Evansville Purple Aces at Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETWorthen Arena · at Ball State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Evansville and Ball State
EVAN	This season	BALL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BALL 74–68 · win probability BALL 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

EVAN 0, BALL 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BALLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EVAN 19.1%, BALL 16.2%. Forced: EVAN 15.4%, BALL 18.7%

BALLBig

EVAN offense vs BALL defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EVAN has played the 127th-hardest schedule, BALL the 236th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BALLSmall

Home court

BALL at home. This season: BALL 0-0 at home, EVAN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: EVAN plays 67.9 a game (232nd fastest), BALL 65.9 (317th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%; BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 43.1% and 39.4% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: EVAN 29.8, BALL 31.6. Allowed: EVAN 31.4, BALL 32.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EVAN 35%, BALL 25%. Transfers in: EVAN 2, BALL 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EVAN 22.0%, BALL 27.1%. Defensive: EVAN 69.8%, BALL 69.0%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1; BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7

Even

BALL offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BALL -6.7	—
Total	—	141.9	—
Projected score	—	EVAN 67.6 · BALL 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -3.9	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	EVAN 31.3 · BALL 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	7-6	—
BALL WWWWW	14-15	48%	7-5	—

Venue/role: EVAN away; BALL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25
BALL UOUOO	9-20	31%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
BALL	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Evansville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs DRKE	L78–82WO

Ball State

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EVAN 2–2 BALLSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · EVAN 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	BALL 52 @ EVAN 64	EVAN -6.5	EVAN W
Dec 21, 2024-25	EVAN 43 @ BALL 80	BALL -4.5	BALL W
Nov 18, 2023-24	BALL 50 @ EVAN 74	EVAN +1.5	EVAN W
Dec 10, 2022-23	EVAN 69 @ BALL 88	BALL -9.5	BALL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-20

31% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

W L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L L L L L W L W W L L L W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2031%

U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 14	@CAM	L 64-69	+8.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+7.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUF	L 72-85	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 6	vsEMU	L 52-74	-1.5	L −23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@MASS	L 71-79	+10.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 13	@AKR	L 77-87	+20.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 16	vsOHIO	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	@CMU	W 68-67	-1.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIU	W 58-53	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 31	@TOL	L 55-73	+8.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	@BGSU	L 52-77	+11.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ULM	W 73-68	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	vsBUF	L 53-63	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 14	vsKENT	L 68-75	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@OHIO	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 20	vsAKR	L 65-78	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsMASS	W 74-73	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 147
Feb 28	@NIU	W 79-43	+1.5	W +37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	@WMU	W 74-71	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	vsCMU	W 85-69	-2.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

CAM

L 64-69

+3.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−1.5

BUF

L 72-85

−6.5

EMU

L 52-74

−23.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+10.5

OHIO

W 76-71

+10.5

CMU

W 68-67

−0.5

NIU

W 58-53

−0.5

TOL

L 55-73

−9.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−13.5

ULM

W 73-68

+0.5

BUF

L 53-63

−11.5

KENT

L 68-75

+0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−2.5

AKR

L 65-78

+0.5

MASS

W 74-73

+4.5

NIU

W 79-43

+37.5

WMU

W 74-71

+4.5

CMU

W 85-69

+13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

CAM

L 64-69

−12.5

M-OH

L 77-86

+15.5

BUF

L 72-85

+11.5

EMU

L 52-74

−11.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+11.5

OHIO

W 76-71

−0.5

CMU

W 68-67

−7.5

NIU

W 58-53

−30.5

TOL

L 55-73

−18.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−8.5

ULM

W 73-68

−2.5

BUF

L 53-63

−25.5

KENT

L 68-75

−0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−19.5

AKR

L 65-78

−4.5

MASS

W 74-73

+3.5

NIU

W 79-43

−11.5

WMU

W 74-71

+6.5

CMU

W 85-69

+19.5

over 9under 20avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State has the better starters

Position by position: Evansville 1, Ball State 2, even 2

EvansvilleBetterBall State

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

BALLBig

G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

EVANBig

G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

BALLSmall

G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

Even

F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9

EvansvilleBetterBall State

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

BALLSmall

BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

Even

BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

BALLSmall

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

EVANBig

Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEVAN betterBALL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

Ball State

Guards

Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR

Forwards

M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew

Centers

J. Smith9 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EVAN65.8 #347

BALL66.1 #345

Points per possession

EVAN0.97 #344

BALL1.00 #325

Pace (possessions)

EVAN67.9 #232

BALL65.9 #317

Shooting

Effective FG%

EVAN49.3 #280

BALL47.0 #336

3-point %

EVAN32.3 #268

BALL31.4 #312

3-point attempt rate

EVAN43.1 #109

BALL39.4 #186

Free throw rate

EVAN29.8 #315

BALL31.6 #263

Possessions

Turnover rate

EVAN19.1 #324

BALL16.2 #151

Offensive rebound rate

EVAN22.0 #355

BALL27.1 #290

Assists per game

EVAN12.6 #245

BALL12.4 #259

Defense

Points allowed

EVAN78.3 #275

BALL71.4 #88

Points allowed per possession

EVAN1.15 #329

BALL1.09 #184

Opponent effective FG%

EVAN55.1 #332

BALL52.7 #253

Opponent 3-point %

EVAN37.6 #351

BALL34.8 #239

Turnovers forced

EVAN15.4 #258

BALL18.7 #60

Defensive rebound rate

EVAN69.8 #170

BALL69.0 #204

Steals per game

EVAN5.0 #335

BALL7.5 #88

Blocks per game

EVAN3.3 #171

BALL2.7 #286

EVAN		BALL
Scoring
65.8 #347	Points per game	66.1 #345
0.97 #344	Points per possession	1.00 #325
67.9 #232	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #317
Shooting
49.3 #280	Effective FG%	47.0 #336
32.3 #268	3-point %	31.4 #312
43.1 #109	3-point attempt rate	39.4 #186
29.8 #315	Free throw rate	31.6 #263
Possessions
19.1 #324	Turnover rate	16.2 #151
22.0 #355	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #290
12.6 #245	Assists per game	12.4 #259
Defense
78.3 #275	Points allowed	71.4 #88
1.15 #329	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #184
55.1 #332	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #253
37.6 #351	Opponent 3-point %	34.8 #239
15.4 #258	Turnovers forced	18.7 #60
69.8 #170	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #204
5.0 #335	Steals per game	7.5 #88
3.3 #171	Blocks per game	2.7 #286

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs C Michigan85–69
W@ W Michigan74–71
W@ N Illinois79–43
Wvs UMass74–73
Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Evansville Purple Aces at Ball State Cardinals

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Evansville

Ball State

Ball State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Evansville

Ball State