1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. BCU @ UVA
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Virginia Cavaliers

John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
#202BCUBethune
@
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BCUThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 90–60 · win probability UVA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

BCU 0, UVA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
UVA offense vs BCU defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 218th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BCU has played the 244th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UVABig
BCU offense vs UVA defense
Offense 188th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BCU 30.1%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: BCU 68.3%, UVA 70.8%
UVABig
Three-pointers
BCU hits 33.0% and allows 32.9%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 29.7% and 46.7% of their shots
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BCU 51.0 and allows 49.7; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: BCU plays 71.8 a game (43rd fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
UVASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BCU 19.2%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: BCU 15.8%, UVA 15.4%
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BCU 25%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: BCU 9, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UVASmall
Home court
UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, BCU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BCU 40.9, UVA 32.3. Allowed: BCU 38.6, UVA 32.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -30.0—
Total—149.8—
Projected score—BCU 59.9 · UVA 89.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -17.7—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreBCU 26.2 · UVA 43.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Bethune 0, Virginia 5, even 0
BethuneBetterVirginia
G K. Branch TR11.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 24
UVABig
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G J. Morris TR11.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 49
UVASmall
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
G J. Jones TR9.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
UVASmall
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
F Q. Heady10.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55
UVASmall
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F D. Johnson TR10 pts · 5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
UVABig
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
BethuneBetterVirginia
BCU offense188th of 366 · -5.8
UVABig
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
BCU defense218th of 366 · -5.7
UVABig
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt-4.2 · 3 players
UVABig
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players
UVABig
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBCU betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bethune
Guards
K. Branch30 min · TRJ. Morris30 min · TRJ. Jones28 min · TRM. Jordan13 min · TRK. Patton8 min · TRK. MurphyNew
Forwards
Q. Heady26 minD. Johnson26 min · TRD. Perez-Rouzan24 minV. Boskovic21 min · TRI. Ezuma8 min · TRJ. SmithNew
Centers
M. Martinez16 min · TR
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BCUUVA
Scoring
74.5 #175Points per game80.4 #57
1.04 #273Points per possession1.19 #21
71.8 #43Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
51.0 #195Effective FG%54.6 #49
33.0 #2303-point %36.3 #48
29.7 #3533-point attempt rate46.7 #36
40.9 #48Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
19.2 #329Turnover rate16.0 #141
30.1 #194Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
13.3 #195Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
77.5 #251Points allowed68.8 #46
1.08 #157Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
49.7 #88Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
32.9 #112Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
15.8 #229Turnovers forced15.4 #256
68.3 #242Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
6.8 #147Steals per game6.3 #199
4.5 #34Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bethune

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View67–71
  • L@ Florida A&M77–81
  • W@ Southern82–79
  • W@ Grambling76–71
  • Wvs Alabama A&M85–76

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.