points allowed

NEB66.1 #14

CREI75.2 #196

Points allowed per possession

NEB0.98 #13

CREI1.09 #197

Opponent effective FG%

NEB48.1 #40

CREI51.1 #165

Opponent 3-point %

NEB30.5 #19

CREI35.1 #256

Turnovers forced

NEB18.9 #54

CREI13.7 #341

Defensive rebound rate

NEB72.6 #47

CREI70.5 #132

Steals per game

NEB7.1 #112

CREI5.7 #278

Blocks per game

NEB2.5 #303

CREI2.8 #255

NEB		CREI
Scoring
77.0 #116	Points per game	75.2 #159
1.15 #61	Points per possession	1.09 #156
67.3 #267	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #187
Shooting
55.5 #28	Effective FG%	53.0 #103
35.5 #91	3-point %	34.1 #167
51.1 #9	3-point attempt rate	48.2 #23
26.2 #356	Free throw rate	28.3 #340
Possessions
14.5 #44	Turnover rate	16.4 #161
26.7 #306	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #301
18.0 #10	Assists per game	15.4 #72
Defense
66.1 #14	Points allowed	75.2 #196
0.98 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #197
48.1 #40	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #165
30.5 #19	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #256
18.9 #54	Turnovers forced	13.7 #341
72.6 #47	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #132
7.1 #112	Steals per game	5.7 #278
2.5 #303	Blocks per game	2.8 #255

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa71–77
Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
Wvs Troy76–47
Lvs Purdue58–74
Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Creighton Bluejays

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nebraska

Creighton

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nebraska

Creighton