Omaha Mavericks at Lindenwood Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETHyland Arena · at Lindenwood Lions

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Omaha and Lindenwood Lions
OMA	This season	LIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIN 78–73 · win probability LIN 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

OMA 1, LIN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: OMA plays 68.9 a game (184th fastest), LIN 73.0 (18th). Faster games mean more points

OMASmall

Three-pointers

OMA hits 34.0% and allows 32.9%; LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 40.9% and 30.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

OMA has played the 287th-hardest schedule, LIN the 357th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LINSmall

LIN offense vs OMA defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 306th, on the model’s ratings

LINSmall

Home court

LIN at home. This season: LIN 0-0 at home, OMA 0-0 away

LINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OMA 16.1%, LIN 18.7%. Forced: OMA 14.1%, LIN 18.4%

LINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OMA 25.5%, LIN 33.3%. Defensive: OMA 71.3%, LIN 68.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OMA 23%, LIN 0%. Transfers in: OMA 4, LIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

OMA offense vs LIN defense

Offense 247th of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OMA 52.2 and allows 52.7; LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OMA 34.5, LIN 38.6. Allowed: OMA 33.6, LIN 37.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LIN -5.1	—
Total	—	150.5	—
Projected score	—	OMA 72.7 · LIN 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIN -2.9	—
1H total	70.4	—
1H projected score	OMA 33.7 · LIN 36.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OMA WLLWL	14-15	48%	7-8	—
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	4-7	—

Venue/role: OMA away; LIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OMA UOUUU	14-15	48%	12-17
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OMA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Omaha

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ TTU	L58–87LO
Dec 15	vs SHSU	No recent meeting

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs NIU	W99–64WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

OMA 0–1 LINLIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · OMA 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2023-24	LIN 72 vs OMA 70	OMA -9.5	LIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Omaha

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L L W L L L L W W L L L W L W L W W W L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L L L L L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U O O O O U U U O U O U O O U U U O O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsJMU	L 77-88	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FIU	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsUNCO	L 70-75	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 145
Dec 6	@PRST	W 60-55	+12.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 115
Dec 20	@LAM	W 85-82	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 167
Dec 28	@ORE	L 57-80	+21.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 1	@SDST	L 69-84	+9.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsKC	L 66-73	-8.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUND	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsNDSU	L 76-78	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ORU	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsSDAK	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	@KC	W 77-60	-4.5	W +12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsSDST	W 80-71	+1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 31	@DEN	W 84-82	+1.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 166
Feb 5	@UND	L 73-76	+1.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 149
Feb 7	@NDSU	L 84-92	+9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 12	vsSTMN	W 98-94	+4.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 15	vsDEN	W 83-76	-2.5	W +4.5	160.5	U 159
Feb 18	vsORU	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 25	@SDAK	L 72-89	+1.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 28	@STMN	L 53-68	+11.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 6	vsSDAK	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 138
Mar 7	vsNDSU	L 50-74	+8.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

JMU

L 77-88

−9.5

FIU

L 61-74

−8.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−1.5

PRST

W 60-55

+17.5

LAM

W 85-82

+8.5

ORE

L 57-80

−1.5

SDST

L 69-84

−5.5

L 66-73

−15.5

UND

W 90-79

+5.5

NDSU

L 76-78

+3.5

ORU

W 73-62

+12.5

SDAK

L 64-68

−10.5

W 77-60

+12.5

SDST

W 80-71

+10.5

DEN

W 84-82

+3.5

UND

L 73-76

−1.5

NDSU

L 84-92

+1.5

STMN

W 98-94

+8.5

DEN

W 83-76

+4.5

ORU

W 80-71

+2.5

SDAK

L 72-89

−15.5

STMN

L 53-68

−3.5

SDAK

W 76-62

+12.5

NDSU

L 50-74

−15.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

JMU

L 77-88

+12.5

FIU

L 61-74

−22.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−12.5

PRST

W 60-55

−29.5

LAM

W 85-82

+25.5

ORE

L 57-80

−14.5

SDST

L 69-84

+0.5

L 66-73

−9.5

UND

W 90-79

+22.5

NDSU

L 76-78

+6.5

ORU

W 73-62

−14.5

SDAK

L 64-68

−28.5

W 77-60

−11.5

SDST

W 80-71

+0.5

DEN

W 84-82

+7.5

UND

L 73-76

−1.5

NDSU

L 84-92

+29.5

STMN

W 98-94

+35.5

DEN

W 83-76

−1.5

ORU

W 80-71

−0.5

SDAK

L 72-89

+8.5

STMN

L 53-68

−37.5

SDAK

W 76-62

−12.5

NDSU

L 50-74

−22.5

over 14under 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OMA73.9 #202

LIN74.4 #183

Points per possession

OMA1.07 #201

LIN1.02 #307

Pace (possessions)

OMA68.9 #184

LIN73.0 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

OMA52.2 #139

LIN48.0 #313

3-point %

OMA34.0 #169

LIN29.4 #347

3-point attempt rate

OMA40.9 #150

LIN30.7 #346

Free throw rate

OMA34.5 #196

LIN38.6 #88

Possessions

Turnover rate

OMA16.1 #146

LIN18.7 #307

Offensive rebound rate

OMA25.5 #331

LIN33.3 #83

Assists per game

OMA12.1 #276

LIN13.0 #212

Defense

Points allowed

OMA77.7 #259

LIN75.0 #190

Points allowed per possession

OMA1.13 #278

LIN1.03 #52

Opponent effective FG%

OMA52.7 #258

LIN49.1 #72

Opponent 3-point %

OMA32.9 #114

LIN32.4 #84

Turnovers forced

OMA14.1 #333

LIN18.4 #78

Defensive rebound rate

OMA71.3 #90

LIN68.3 #244

Steals per game

OMA5.7 #277

LIN8.4 #24

Blocks per game

OMA3.0 #234

LIN4.4 #46

OMA		LIN
Scoring
73.9 #202	Points per game	74.4 #183
1.07 #201	Points per possession	1.02 #307
68.9 #184	Pace (possessions)	73.0 #18
Shooting
52.2 #139	Effective FG%	48.0 #313
34.0 #169	3-point %	29.4 #347
40.9 #150	3-point attempt rate	30.7 #346
34.5 #196	Free throw rate	38.6 #88
Possessions
16.1 #146	Turnover rate	18.7 #307
25.5 #331	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #83
12.1 #276	Assists per game	13.0 #212
Defense
77.7 #259	Points allowed	75.0 #190
1.13 #278	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #52
52.7 #258	Opponent effective FG%	49.1 #72
32.9 #114	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #84
14.1 #333	Turnovers forced	18.4 #78
71.3 #90	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #244
5.7 #277	Steals per game	8.4 #24
3.0 #234	Blocks per game	4.4 #46

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Omaha

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Dakota St50–74
Wvs South Dakota76–62
L@ St Thomas53–68
L@ South Dakota72–89
Wvs Oral Roberts80–71

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

Omaha Mavericks at Lindenwood Lions

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Omaha

Lindenwood Lions

Matchup stats

Omaha

Lindenwood Lions